See on the daily bar chart for the June U.S. dollar index futures that prices are in an uptrend and last week hit a new high for the year. The greenback bulls are in firm technical control, to suggest more upside price action in the near term. Remember, too, that price trends in the currency markets tend to be stronger and longer-lasting than price trends in other markets. Stay tuned!
Daily Morning Report
World Stock Markets Mixed Monday, but Attitudes Still Generally Upbeat
Monday, March 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The Dow Jones Industrial average is pointed lower mainly due to a big drop in Boeing shares after another one of its airliners crashed in Africa over the weekend.
Traders and investors are mostly upbeat to start the trading week, following dour economic data out of the U.S. and China late last week. The U.S jobs report last Friday showed a sharp drop in the growth of non-farm payrolls, while China’s latest import and export numbers were down.
The U.S.-China trade talks appear to be moving closer to a formal agreement following a report over the weekend that the head of China’s central bank said his country will not devalue the yuan to boost China’s exports.
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in a rare TV interview on Sunday, reiterated the U.S. economic outlook is favorable and said there is no need to raise or lower interest rates at present.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer and not far below last week’s new high for the year. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around below $56.50 a barrel. Crude has been trading sideways for the past two weeks. The International Energy Agency today reported the U.S. will become the world’s largest oil exporter by 2021—surpassing both Saudi Arabia and Russia. The U.S. is already the world’s largest oil producer, due to the boom in shale-oil production.
U.S. economic reports due for release Monday include retail sales, manufacturing and trade inventories, and the employment trends index. President Trump also releases his fiscal year 2020 budget.
–Jim
Dour Chinese Trade Data Spooks World Marketplace Friday
Friday, March 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Chinese stocks had their worst daily performance in five months Friday following a bearish report on exports. In February, Chinese exports dropped a shocking 20.7% from the same period a year ago. Imports in the period were down 5.2%. The data underscored the damage inflicted on the world’s second-largest economy from the trade war with the U.S. Possibly somewhat mitigating those dour numbers is the fact that long Chinese public holidays in the period can distort the numbers.
Also overhanging the marketplace is the surprising announcement by the European Central Bank on Thursday that it is providing additional liquidity to the Euro zone banking system to try to stimulate the listing Euro zone economy. The ECB also significantly reduced its forecast for Euro zone GDP to just 1.1% growth in 2019, from a forecast of a 1.7% gain it made in December.
Not surprisingly, what just a few days ago seemed like a “done deal” on a U.S.-China trade agreement, there are now reports that some Trump administration officials say an agreement is not a certainty.
Focus of the marketplace today is also on the U.S. March jobs report from the Labor Department, due out Friday morning. That’s arguably the most important U.S. economic data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to come in at up 180,000. The ADP national employment report for February, released on Wednesday, showed a rise of 183,000, which was close to market expectations for a rise of 185,000.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker on a corrective pullback after hitting a new high for the year on Thursday. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading just below $56.00 a barrel.
The other U.S. economic report due for release Friday is new residential construction.
–Jim
E-Mini S&P Stock Index Uptrend May Be “Rolling Over”
See on the daily bar chart for the June S&P e-mini stock index futures that prices are still in an uptrend, but that uptrend could be “rolling over” and dying. See at the bottom of the chart that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) index has recently produced a bearish line crossover signal for the first time since December. U.S. stock index bulls need to step up and show some power very soon or the price uptred will be negated. Stay tuned!
World Stock Markets Weaker Thursday; ECB Meeting, U.S. Jobs Data In Focus
Thursday, March 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.
On the U.S.-China trade dispute front, some downbeat comments from a U.S. trade official regarding the ability of the world’s two largest economies to come to an agreement has somewhat dented worldwide trader and investor risk appetite.
In overnight news, the Euro zone fourth-quarter gross domestic product was reported at up 0.2% from the third quarter and up 1.1%, year-on-year. Those figures were mostly in line with market expectations but show an anemic Euro zone economy.
Traders are awaiting the outcome of today’s European Central Bank regular monetary policy meeting. The ECB is not expected to change its interest rates at this meeting, but ECB President Mario Draghi is expected at his press conference after the meeting to make reference to a more accommodative ECB money policy in the coming months, in order to stimulate the Euro zone economy.
The U.S. March jobs report from the Labor Department is due out Friday morning. That’s arguably the most important U.S. economic data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to come in at up 180,000. The ADP national employment report for February, released on Wednesday, showed a rise of 183,000, which was close to market expectations for a rise of 185,000.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. The greenback bulls have gained technical strength recently. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $56.50 a barrel.
U.S. economic reports due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, revised productivity and costs, monthly chain store sales, and consumer credit.
–Jim
Global Stock Markets Pause at Mid-Week; U.S. Trade Data Awaited
Wednesday, March 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Asian and European stock markets were narrowly mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The world marketplace remains in a generally “risk-on” mood.
Traders and investors are awaiting U.S. trade data due to be released shortly, as it could provide clues on the impact on the U.S. economy from the U.S.-China trade war. The consensus forecast for the U.S. trade deficit in December is $57 billion, overall.
In overnight news, the Paris-based OECD think tank released a report saying a finalized U.S.-China trade deal is not likely to give the world economy a significant boost. The report said even if a deal is reached between the world’s two largest economies, there will remain uncertainty over matters that the trade deal is not likely to address, such as China’s rules for U.S. companies doing business in China. The OECD also reduced its growth projections for most of the major world’s economies for this year and in 2020. The report predicts overall world economic growth at 3.3% this year, which is down from the OECD’s last projection in November of 3.5% growth for 2019.
Attention of the marketplace is turning to the European Central Bank’s regular monetary policy meeting on Thursday. The ECB is expected to loosen its purse strings and provide more low-interest financing to Euro zone banks in order to stimulate an anemic Euro zone economy.
The U.S. March jobs report from the Labor Department is due out Friday morning. That’s arguably the most important U.S. economic data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to come in at up 180,000.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly firmer. The greenback bulls have regained technical strength recently. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $56.00 a barrel.
U.S. economic reports due for release Wednesday include the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the international trade in goods and services report, the Federal Reserve’s beige book, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim