Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, November 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight, following the solid losses posted in the U.S. stock indexes on Monday. Technology stocks are taking the brunt of the selling pressure recently. It still appears the U.S. stock indexes put in at least near-term tops last month, if not major market tops. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

It could be a quieter trading week as the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday falls on Thursday. U.S. markets close early Wednesday, with Friday the “Black Friday” sale affair that finds many traders and investors out for the day, shopping for Christmas gift deals.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index trading slightly higher and not far below this month’s 1.5-year high. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly higher on a corrective bounce after hitting an 11-month low last week.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, and new residential construction.

–Jim

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Monday, November 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mixed in subdued trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are slightly lower in early U.S. trading.

There are no major news developments early this week to stoke the markets. Reports the CIA has named the Saudi Crown Prince as the one who ordered the killing of the Saudi journalist last month are not moving the markets. Most believe the U.S. has too much at stake with the Saudis as their Middle East ally and U.S. arms purchaser to make a big deal over the matter.

It could be a quieter trading week as the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday falls on Thursday. U.S. markets close early Wednesday, with Friday the “Black Friday” sale affair that finds many traders and investors out for the day, shopping for Christmas gift deals.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index trading slightly lower but still not far below this month’s 1.5-year high. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly higher on a corrective bounce after hitting an 11-month low of $54.75 last week.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes quarterly retail e-commerce sales and the NAHB housing market index.

–Jim

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The Euro currency futures market is in a solid price downtrend on the daily bar chart and this week hit a 16-month low. The bears are in solid near-term technical control and there are no early chart clues to suggest that a market bottom is close at hand. Importantly, trends in the currency markets tend to be stronger and longer-lasting than price trends in other markets. Stay tuned!

Friday, November 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mixed in subdued trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index for October was reported up 0.2% from September and up 2.2%, year-on-year. Those numbers were in line with market expectations.

European traders and investors are still focused on the turmoil in the U.K. government regarding the U.K’s exit from the European Union (Brexit). The uncertainty of the matter has pressured European stock markets, the Euro currency and the British pound.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index trading slightly lower but still not far below this week’s 1.5-year high. The strong U.S. economy compared to most other world economies, and the interest rate differentials in those economies that see U.S. rates significantly higher, are bullish underlying elements that are likely to continue to provide strong support for the greenback.

Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher on a corrective bounce after hitting and 11-month low of $54.75 earlier this week. The steep slide in oil prices is a bearish element for most of the raw commodity sector, as oil is arguably the leader of that sector.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes industrial production and capacity utilization, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, and Treasury international capital data.

–Jim

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The Nymex crude oil futures market careened to an 11-month low below $55.00 a barrel on Tuesday. In less than six weeks’ time the oil market has dropped over $20.00 a barrel in price. There are no early chart clues to suggest the steep price decline is ending. However, it’s likely that majority of the down-move in this bear market in oil has already occurred. Also, the crude oil futures market is short-term oversold and due for a good corrective upside bounce very soon. See at the bottom of the chart that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is presently reading 9.43. Any RSI reading below 30.00 suggests a market is overdone on the downside and due for a corrective rebound. Stay tuned!

Wednesday, November 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. Asian shares were mixed to firmer and European stock indexes were mostly lower. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

The big drop in crude oil prices has spooked the world marketplace. Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady today, after careening to an 11-month low of $54.75 a barrel on Tuesday. In less than six weeks’ time Nymex crude prices have dropped by over $20 a barrel. The steep slide in oil prices is a bearish element for most of the raw commodity sector, as oil is arguably the leader of that sector.

European investors are unsettled at mid-week. Reports said U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has told her cabinet members to back her on her Brexit agenda, or quit. The Euro currency fell to a 16-month low against the U.S. dollar on Monday. Italian bond yields rose to a three-week high today as the Italian government and EU officials wrangle over the specifics of Italy’s budget.

In other overnight news, China’s industrial output was reported up a better-than-expected 5.9% in October, year-on-year. However, China’s retail sales rose by 8.6% in October, which is down from a 9.2% pace in September, year-on-year.

Germany’s gross domestic product shrank 0.8% in the third quarter, for the slowest pace of growth for the leading European Union economy in over five years. Meantime, the Euro zone GDP was reported up 0.2% in the third quarter, and up 1.7%, year-on-year, which was in line with market expectations.

The U.S. dollar index is trading firmer today and not far below this week’s 1.5-year high.

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