Daily Morning Report

Thursday, October 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European stock indexes mostly firmer and Asian indexes mostly lower. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

Traders and investors are awaiting the results of a Turkish investigation into the disappearance of a Saudi journalist. The Turks say the journalist was killed and the Saudis deny knowing anything about it. This matter is likely to come to a head in the next few days, with President Trump saying results of the investigation are likely yet this week. If the Saudis are complicit, ramifications for the world markets will be significant. Some press reports say the Saudis killed the journalist.

U.S. Treasury bond yields are on the rise again following FOMC minutes released Wednesday afternoon that were deemed a bit hawkish on U.S. monetary policy.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index slightly lower on a corrective pullback from Wednesday’s solid gains. Meantime, November Nymex crude oil prices are lower, hit a four-week low and are trading around $69.00 a barrel. Brent crude oil has now fallen below the $80.00-per-barrel level. Rising U.S. oil stockpiles this week are bearish for the oil market.

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See on the daily bar chart for the December e-mini S&P futures that prices have rebounded from last week’s spike low, to gain back about half of the losses seen during the October swoon. Still, major near-term chart damage was inflicted in the sell-off and the bulls have much more work to do in the near term to completely repair that damage. Technical odds still favor a market top being in place for at least the near term, if not the longer term. Stay tuned!

Wednesday, October 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins, on corrective pullbacks from Tuesday’s strong gains that began to repair the recent serious chart damage. Daily volatility is still elevated compared to recent weeks and months.

The rift between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia regarding a missing Saudi journalist who many think was killed by the Saudi Kingdom remains near the front burner of the marketplace. The U.S. Secretary of State was in Saudi Arabia talking to the king and now is in Turkey to see its president. According to news reports, the Saudi king could be caught up in a cover-up of the reporter’s murder. President Trump said there would be “severe punishment” of the Saudi Kingdom if it is determined it was complicit in the death of the journalist. There is a lot at stake for both sides.

The U.S. economic highlight at mid-week will be the afternoon release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting that was held in late-September. Traders and investors will parse the report for clues on futures direction and timing of U.S. monetary policy, and also focus on comments on the U.S. economy and inflation.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Meantime, November Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading just around $71.50 a barrel.

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Tuesday, October 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European stocks mostly up and Asian stocks mostly down. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

European shares were lifted today by reports the new Italian government is more or less falling in line with European Union constricts, with the new Italian Prime Minister saying Italy’s membership in the EU is “unrenounceable.”

The rift between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia regarding a missing Saudi journalist who many think was killed by the Saudi Kingdom is still on the front burner of the marketplace. The U.S. Secretary of State is in Saudi Arabia talking to the king. President Trump over the weekend said there would be “severe punishment” of the Saudi Kingdom if it was determined it killed the journalist. Some reports are now saying a Saudi may admit to killing the journalist.

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Nymex crude oil futures prices were hammered lower last week, which negated a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. There are now early technical clues the oil market has put in at least a near-term market top, if not a major market top. It will likely take a geopolitical event in the Middle East to drive oil prices above their recent highs. Otherwise, I look for oil prices to trade sideways-at-best in the coming weeks, if not sideways-to-lower. Stay tuned!

Monday, October 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. There is still risk aversion in the marketplace after last week’s high volatility in the world stock markets, led by the U.S. stock indexers that hit 3.5-month lows.

Gold prices today hit a 10-week high on more safe-haven demand and more short covering in the futures market. Gold could be getting some safe-haven buying interest due to the growing rift between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia regarding a missing Saudi journalist who many think was killed by the Saudi Kingdom. President Trump said there would be “severe punishment” of the Saudi Kingdom if it was determined it killed the journalist. A Saudi government official said his country could retaliate against the U.S. by driving crude oil up to a price of over $100 or $200 a barrel, or higher.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index lower on a corrective pullback from recent gains. Meantime, November Nymex crude oil prices are firmer on a corrective bounce from recent selling pressure that begins to suggest that market has topped out.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes retail sales, the Empire State manufacturing survey, and manufacturing and trade inventories.

–Jim

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