Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, November 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed higher at the New York opening, following strong losses on Tuesday that wiped out this year’s gains in the stock indexes. It still appears the U.S. stock indexes have put in at least near-term tops, if not major market tops.

Today is likely to see a quieter trading session in the U.S., ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. Many U.S. markets close early Wednesday. Friday is the “Black Friday” sale affair that finds many traders and investors out for the day, shopping for Christmas gift deals.

In overnight news, the Paris-based OECD think tank forecast slowing global economic growth in 2019—to 3.5% from 3.7% in its previous forecast.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index trading weaker but not far below this month’s 1.5-year high. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher on a corrective rebound from Tuesday’s sharp losses that pushed prices to a 12-month low of $52.77 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, durable goods orders, leading economic indicators, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, existing home sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

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The natural gas futures market has recently shot to a 4.5-year high, amid extreme daily price volatility that has blown traders and fund managers out of the water–and out of business. Fundamentally, colder weather in the U.S. and worries about natural gas storage supplies keeping up with demand have provided the bulls with upside energy. Look for more daily price volatility in the near term and the bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Stay tuned!

Tuesday, November 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight, following the solid losses posted in the U.S. stock indexes on Monday. Technology stocks are taking the brunt of the selling pressure recently. It still appears the U.S. stock indexes put in at least near-term tops last month, if not major market tops. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

It could be a quieter trading week as the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday falls on Thursday. U.S. markets close early Wednesday, with Friday the “Black Friday” sale affair that finds many traders and investors out for the day, shopping for Christmas gift deals.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index trading slightly higher and not far below this month’s 1.5-year high. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly higher on a corrective bounce after hitting an 11-month low last week.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, and new residential construction.

–Jim

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Monday, November 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mixed in subdued trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are slightly lower in early U.S. trading.

There are no major news developments early this week to stoke the markets. Reports the CIA has named the Saudi Crown Prince as the one who ordered the killing of the Saudi journalist last month are not moving the markets. Most believe the U.S. has too much at stake with the Saudis as their Middle East ally and U.S. arms purchaser to make a big deal over the matter.

It could be a quieter trading week as the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday falls on Thursday. U.S. markets close early Wednesday, with Friday the “Black Friday” sale affair that finds many traders and investors out for the day, shopping for Christmas gift deals.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index trading slightly lower but still not far below this month’s 1.5-year high. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly higher on a corrective bounce after hitting an 11-month low of $54.75 last week.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes quarterly retail e-commerce sales and the NAHB housing market index.

–Jim

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The Euro currency futures market is in a solid price downtrend on the daily bar chart and this week hit a 16-month low. The bears are in solid near-term technical control and there are no early chart clues to suggest that a market bottom is close at hand. Importantly, trends in the currency markets tend to be stronger and longer-lasting than price trends in other markets. Stay tuned!

Friday, November 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mixed in subdued trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index for October was reported up 0.2% from September and up 2.2%, year-on-year. Those numbers were in line with market expectations.

European traders and investors are still focused on the turmoil in the U.K. government regarding the U.K’s exit from the European Union (Brexit). The uncertainty of the matter has pressured European stock markets, the Euro currency and the British pound.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index trading slightly lower but still not far below this week’s 1.5-year high. The strong U.S. economy compared to most other world economies, and the interest rate differentials in those economies that see U.S. rates significantly higher, are bullish underlying elements that are likely to continue to provide strong support for the greenback.

Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher on a corrective bounce after hitting and 11-month low of $54.75 earlier this week. The steep slide in oil prices is a bearish element for most of the raw commodity sector, as oil is arguably the leader of that sector.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes industrial production and capacity utilization, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, and Treasury international capital data.

–Jim

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