Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, October 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European stocks mostly up and Asian stocks mostly down. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

European shares were lifted today by reports the new Italian government is more or less falling in line with European Union constricts, with the new Italian Prime Minister saying Italy’s membership in the EU is “unrenounceable.”

The rift between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia regarding a missing Saudi journalist who many think was killed by the Saudi Kingdom is still on the front burner of the marketplace. The U.S. Secretary of State is in Saudi Arabia talking to the king. President Trump over the weekend said there would be “severe punishment” of the Saudi Kingdom if it was determined it killed the journalist. Some reports are now saying a Saudi may admit to killing the journalist.

Continue Reading

Nymex crude oil futures prices were hammered lower last week, which negated a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. There are now early technical clues the oil market has put in at least a near-term market top, if not a major market top. It will likely take a geopolitical event in the Middle East to drive oil prices above their recent highs. Otherwise, I look for oil prices to trade sideways-at-best in the coming weeks, if not sideways-to-lower. Stay tuned!

Monday, October 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. There is still risk aversion in the marketplace after last week’s high volatility in the world stock markets, led by the U.S. stock indexers that hit 3.5-month lows.

Gold prices today hit a 10-week high on more safe-haven demand and more short covering in the futures market. Gold could be getting some safe-haven buying interest due to the growing rift between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia regarding a missing Saudi journalist who many think was killed by the Saudi Kingdom. President Trump said there would be “severe punishment” of the Saudi Kingdom if it was determined it killed the journalist. A Saudi government official said his country could retaliate against the U.S. by driving crude oil up to a price of over $100 or $200 a barrel, or higher.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index lower on a corrective pullback from recent gains. Meantime, November Nymex crude oil prices are firmer on a corrective bounce from recent selling pressure that begins to suggest that market has topped out.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes retail sales, the Empire State manufacturing survey, and manufacturing and trade inventories.

–Jim

Continue Reading

Friday, October 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight on corrective bounces from this week’s strong selling pressure. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly higher openings when the New York day session begins. However, keep your seatbelts buckled today because volatility is likely to remain high on this last trading day of the week, heading into an uncertain weekend not knowing what to expect come Monday morning.

Price action this week from a technical perspective strongly suggests the U.S. stock indexes have put in near-term tops, if not major tops. If so, such is a bullish development for the competing hard assets like the metals.

Gold prices have backed off a bit today after the strongest one-day gains in over two years were seen on Thursday. Now, the yellow metal is in a much better technical posture to suggest higher prices are likely in the coming weeks, or longer.

News U.S. President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will sit down and talk in November at the G20 meeting in Argentina could be helping to assuage market concerns today. For months the two largest economies have been on a downhill slide in relations. The Chinese yuan rebounded against the U.S. dollar today, in part on that news.

Another worrisome factor in the marketplace this week is notions the strong U.S. economic expansion could be coming to an end, due in part to a Federal Reserve monetary policy that got too aggressive in raising interest rates. President Trump again admonished the Fed this week for raising rates too fast. He called the Fed “crazy” and “loco.”

Continue Reading

Global stock markets have been hammered this week. U.S. stock indexes are at three-month lows. Price action this week strongly suggests the U.S. stock indexes have put in near-term tops, if not major tops. The sharp decline in the Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar is in focus again late this week. The depreciating yuan makes China’s exports cheaper on the world market, but it also invites capital outflows from China. The U.S. has warned China about using its currency to gain world trade advantages. The keen risk aversion now in the marketplace is also due in part to rising world government bond yields, with the implications being rising inflation along with the negative impact on global stock markets. U.S. Treasury prices are actually higher today, on safe-haven demand. Discussion among traders and investors now is whether the Fed will take its foot off the gas on raising U.S. interest rates. President Trump on Wednesday, following the U.S. stock market sell-off, said “the Fed is making a mistake” and “I think the Fed has gone crazy.” Such rhetoric from the U.S. president will surely garner the attention of the Fed’s FOMC members who set interest rate policy. Stay tuned!

Thursday, October 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were hammered lower overnight,
following the U.S. stock-market pounding that took place
Wednesday. China’s stock market dropped over 5% and hit a
four-year low overnight. U.S. stock indexes are poised for
sharply lower openings and will be at three-month lows when
the New York day session begins. You were warned in this
report on Monday that the U.S. stock indexes were showing
clues of topping out. Price action Wednesday and today
strongly suggest the U.S. stock indexes have put in near-
term tops, if not major tops.

The sharp decline in the Chinese yuan against the U.S.
dollar is in focus again late this week. The depreciating
yuan makes China’s exports cheaper on the world market, but
it also invites capital outflows from China. The U.S. has
warned China about using its currency to gain world trade
advantages.

Continue Reading