Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, July 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. In quieter summertime trading, U.S. stock indexes are near multi-month highs, to underscore the “risk-on” trader mentality in the marketplace at present.

While not really market-sensitive, the media is still buzzing about the summit meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin on Monday. The news coverage is somewhat taking trader and investor attention away from other matters that may be more relevant to markets.

On tap today, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee on monetary policy. The marketplace will parse his words for clues on timing of future interest rate increases.

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Monday, July 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

There is still little risk aversion among global traders and investors, despite a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. This is keeping a flow of monies into world stock markets, especially in light of a floundering raw commodity sector at present, due to the U.S.-China major trade dispute.

In overnight news, China’s gross domestic product growth in the second quarter was reported at 6.7%, year-on-year, which is lower than the 6.8% growth rate posted in the first quarter. The growth rate is also about in line with the Chinese government’s 6.5% annual growth target.

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The cotton market bulls are back in business after prices closed locked up the 400-point limit on Thursday, following a very bullish USDA supply and demand report. The big upmove put December cotton futures back into a bullish near-term technical posture. While a normal corrective pullback from Thursday’s big gains was seen as of this writing Friday morning, look for the cotton futures market to at least challenge the early-June high in the coming weeks. Stay tuned!

Friday, July 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. stock indexes hit multi-month highs overnight. There is little risk aversion in the marketplace at present, which is keeping a flow of investor monies into world equities markets.

The British pound is under some pressure versus the U.S. dollar today as President Trump has criticized U.K. Prime Minister May for her Brexit strategy. May is perceived to be in a very weak position in her leadership, at present.

The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices weaker on follow-through selling from strong losses posted Wednesday, and are trading just above $70.00 a barrel. A lower close in the Nymex oil futures market today would be a technical clue that crude oil has put in at least a near-term top, if not a major top.

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Thursday, July 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

U.S. President Trump is in Europe meeting with European leaders, with a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin scheduled for next Monday. The marketplace will watch Trump’s meetings closely. The just-concluded NATO meeting was declared a success by Trump.

The June U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report due out on Thursday morning is seen being up 0.2% from May. The June producer price index report, released on Wednesday morning, was also up 0.2% from May.

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The U.S.-China trade war has hammered the grain markets recently, as grain market prices are at or near their recent for-the-move lows. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt has been non-threatening for the corn and soybean crops, with USDA crop ratings very high for this time of year. However, U.S. export demand for corn and soybeans has been strong recently, and it’s my bias that grain prices at present levels are under-valued based upon world supply and demand fundamentals. At some point the extremely bearish psychology in the grain markets will change, and probably sooner that most market watchers reckon. Stay tuned!