Daily Morning Report

Monday, July 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

There were no major markets-moving news developments over the weekend. Key U.S. economic data released this week includes the producer price index on Wednesday and the consumer price index on Thursday.

One worrisome development among economists in recent months is the very flat U.S. Treasury yield curve (the yield difference between the 2-year and 10-year notes) that has now fallen to a level below 0.3%. If the yield curve inverts, whereby the 2-year note yield rises above the 10-year note yield, such would strongly suggest a U.S. recession is on the horizon. The very closely watched yield curve and its potential for inverting could keep the Federal Reserve from raising U.S. interest rates as quickly as it would like—given the present stronger U.S. economic growth pace.

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Friday, July 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

The important U.S. employment report from the Labor Department is out Friday morning, with the non-farm jobs number expected to come in at up 195,000 in June. Thursday’s ADP national employment report for June showed a rise of 177,000 jobs. A big miss on the non-farm jobs number this morning, from the consensus forecast, will likely move many markets.

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The copper market has been hammered lower and this week hit a 12-month low. The copper market has the nickname “Dr. Copper” because the red metal can be an early predictor of stock market price trends. If one of the world’s leading industrial metals is trending sharply lower, then that’s an ominous clue for world stock markets. Stay tuned!

Thursday, July 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

The U.S. and China remain headed for the Friday showdown on putting into effect their already-announced trade sanctions against each other. A Chinese official said Thursday the U.S. is firing shots to the world, including itself,” on the trade matter.

Some important U.S. economic data is due out the next two days, including the Fed’s FOMC minutes on Thursday afternoon and the jobs report from the Labor Department on Friday.

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Tuesday, July 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

European stock markets were assuaged today on news that German Chancellor Merkel has apparently avoided a political crisis by coming to agreement with other German lawmakers regarding immigration laws.

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The grain markets have been hammered the past few weeks and have hit contract lows during that time. Global trade war disputes that have cut into U.S. grain exports and very good growing weather in the U.S. midsection are major bearish elements at work in the grain futures markets at present. As the calendar has just turned to July, it’s a timeframe that history shows can see grain price trends reverse or accelerate. The bulls have some very heavy lifting to do to jumpstart price up-trends on the charts. It’s going to take a weather market scare in the coming few weeks to reignite the floundering grain market bulls. An easing of world trade tensions would also benefit the grain market bulls. Stay tuned!