Daily Morning Report

The U.S. Treasury bond and Treasury note futures markets have hit new contract lows in prices (rising yields) as worries about rising inflation and interest rates are gripping the world marketplace. The T-Bond and T-Note bears are in strong technical command, which suggests still more downside price pressure is coming in the near term, or longer. The big downdraft in the bond market is also suggesting the world stock markets are headed for some serious trouble, too. The beneficiaries of the big sell offs in stock and bond markets: hard assets like raw commodities. Stay tuned!–Jim

Monday, February 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes have become very wobbly. Bearish weekly low closes in the indexes on Friday were a technical clue that near-term market tops are in place. Worries about rising interest rates and inflation worldwide, as evidenced by rising world bond yields, have spooked the global equities markets.

The key “outside markets” on Monday morning see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading above $65.00 a barrel.

The new Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, will be sworn in today.

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Friday, February 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes have become wobbly this week. Bearish weekly low closes in the indexes on Friday would be a technical clue that near-term market tops are in place.

In overnight news, the Euro zone December producer price index was reported up 0.2% from November and up 2.2%, year-on-year. Those numbers were in line with market expectations.

Traders and investors are awaiting Friday morning’s monthly U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department. This is arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number consensus forecast comes in at up 177,000. A miss from the forecasts on this number is likely to prompt markets volatility in the immediate aftermath of the 7:30 a.m. CST jobs report.

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The grains have endured a long bear market, but it finally appears to have run its course. Just the past few weeks the corn, soybean and wheat futures markets have shown price strength, including fledgling uptrends being in place on the daily charts. It’s my bias that 2018 will be a good year for the grain market bulls, including experiencing those summertime weather markets that can quickly goose prices. Stay tuned!–Jim

Thursday, February 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

Traders and investors are still digesting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that concluded Wednesday afternoon with a statement that made no changes in U.S. monetary policy. None were expected. The statement said the U.S. economy is gaining strength, to also suggest rising inflation. The market read the report as neutral to maybe just slightly hawkish. Gold prices rallied moderately in the wake of the FOMC statement, but other markets saw little reaction. That was Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s last FOMC meeting.

Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s monthly U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department. This is arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number consensus forecast comes in at up 177,000.

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Wednesday, January 31–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins, following the solid losses posted Tuesday.

In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its consumer price index for January at up 1.3% versus up 1.4% in December, year-on-year. The January number was in line with market expectations.

Tuesday evening President Trump delivered his first state-of-the-union speech. Trump’s remarks did not have a major impact on the markets.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting concludes Wednesday afternoon with a statement. No changes in U.S. monetary policy are expected. However, the FOMC statement could contain clues about the timing of futures interest rate increases from the Fed. This will be Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s last FOMC meeting.

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