The bull market in U.S. stock indexes rolls on, as the major indexes this week hit new contract and record highs. There are no early, solid technical clues to suggest market tops are close at hand for the U.S. indexes. The “Santa Claus” rally that stock markets typically see at the end of the year has been taking place ALL of this year. For the March e-mini S&P futures, prices will have to drop below chart support at 2,650.00 before bullish near-term technical power is significantly dented. Stay tuned!–Jim
Daily Morning Report
U.S. Tax Bill Passage Adds to Investor/Trader Risk Appetite
Wednesday, December 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. House and Senate passed the highly anticipated tax-reform bill Wednesday. Now the bill heads back to the House for final approval and then a signature by President Trump. Lower U.S. tax rates coming in 2018 have added to the upbeat attitudes among traders and investors worldwide.
In overnight news, reports said China is expected to soon launch a Chinese yuan-based crude oil futures market. China wants to take at least some of crude oil’s market-making out of London and New York. China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil. A successful China crude oil futures market would challenge the dominance of the U.S. dollar in world crude oil pricing. However, many energy market watchers say the Chinese have a long way to go before a China oil futures market would seriously challenge those in New York and London.
World Stock Markets Mixed in Quieter Dealings
Tuesday, December 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. There continues to be little risk aversion in the world marketplace, and that’s bullish for world stock markets, many of which are at or near record or multi-year highs.
Look for trading activity in most markets to dwindle as this week progresses, ahead of the upcoming Christmas holiday weekend.
In overnight news, the closely watched German Ifo business climate index fell in December to 117.2 from the record high of 117.6 in November. A number of 117.5 was expected for December.
Soybeans Dragged Down By Bearish Corn, Wheat Markets
The firmly bearish postures of the corn and wheat futures markets are finally bringing down the soybean futures. See on the daily bar chart for March soybeans that recent price action has negated an uptrend line. The bears have regained the near-term technical advantage, to suggest soybean prices will drift sideways to lower at least into the end of the year, and possible the first few weeks of January. The fundamental focus of the soybean market now turns to growing conditions in South American soybean country. Stay tuned!–Jim
Worldwide Trader/Investor Attitudes Remain Very Upbeat
Monday, December 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and at record highs when the New York day session begins. There is growing optimism in the world marketplace that the U.S. Congress will soon pass tax-reform legislation that would likely to spur better U.S. economic growth.
The CME Group on Sunday launched its bitcoin futures contract, which is expected to generate much more trading volume than the Cboe futures contract that began trading last week. Early CME futures trading saw bitcoin prices push above $20,000 before backing off.
U.S. Tax Bill Uncertainty Dents Bullish Stock Market Enthusiasm
Friday, December 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. There are now concerns a few Republican U.S. senators are balking at the new tax-reform legislation, after reports earlier this week said a compromise had been reached on the bill. Many market watchers would argue the recent world stock market rallies were based in large part on ideas of lower U.S. corporate taxes. Now with a bit more uncertainty on the eventual U.S. tax-reform bill becoming law, bullish traders and investors are wavering a bit. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to weaker openings when the New York day session begins.
In overnight news, Russia’s central bank cut its main interest rate by 0.5%. The move boosted the Russian ruble.
In other news, Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz on Thursday compared buying bitcoin as an investment vehicle to gambling. One analyst said Poloz’s comments were a direct warning to bitcoin buyers.