Daily Morning Report

The firmly bearish postures of the corn and wheat futures markets are finally bringing down the soybean futures. See on the daily bar chart for March soybeans that recent price action has negated an uptrend line. The bears have regained the near-term technical advantage, to suggest soybean prices will drift sideways to lower at least into the end of the year, and possible the first few weeks of January. The fundamental focus of the soybean market now turns to growing conditions in South American soybean country. Stay tuned!–Jim

Monday, December 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and at record highs when the New York day session begins. There is growing optimism in the world marketplace that the U.S. Congress will soon pass tax-reform legislation that would likely to spur better U.S. economic growth.

The CME Group on Sunday launched its bitcoin futures contract, which is expected to generate much more trading volume than the Cboe futures contract that began trading last week. Early CME futures trading saw bitcoin prices push above $20,000 before backing off.

Continue Reading

Friday, December 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. There are now concerns a few Republican U.S. senators are balking at the new tax-reform legislation, after reports earlier this week said a compromise had been reached on the bill. Many market watchers would argue the recent world stock market rallies were based in large part on ideas of lower U.S. corporate taxes. Now with a bit more uncertainty on the eventual U.S. tax-reform bill becoming law, bullish traders and investors are wavering a bit. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, Russia’s central bank cut its main interest rate by 0.5%. The move boosted the Russian ruble.

In other news, Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz on Thursday compared buying bitcoin as an investment vehicle to gambling. One analyst said Poloz’s comments were a direct warning to bitcoin buyers.

Continue Reading

The silver futures market had been trending solidly lower until prices Wednesday saw solid gains, on short covering and bargain hunting. If there is follow-through buying strength in the silver market this week, such would suggest a near-term market bottom is in place, and that prices can trade at least sideways, if not sideways to higher, in the coming weeks. Stay tuned!–Jim

Thursday, December 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed to weaker Thursday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace is still digesting Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC statement and press conference from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. The Fed raised U.S. interest rates by 0.25%, as expected. However, market watchers were a bit surprised the Fed is projecting tame inflation prospects for the U.S. in the coming months, or longer. This called into question whether the Fed can be as aggressive as it wants to be on its pace of raising interest rates. Thus, the tone of this FOMC meeting, including Yellen’s press conference, was deemed a bit dovish on U.S. monetary policy. Still, the FOMC statement said more interest rate increases are likely in the coming months.

China’s central bank followed the Fed by slightly raising its interest rates Thursday, in an attempt to offset any U.S. rate hike’s impact on the Chinese economy. The European Central Bank and Bank of England hold their regular monetary policy meetings Thursday. No changes in interest rates are expected from those two central banks.

Continue Reading

Wednesday, December 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were steady to mixed in subdued trading overnight, ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting conclusion this afternoon. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

It’s widely expected the Fed will raise U.S. interest rates by 0.25% this afternoon. Fed chair Janet Yellen will also hold what will likely be her final press conference after the FOMC statement. The marketplace will closely examine the Fed’s economic projections for next year, in trying to anticipate the central bank’s monetary policy moves in 2018.

The European Central Bank and Bank of England monetary policy meetings also take place later this week.

Continue Reading