Daily Morning Report

Thursday, February 23–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

Traders and investors have mostly digested the Federal Reserve’s FOMC minutes that were released Wednesday afternoon. The marketplace deemed the minutes as leaning slightly more hawkish than expected, as there were a few FOMC members that wanted a 50-basis-point hike in the Fed fund range at the January meeting. That meeting saw a 25-basis-point rise.

In overnight news, the Euro zone January consumer price index was reported up 8.6%, year-on-year, which was right in line with market expectations.

A feature in the marketplace this week has been rising U.S. Treasury yields, with the benchmark U.S. 10-year note yield inching toward the 4.0% level. That suggests the marketplace is coming to grips with a U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy that will keep interest rates “higher for longer” to successfully tamp down inflation.

The key outside markets this morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer and trading around $74.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.945%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP, which includes the closely watched PCE price index, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer on short covering after hitting a four-week low Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,089.25 and then at 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,983.75 and then at 3,950.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer on short covering after hitting a three-week low Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,300.00 and then at this week’s high of 12,417.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,034.00 and then at 11,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Wednesday hit a three-month low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 124 30/32 and then at this week’s high of 125 30/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 123 30/32 and then at 123 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices Wednesday hit a three-month low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 111.14.5 and then at 111.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 110.30.5 and then at 110.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower and hit a six-week low in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a fledgling downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.0676 and then at this week’s high of 1.0718. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0596 and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of $76.55 and then at this week’s high of $77.74. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $73.80 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the overall chart advantage as near-term price uptrends have been negated. Weekly USDA export sales data is out Friday morning, delayed one day this week by the U.S. holiday on Monday.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, February 22–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings and at four-week lows when the New York day session begins. The stock index bulls have faded recently, including near-term price uptrends on the daily bar chart being negated to suggest near-term market tops are in place.

The U.S. data point of the day Wednesday will be the release of the minutes from the last meeting of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC), due out at 2:00 p.m. EST. Past FOMC minutes releases have moved markets.

The key outside markets this morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower and trading around $75.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.943%. A Wall Street Journal headline Wednesday reads: “Rising bond yields rattle 2023 stock rally.”

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the FOMC minutes and the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail sales indexes.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. A seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,050.00 and then at Monday’s high of 4,089.25. Support for active traders is seen at 3,950.00 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded as a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,200.00 and then at Monday’s high of 12,417.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,000.00 and then at 11,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-month low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 125 even and then at this week’s high of 125 30/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 123 30/32 and then at 123 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a three-month low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 111.16.0 and then at 111.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 110.30.5 and then at 110.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a fledgling downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0718 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0626 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $76.55 and then at this week’s high of $77.74. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $74.00 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to lower overnight. The big news in the grain markets this week is the very early frost that hit Argentina’s soybean crops last weekend. Serious freeze damage likely occurred to some of the bean crop there. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the slight overall chart advantage and near-term price uptrends are now sputtering.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, February 21–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk aversion is elevated to start the U.S. trading week, following President Biden’s surprise visit to the Ukraine and his promise to provide $500 million more in aid to the war-torn nation. This comes at the same time U.S.-China relations continue to deteriorate.

In overnight news, the Euro zone got some upbeat economic news as its February composite purchasing managers index came in at 52.3, which was well above the consensus forecast of 50.5 and compares to the January reading of 50.3. A number above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector.

The key outside markets this morning see the U.S. dollar index modestly higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $77.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.877%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the U.S. flash and services purchasing managers’ indexes and existing home sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and hit a three-week low overnight. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been at least temporarily negated. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 4,096.00 and then at 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,047.75 and then at 4,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the near-term chart advantage but a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 12,466.25 and then at 12,650.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,228.00 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 126 even and then at 126 20/32. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 124 14/32 and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.00.5 and then at 112.11.5. Shorter-term technical support last week’s low of 111.08.5 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a fledgling downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0718 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0626 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of $78.50 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $75.32 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight. Grain traders are uneasy about the Russia-Ukraine grain-shipping deal being extended and that’s bullish for grain prices. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the slight overall chart advantage but there are technical clues the wheat markets have bottomed out.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, February 17–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk aversion is keen to end the trading week. Said market analyst Craig Erlam of OANDA: “Equity markets are ending the week in the red after finally falling victim to the persistent disappointment of U.S. economic data on Thursday. It’s taken a lot but it would appear investors’ eternal optimism is being shaken, with the latest PPI figures finally driving the message home that bringing the U.S. economy in for a soft landing will be extraordinarily challenging and there’ll likely be plenty of turbulence along the way. In reality, the message should have sunk in much sooner but investors were seemingly so convinced that these were just blips in the data that they failed to see how quickly they were stacking up.” Erlam’s comments fall in line with widely followed Morgan Stanley analyst Mike Wilson, who has been right on calling the stock market trajectory the past year or so. Read a Barron’s headline today: “Markets are finally catching up with reality; time to price in rate rises.”

The key outside markets see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher and hitting a five-week high overnight. Nymex crude oil futures prices are solidly lower and trading around $76.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.908% and is on the rise late this week.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export prices and leading economic indicators.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and headed for a technically bearish weekly low close. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,100.00 and then at 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,050.00 and then at 4,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the near-term chart advantage but a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,500.00 and then at this week’s high of 12,792.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 12,243.25 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading and hit a six-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 125 11/32 and then at 126 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 124 14/32 and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a three-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.24.0 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support the overnight low of 111.08.5 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0687 and then at 1.0750. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0600 and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $78.25 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to mostly firmer overnight. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace late this week will squelch the grain market bulls during today’s day session. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the slight overall chart advantage but there are technical clues the wheat markets have bottomed out.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff