Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, March 1–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is not keen to start the new trading month, but neither is risk aversion. An underlying current in the marketplace recently has been notions China’s economic growth will surge this year. A Wall Street Journal article this morning has the headline: “China’s economy seen emerging from zero-Covid shadow.” However, the deteriorating political relations between the U.S. and China have pushed the world’s two largest economies very close to a cold war that could at least partially offset the benefits to the global marketplace of a stronger China economy.

The key outside markets this morning see the U.S. dollar index solidly lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower and trading around $76.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.92%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), the global manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending, domestic auto industry sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,070.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 3,984.75 and then at 3,950.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,394.75 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,124.00 and then at last week’s low of 12,058.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices Tuesday hit a three-month low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 125 20/32 and then at 126 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 124 9/32 and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.25.5 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 111.04.5 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are solidly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart, but just barely. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0750 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0634 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $77.83 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight mild corrective rebounds from this week’s selling pressure. Soybean market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading now. Corn and wheat bears have the overall chart advantage and have momentum on their side, to suggest more selling pressure in those markets in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, February 28–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace has been quieter early this week, amid a lack of major, fresh fundamental news to drive prices.

The key outside markets this morning see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $77.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.943%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, the advance economic indicators report, the monthly house price index, the S&P Core-Logic Case-Shiller home indexes, the Chicago ISM business survey, the Richmond Fed business activity survey, and the consumer confidence index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,070.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 3,984.75 and then at 3,950.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,394.75 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 12,058.00 and then at 11,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a three-month low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 125 20/32 and then at 126 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 124 14/32 and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.25.5 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 111.04.5 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0700 and then at 1.0750. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0601 and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $77.74 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $75.55 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker overnight. Soybean market bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears have the overall chart advantage and have momentum on their side, to suggest more selling pressure in those markets in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, February 27–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian shares mostly lower and European shares mostly higher. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The stock index bulls are still jittery after last week, which saw the worst performance of the year for the U.S. stock indexes. Worries about the Federal Reserve keeping U.S. interest rates higher for longer have left traders and investors with less risk appetite. The Wall Street Journal today reported, “Fear is creeping back into the stock market. To protect against a potential downturn, traders are scooping up hedges at the fastest clip since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.” Traders are betting the CBOE’s daily volatility index (VIX) will rise in the coming weeks. To do that hedging, traders are buying call options on the VIX, said the WSJ.

The key outside markets this morning see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly lower and trading around $76.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.955%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes durable goods orders, pending home sales and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices Friday hit a four-week low. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,070.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 3,984.75 and then at 3,950.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices last Friday hit a four-week low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,394.75 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 12,058.00 and then at 11,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices Friday hit a three-month low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 125 16/32 and then at 126 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 124 23/32 and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Friday hit a three-month low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.16.0 and then at 111.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 111.04.5 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up and hit a seven-week low in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.0677 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0601 and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $76.82 and then at last week’s high of $77.74. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at last week’s low of $73.80. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Soybean market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears the overall chart advantage and have momentum on their side, to suggest more selling pressure in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, February 24–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite this week has not been keen, as the U.S. stock indexes hit multi-week lows on Thursday. It seems that this week it may have finally sunk into the general marketplace that the U.S. will keep its monetary policy tighter for longer, in order to successfully tamp down problematic inflation.

The U.S. data point of the day Friday is the personal income and outlays report for January and its PCE price index component. The PCE core price index is forecast to come in at up 4.4%, year-on-year, which compares with up 4.4% in the December report.

The key outside markets this morning see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer and trading around $75.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.895%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, new residential sales and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Thursday hit a four-week low. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,089.25 and then at 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,974.25 and then at 3,950.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Thursday hit a three-week low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 12,261.00 and then at this week’s high of 12,417.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,028.50 and then at 11,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices Thursday hit a three-month low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 125 12/32 and then at this week’s high of 125 30/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 123 26/32 and then at 123 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices Thursday hit a three-month low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.19.0 and then at 111.28.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 110.25.5 and then at 110.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower and hit a six-week low in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a fledgling downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.0676 and then at this week’s high of 1.0718. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0550 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of $76.55 and then at this week’s high of $77.74. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $73.80 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Soybean market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Corn bulls have lost their chart advantage after solid losses Thursday. Wheat futures bears have the firm overall chart advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff