Daily Morning Report

Monday, October 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. Markets in mainland China were closed for a holiday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is still uneasy to start the month of October, which history shows can be rocky for the stock and financial markets. There are reports and rumors swirling Monday morning that investment bank Credit Suisse may be in financial trouble. Broker SP Angel this morning said in an email dispatch: “A global tightening of liquidity by central banks is hitting the credit sector, with signs of a credit crunch beginning to surface. A syndicate of banks including Barclays and Bank of America cancelled a $3.9 billion debt offering last week amid a lack of demand. Bloomberg reports a group of underwriters including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Credit Suisse took losses estimated at over $1 billion on a debt package to private equity firms amid higher yields and lower demand. Outflows in U.S. investment grade bonds hit their third largest outflow on record last week, following six weeks of withdrawals totaling $22.3 billion. Credit default swaps across major European banks have soared in September, with Credit Suisse’s CEO noting the bank was facing a ‘critical moment.’”

In other overnight news, the U.K. government has scrapped a major part of its tax-cut plan after U.K. and European financial markets became roiled when it was announced. The markets were somewhat assuaged by pivot from the U.K. government.

The Euro zone September manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 48.4 versus 48.5 in August. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher and trading around $82.80 a barrel. Traders are awaiting an OPEC cartel meeting on Wednesday and may cut production by 1 million barrels a day, reports said. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is rising and presently fetching 3.787%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the global manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending and domestic auto industry sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low overnight. Prices last Friday closed at a technically bearish weekly, monthly and quarterly low close. Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage amid a six-week-old price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 3,693.75 and then at 3,751.25. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight contract low of 3,571.75 and then at 3,550.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract low overnight. Prices last Friday closed at a technically bearish weekly, monthly and quarterly low close. Prices remain in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 11,357.25 and then at 11,613.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight contract low of 10,890.75 and then at 10,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering and some safe-haven demand. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 128 1/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 127 4/32 and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering and safe-haven demand. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 112.30.0 and then at 113.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 111.25.5 and then at 111.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of .9908 and then at 1.0000. Shorter-term support is seen at .9690 and then at the contract low of .9592. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are sharply up in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in overall technical control. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $85.00 and then at $87.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $80.87 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to firmer overnight. Risk sentiment in the general marketplace remains elevated Monday. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the afternoon crop progress reports. Corn, wheat and soybean market bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. However, if the stock and financial markets continue in turmoil, the upside will be limited in the grain futures markets.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, September 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European stocks mostly up and Asian shares mostly down. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins. The S&P 500 stock index on Thursday closed at a its lowest level in nearly two years. Regarding Friday morning’s firmer stock prices in the U.S. and Europe: “This looks like nothing more than a dead-cat bounce after steep declines over the last couple of weeks as investors have been forced to once again accept that interest rates are going to rise further and faster than hoped,” said Craig Erlam of OANDA.

In overnight news, consumer price inflation in the Euro zone rose to a higher-than-expected 10% in September, year-on-year, from 9.1% in August. European markets are pricing in a more than 70% chance of a 75-basis-point rate hike from the European Central Bank in October.

In other news, the UK second-quarter GDP was revised up from -0.1% to +0.2%.

China’s purchasing managers indexes (PMI) for September came in weaker than expected, further suggesting the world’s second-largest economy is in trouble.

The Reserve Bank of India raised its repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.9% on Friday in its fight against inflation. The decision was widely expected.

Industrial metals prices are rising as the London Metals Exchange (LME) considers banning Russian-mined metals to LME exchange’s warehouses. Aluminum, nickel and copper all have risen on the news.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly up. Nymex crude oil prices slightly firmer and trading around $81.50 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is rising and presently fetching 3.688%. 

Today is the last day of the month and of the quarter, making it an extra important trading day from a technical perspective.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, including the PCE price indexes that the Federal Reserve monitors closely for inflationary pressures. Also due out today is the ISM Chicago business survey and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering from Thursday’s strong losses. Bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,751.25 and then at 3,800.00. Support for active traders is seen at the contract low of 3,613.00 and then at 3,575.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices remain in a downtrend on the daily bar chart as the index hovers near Thursday’s contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,613.50 and then at 11,796.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 11,091.50 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering in a bear market. Prices are in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 128 31/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 126 13/32 and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Prices are in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the this week’s high of 112.30.0 and then at 113.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 112.02.0 and then at 111.20.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of .9908 and then at 1.0000. Shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of .9690 and then at the contract low of .9592. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears are in technical control. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $83.00 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight, as risk sentiment in the general marketplace has improved just a bit Friday morning. On tap today is the quarterly USDA grain stocks report and the annual small grains summary. Corn, wheat and soybean market bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. However, if the stock and financial markets continue in bearish turmoil, such could signal tops are in place in the grain markets.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, September 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to lower openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace was briefly assuaged by the Bank of England’s surprise announcement Wednesday that it will begin purchases of U.K. government bonds in order to stabilize the rattled U.K. bond market. However, markets quickly brushed aside the move as being insufficient. Risk aversion remains elevated late this week. Government bond yields and the U.S. dollar are on the rise again as the marketplace is spooked by rising inflation, the specter of global economic recession, and currency and financial markets instability.

The U.K. government has created a “loop of doom” that threatens the entire financial system and they must act urgently, said Nigel Green of the DeVere Group. “Markets now know where the weakness lies. Intervention paints a target on the back of the body that intervenes.” If the U.K. government does not change its tax and spending plans, “they will have blown up the U.K. mortgage market, U.K. pensions, amongst others, and eventually (a contagion) could spread to the wider global financial markets which themselves are sitting on thin ice as liquidity disappears,” said Green. His comments came after the Bank of England stepped in to buy U.K. bonds Wednesday. The BOE’s announcement “is the right thing to do, of course, but it seems ludicrous that it has had to act in this way,” said Green. The International Monetary Fund warned the U.K. government over its plan for tax cuts and spending, saying such is likely to increase inequality and add to pressures pushing up prices.

Read a Barron’s headline today: “Things are starting to break. But the Fed and BOE aren’t done hiking.”

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly firmer and trading around $82.50 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is rising and presently fetching 3.836% after rising above 4.0% overnight. The 2-year Treasury note yield is 4.4%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the third estimate of second-quarter GDP, and revised corporate profits.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,751.25 and then at 3,800.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,677.25 and then at the contract low of 3,613.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices remain in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,613.50 and then at 11,796.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the June low of 11,135.00 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 127 9/32 and then at Wednesday’s high of 127 28/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 125 22/32 and then at the contract low of 123 30/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.21.0 and then at this week’s high of 112.30.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 111.20.5 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of .9808 and then at .9900. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of .9690 and then at the contract low of .9592. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears are in technical control. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $83.00 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Risk aversion in the marketplace is keeping the grain market bulls tentative. Corn, wheat and soybean market bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. However, if the stock and financial markets continue in bearish turmoil, such could signal tops are in place in the grain markets. Traders are also awaiting the quarterly USDA grain stocks and small grains summary reports on Friday morning.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, September 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins and at or near for-the-move lows. The marketplace was somewhat assuaged overnight when the Bank of England made a surprise announcement that it will begin purchases of U.K. government bonds in order to stabilize the rattled U.K. bond market. The International Monetary Fund said the U.K. government should re-examine its stated plan to stimulate its economy through massive borrowing and bond sales.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer on a corrective rebound after hitting a seven-month low Monday and are trading around $79.00 a barrel.

The U.S. dollar index is higher and hit another 20-year high today. A Barron’s headline today reads, “The greenback has gone ballistic.” The strong U.S. dollar is putting serious pressure on the currencies of many smaller countries, which is very worrisome to those who endured currency crises of past decades. The main concern is a general marketplace contagion developing if secondary currencies dislocations and illiquidity spill over into extreme anxiety and lack of confidence in the global financial transactions system. The Chinese yuan hit a record low against the U.S. dollar today. Major economies have taken steps over the years to prevent another global financial market crisis, but when everyone runs for the exit doors at once, even robust systems can be over-run. Any investment bank or big hedge fund that appears to be in trouble may provide the first clue of a much bigger problem developing. Such a scenario would likely prompt a bigger into the hard assets, safe-haven gold and silver.

Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is rising and presently fetching 3.896% after rising above 4.0% overnight. The 2-year Treasury note yield is 4.4%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, pending home sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,733.00 and then at 3,783.25. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight contract low of 3,613.00 and then at 3,550.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a 3.5-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,568.25 and then at 11,796.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the June low of 11,135.00 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit a contract low overnight. Prices are in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 127 even and then at 127 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 123 30/32 and then at 123 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on a corrective bounce after hitting a contract low overnight. Prices are in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 112.01.5 and then at this week’s high of 112.22.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 110.19.0 and then at 110.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at .9700 and then at this week’s high of .9770. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight contract low of .9592 and then at .9550. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce after hitting a seven-month low Monday. Bears are still in technical control. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $76.25 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed overnight. Risk aversion in the marketplace is keeping the grain market bulls very tentative. Corn, wheat and soybean market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, if the stock and financial markets continue in bearish turmoil, such could signal tops are in place in the grain markets. Traders are awaiting the quarterly USDA grain stocks and small grains summary reports on Friday morning.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff