Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, September 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian shares mostly down and European shares mostly up. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion remains elevated at mid-week following news that Russian President Putin will partially mobilize more Russian troops to fight in his war with Ukraine, including implying in a speech that he could use nuclear weapons if Russia’s integrity is threatened. One analyst said the longer the war drags on and with Russia making little if any further progress, the more threatened Putin will become, which could prompt the dictator to take more drastic measures to ensure his own survival.

Gold is getting a significant safe-haven bid on the Putin speech news. In recent months gold had tended not to see much, if any, safe-haven demand on global concerns that have been present, but apparently not worrisome enough to significantly boost gold and silver prices. The precious metals traders apparently reckon Putin’s threats area big deal.

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting that began Tuesday morning ends this afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, including fresh “dot plots” on the U.S. economy. The FOMC is expected to raise the key U.S. Fed funds rate by 0.75% in the Fed’s effort to tamp down problematic price inflation. The Bank of England also holds its monetary policy meeting Thursday and is also expected to raise interest rates.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $84.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher and pushed to another 20-year high in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.542%. The 2-year Treasury note yield is 3.961%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, existing home sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,936.25 and then at 3,981.25. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,843.25 and then at 3,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,092.50 and then at 12,268.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the September low of 11,778.50 and then at 11,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 131 10/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 129 27/32 and then at the contract low of 129 6/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading on short covering. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 114.07.5 and then at Tuesday’s high of 114.17.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 113.20.5 and then at 113.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0040 and then at this week’s high of 1.0116. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of .9935 and then at .9900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $88.00 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $85.00 and then at today’s low of $83.48. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. Grain markets are boosted at mid-week on comments from Russian President Putin that he may not extend the grain-shipping deal with Ukraine that expires in November. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls have the slight overall near-term technical edge and have restarted price uptrends on the daily charts.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, September 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly lower and Asian shares mostly higher. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion remains elevated among traders and investors. Marketplace focus is on the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC is expected to remain aggressively hawkish and raise the key U.S. Fed funds rate by 0.75% in the Fed’s effort to tamp down problematic price inflation. Sweden’s central bank today raised its key interest rate by a full 1.0%. The Bank of England also holds its monetary policy meeting Thursday and is also expected to raise interest rates.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly up and trading around $84.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.535%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield climbed to 3.979%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail sales indexes, and new residential construction.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,936.25 and then at 3,981.25. Support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 3,846.25 and then at 3,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,092.50 and then at 12,268.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 11,778.50 and then at 11,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131 4/32 and then at 131 25/32. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 130 5/32 and then at 129 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 114.17.0 and then at this week’s high of 114.25.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114.00.0 and then at 113.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0116 and then at 1.0175. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0000 and then at the contract low of .9935. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $87.00 and then at $88.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $84.00 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. Keener risk aversion in the general marketplace has the grain market bulls tentative. Key “outside markets” for the grains are also in a generally bearish posture as crude oil prices are trending lower and the U.S. dollar index is trending higher. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bears still have the slight overall near-term technical edge.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, September 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to lower openings and at or near two-month lows when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors remain jittery to start the trading week, amid fears of a U.S. and/or global recession. Marketplace focus is on this week’s FOMC meeting that begins Tuesday and ends Wednesday afternoon. The FOMC is generally expected to raise the key U.S. Fed funds rate by 0.75% in the Fed’s effort to tamp down problematic price inflation. However, there is scattered talk the Fed could do a full 1.0 percent rate hike. One investment bank’s research team said the Fed raising 100 basis points is possible but not likely. The Bank of England also holds its monetary policy meeting later this week.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $83.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.492%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield climbed to 3.927%. The inverted 2-year/10-year yield curve is one clue of impending U.S. economic recession.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the NAHB housing market index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower and hit a two-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,899.25 and then at 3,950.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,800.00 and then at 3,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and near last week’s two-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,000.00 and then at 12,268.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,750.00 and then at 11,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and near last week’s contract low in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131 8/32 and then at Friday’s high of 131 25/32. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 130 12/32 and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and not far above last week’s contract low. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 114.25.5 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 114.10.5 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0150 and then at 1.0200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0000 and then at the contract low of .9935. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $85.00 and then at the overnight high of $86.22. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $82.50 and then at the September low of $81.20. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to lower overnight. Keener risk aversion in the general marketplace has the grain market bulls again tentative. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bears still have the slight overall near-term technical edge, but fledgling price uptrends are in place. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and weekly crop progress reports.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, September 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to lower openings and two-month lows when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is more anxious late this week, after absorbing a hot U.S. consumer price index report on Tuesday. Traders are focusing on next week’s FOMC meeting that begins Tuesday and ends Wednesday afternoon. The FOMC is expected to raise the key U.S. Fed funds rate by 0.75% in the Fed’s effort to tamp down problematic price inflation. Also, a very dour earnings report from Federal Express Thursday has helped to dampen investor spirits to end the trading week.

In overnight news, the Eurozone reported its consumer price index for August at up 9.1%, year-on-year, which was in line with market expectations.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices near steady and trading around $85.25 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is up in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.463%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield climbed to 3.901%, which is the highest level since 2007. 

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and Treasury international capital data.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower and hit a two-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in Thursday’s high of 3,977.50 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,850.00 and then at 3,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a two-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,000.00 and then at Thursday’s high of 12,268.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,800.00 and then at 11,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a three-month low in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131 25/32 and then at Thursday’s high of 132 9/32. Shorter-term support lies at the June low of 130 27/32 and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 114.22.0 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 114.10.5 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0100 and then at 1.0150. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0000 and then at the contract low of .9935. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $87.50 and then at this week’s high of $90.19. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $84.00 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower overnight. Keener risk aversion in the general marketplace to end the trading week has the bulls standing on the sidelines. Corn and soybean market bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. Wheat bears still have the slight overall near-term technical edge, but the bulls are working on fledgling price uptrends. Seasonal factors for corn and soybeans lean bearish as both crops are set for harvest in the U.S., which means farmer selling and commercial hedge pressures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff