Daily Morning Report

Friday, September 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to solidly lower openings and three-month lows when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion remains keen late this week after Russian President Putin earlier this week said he will mobilize more troops to fight his war with Ukraine, and also implied he could use his nuclear weapons if Russia’s integrity is threatened. U.S. and/or global recession worries have increased this week, following downbeat comments on U.S. economic prospects from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday and as major central banks this week tightened their monetary policies to tamp down surging inflation.

In overnight news, the Euro zone manufacturing and services purchasing managers indexes dropped in September and are suggesting both sectors are contracting.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $81.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher and pushed to another 20-year high in early U.S. trading. A Barron’s headline this morning reads: “The dollar is crushing its rival currencies.” It’s important to point out that price trends in the currency markets tend to be stronger and longer-lasting than price trends in other markets. Thus, the surge in the greenback may continue to for quite some time. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is rising and presently fetching 3.771%and at an 11-year high. The 2-year Treasury note yield is 4.205%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. flash manufacturing and services purchasing managers indexes.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly lower and hit a three-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,783.25 and then at Thursday’s high of 3,833.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,700.00 and then at the June low of 3,657.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a three-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,600.25 and then at Thursday’s high of 11,796.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the June low of 11,1350.00 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and hit a contract low. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 128 23/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at 127 even and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 112.16.0 and then at the overnight high of 112.30.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at 111.24.0 and then at 111.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower and hit another contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of .9913 and then at Thursday’s high of .9969. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight contract low of .9796 and then at .9750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower and hit a seven-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $83.92 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were solidly lower overnight. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace late this week is squelching the grain market bulls. Corn and soybean market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls have the slight overall near-term technical edge and have restarted price uptrends on the daily charts. However, if the stock and financial markets continue in bearish turmoil in the coming weeks (remember, September and October can be a historically rocky period for stocks, bonds and currencies), such could signal tops are in place in the grain markets.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, September 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion is still elevated late this week after Russian President Putin mobilized more troops to fight his war with Ukraine, and also implied he could use his nuclear weapons if Russia’s integrity is threatened.

The marketplace is digesting this week’s FOMC meeting that saw the U.S. Federal Reserve raise its main interest rate by 0.75%, which is what most expected. Fed Chairman Powell as his press conference after the FOMC statement was released Wednesday afternoon said it’s likely the Fed will do two more 75 basis-point hikes this year. He also said a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy is not likely because the Fed must stamp out problematic price inflation. A Barron’s news headline today reads, “The Fed signals more pain.”

In overnight news, Japan’s central bank intervened in the foreign exchange market for the first time in 24 years by buying the yen for U.S. dollars. The yen slumped when Japan’s central bank said its interest rates would remain near zero for the next couple years.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly higher and trading around $83.25 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher and pushed to another 20-year high in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.54%. The 2-year Treasury note yield is 4.09%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, leading indicators, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit a nine-week low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,936.25 and then at 3,981.25. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,766.75 and then at 3,741.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit a nine-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,900.00 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,550.00 and then at 11,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 131 10/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 130 5/32 and then at the contract low of 129 6/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 114.10.0 and then at Tuesday’s high of 114.17.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 113.09.5 and then at 113.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.0040 and then at this week’s high of 1.0116. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight contract low of .9868 and then at .9800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $85.00 and then at this week’s high of $86.68. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $81.73 and then at the September low of $80.89. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed overnight. Risk aversion in the marketplace late this week is squelching the grain market bulls. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls have the slight overall near-term technical edge and have restarted price uptrends on the daily charts.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, September 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian shares mostly down and European shares mostly up. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion remains elevated at mid-week following news that Russian President Putin will partially mobilize more Russian troops to fight in his war with Ukraine, including implying in a speech that he could use nuclear weapons if Russia’s integrity is threatened. One analyst said the longer the war drags on and with Russia making little if any further progress, the more threatened Putin will become, which could prompt the dictator to take more drastic measures to ensure his own survival.

Gold is getting a significant safe-haven bid on the Putin speech news. In recent months gold had tended not to see much, if any, safe-haven demand on global concerns that have been present, but apparently not worrisome enough to significantly boost gold and silver prices. The precious metals traders apparently reckon Putin’s threats area big deal.

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting that began Tuesday morning ends this afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, including fresh “dot plots” on the U.S. economy. The FOMC is expected to raise the key U.S. Fed funds rate by 0.75% in the Fed’s effort to tamp down problematic price inflation. The Bank of England also holds its monetary policy meeting Thursday and is also expected to raise interest rates.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $84.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher and pushed to another 20-year high in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.542%. The 2-year Treasury note yield is 3.961%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, existing home sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,936.25 and then at 3,981.25. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,843.25 and then at 3,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,092.50 and then at 12,268.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the September low of 11,778.50 and then at 11,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 131 10/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 129 27/32 and then at the contract low of 129 6/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading on short covering. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 114.07.5 and then at Tuesday’s high of 114.17.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 113.20.5 and then at 113.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0040 and then at this week’s high of 1.0116. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of .9935 and then at .9900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $88.00 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $85.00 and then at today’s low of $83.48. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. Grain markets are boosted at mid-week on comments from Russian President Putin that he may not extend the grain-shipping deal with Ukraine that expires in November. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls have the slight overall near-term technical edge and have restarted price uptrends on the daily charts.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, September 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly lower and Asian shares mostly higher. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion remains elevated among traders and investors. Marketplace focus is on the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC is expected to remain aggressively hawkish and raise the key U.S. Fed funds rate by 0.75% in the Fed’s effort to tamp down problematic price inflation. Sweden’s central bank today raised its key interest rate by a full 1.0%. The Bank of England also holds its monetary policy meeting Thursday and is also expected to raise interest rates.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly up and trading around $84.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.535%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield climbed to 3.979%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail sales indexes, and new residential construction.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,936.25 and then at 3,981.25. Support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 3,846.25 and then at 3,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,092.50 and then at 12,268.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 11,778.50 and then at 11,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131 4/32 and then at 131 25/32. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 130 5/32 and then at 129 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 114.17.0 and then at this week’s high of 114.25.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114.00.0 and then at 113.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0116 and then at 1.0175. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0000 and then at the contract low of .9935. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $87.00 and then at $88.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $84.00 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. Keener risk aversion in the general marketplace has the grain market bulls tentative. Key “outside markets” for the grains are also in a generally bearish posture as crude oil prices are trending lower and the U.S. dollar index is trending higher. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bears still have the slight overall near-term technical edge.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff