Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, September 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed higher openings when the New York day session begins. The major U.S. stock indexes have seen short-term price downtrends negated and bulls have technical momentum. So far, the historically turbulent month of September sees the stock market bulls gaining strength.

Traders and investors are awaiting the latest U.S. inflation report on Tuesday morning. The August consumer price index is seen coming in up 8.0%, year-on-year, compared to the July report showing an 8.5% rise. There are some signs in the economy that inflation in the U.S. is cooling off a bit. A CPI print that’s well above market expectations would likely be a markets-mover, and bearish for stocks, bonds and precious metals.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $89.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower again in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.320%. 

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail sales indexes, the NFIB small business index, real earnings, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index, and the monthly Treasury budget statement. 

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. A downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated and bulls have momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in 4,200.00 and then at 4,234.25. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,128.00 and then at 4,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have momentum. A downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,000.00 and then at 13,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,816.75 and then at Monday’s low of 12,648.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the firm advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 133 even and then at Monday’s high of 133 26/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 132 10/32 and the at the September low of 132 2/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the firm technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 116.06.0 and then at 116.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115.20.5 and then at the September low of 115.13.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but a price downtrend has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.0265 and then at 1.0300. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0187 and then at Monday’s low of 1.0126. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $90.00 and then at $92.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $86.63 and then at Monday’s low of $85.16. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were firmer overnight. Soybean bulls are back in business after a surprisingly bullish USDA report on Monday. The corn market is still trending up and the bulls have the firm chart advantage. Wheat markets are in fledgling price uptrends. Seasonal factors for corn and soybeans lean bearish as both crops are set for harvest in the U.S., which means farmer selling and commercial hedge pressures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, September 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed higher openings when the New York day session begins. Stock and financial markets are almost half-way through the month of September with no major marketplace anxiety. The major U.S. stock indexes have seen short-term price downtrends stall out. History shows September and October can be rocky months for the stock and financial markets.

Traders and investors are awaiting the latest U.S. inflation report on Tuesday. The August consumer price index is seen coming in up 8.0%, year-on-year, compared to the July report showing an 8.5% rise. There are some signs in the economy that inflation in the U.S. is cooling off a bit.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $87.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly lower and hit a two-week low overnight. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.298%. 

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday but the pace picks up Tuesday. 

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. A downtrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in 4,150.00 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,050.00 and then at Friday’s low of 4,022.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. A downtrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,850.00 and then at 13,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,600.00 and then at Friday’s low of 12,405.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the firm advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 134 even and then at the September high of 135 4/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 132 18/32 and the at the September low of 132 2/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the firm technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 116.11.0 and then at 116.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115.18.0 and then at the September low of 115.13.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are solidly higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but a price downtrend has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0265 and then at 1.0300. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0126 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading on short more covering after hitting an eight-month low last week. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $88.00 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $85.16 and then at $84.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were firmer overnight. The corn market is trending up and the bulls have the chart advantage. Soybean prices are chopping sideways and bulls and bears are on a level technical playing field. Soybeans are being supported by a bullish soybean meal market. Wheat markets have seen bullish upside breakouts from the recent sideways trading ranges at lower levels and the bulls have gained upside recently. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, September 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The markets have brushed aside, for now, the hawkish tone of the U.S. Federal Reserve that was reinforced by comments from Chairman Powell on Thursday. Also, the European Central Bank on Thursday raise its main interest rate by 0.75%–the largest in over 20 years. It’s very likely traders and investors have already factored into markets’ prices the tighter monetary policies of most of the major central banks of the world.

Somewhat overshadowing the marketplace and crowding out other business/financial news is the death of Queen Elizabeth on Thursday.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $85.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is sharply lower on a big corrective pullback after hitting a 20-year high Wednesday. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.260%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes monthly wholesale trade.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and poised for a technically bullish weekly high close Friday. A downtrend on the daily bar chart is now in jeopardy. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in 4,1000.00 and then at 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at Thursday’s low of 3,959.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and poised for a technically bullish weekly high close. A downtrend on the daily bar chart is now in jeopardy. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,700.00 and then at 12,850.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,405.00 and then at Thursday’s low of 12,191.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the firm advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 134 30/32 and then at 136 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 132 22/32 and the at this week’s low of 132 2/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the firm technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 116.27.5 and then at 117.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115.22.0 and then at this week’s low of 115.13.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are solidly higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0180 and then at 1.0250. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0065 and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting an eight-month low Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $86.00 and then at $87.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $82.71 and then at this week’s low of $81.20. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. The corn market is trending up and the bulls have the chart advantage. Soybean prices are chopping sideways and bulls and bears are on a level technical playing field. Soybeans are being supported by a bullish soybean meal market. Wheat markets have seen bullish upside breakouts from the recent sideways trading ranges at lower levels and the bulls have gained upside momentum this week.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, September 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight, following the strong gains in the U.S. stock market on Wednesday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The feature in the marketplace late this week is the big drop in crude oil prices, amid concerns of global economic recession as most major central banks are tightening their monetary policies. The Federal Reserve’s beige book, out Wednesday afternoon, pointed out weaker U.S. economic growth. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak today at a Cato Institute panel discussion. It’s his last scheduled speech before the Sept. 20-21 FOMC meeting. The European Central Bank meets today and most expect the ECB to raise its main interest rate by 75 basis points.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices near steady and trading around $82.00 a barrel after hitting an eight-month low overnight. The U.S. dollar index is lower on a corrective pullback after hitting a 20-year high Wednesday. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.25%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, consumer credit and the DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in Tuesday’s high of 4,035.75 and then at 4,075.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,950.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,534.25 and then at 12,730.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,200.00 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting an 11-week low on Wednesday. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the firm advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 134 8/32 and then at 135 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 133 13/32 and the at 133 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting an 11-week low on Wednesday. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the firm technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 116.16.0 and then at this week’s high of 116.27.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116.03.0 and then at 115.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0100 and then at 1.0150. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0000 and then at the contract low of .9935. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading but hit an eight-month low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $84.00 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $81.20 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to firmer overnight. The corn market is trending up and the bulls have the chart advantage. Soybean prices are chopping sideways and bulls and bears are on a level technical playing field. Soybeans are being supported by a bullish soybean meal market. Wheat markets have seen bullish upside breakouts from the recent sideways trading ranges at lower levels and the bulls have gained upside momentum this week.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff