Daily Morning Report

Friday, September 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The markets have brushed aside, for now, the hawkish tone of the U.S. Federal Reserve that was reinforced by comments from Chairman Powell on Thursday. Also, the European Central Bank on Thursday raise its main interest rate by 0.75%–the largest in over 20 years. It’s very likely traders and investors have already factored into markets’ prices the tighter monetary policies of most of the major central banks of the world.

Somewhat overshadowing the marketplace and crowding out other business/financial news is the death of Queen Elizabeth on Thursday.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $85.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is sharply lower on a big corrective pullback after hitting a 20-year high Wednesday. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.260%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes monthly wholesale trade.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and poised for a technically bullish weekly high close Friday. A downtrend on the daily bar chart is now in jeopardy. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in 4,1000.00 and then at 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at Thursday’s low of 3,959.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and poised for a technically bullish weekly high close. A downtrend on the daily bar chart is now in jeopardy. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,700.00 and then at 12,850.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,405.00 and then at Thursday’s low of 12,191.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the firm advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 134 30/32 and then at 136 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 132 22/32 and the at this week’s low of 132 2/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the firm technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 116.27.5 and then at 117.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115.22.0 and then at this week’s low of 115.13.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are solidly higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0180 and then at 1.0250. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0065 and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting an eight-month low Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $86.00 and then at $87.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $82.71 and then at this week’s low of $81.20. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. The corn market is trending up and the bulls have the chart advantage. Soybean prices are chopping sideways and bulls and bears are on a level technical playing field. Soybeans are being supported by a bullish soybean meal market. Wheat markets have seen bullish upside breakouts from the recent sideways trading ranges at lower levels and the bulls have gained upside momentum this week.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, September 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight, following the strong gains in the U.S. stock market on Wednesday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The feature in the marketplace late this week is the big drop in crude oil prices, amid concerns of global economic recession as most major central banks are tightening their monetary policies. The Federal Reserve’s beige book, out Wednesday afternoon, pointed out weaker U.S. economic growth. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak today at a Cato Institute panel discussion. It’s his last scheduled speech before the Sept. 20-21 FOMC meeting. The European Central Bank meets today and most expect the ECB to raise its main interest rate by 75 basis points.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices near steady and trading around $82.00 a barrel after hitting an eight-month low overnight. The U.S. dollar index is lower on a corrective pullback after hitting a 20-year high Wednesday. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.25%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, consumer credit and the DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in Tuesday’s high of 4,035.75 and then at 4,075.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,950.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,534.25 and then at 12,730.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,200.00 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting an 11-week low on Wednesday. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the firm advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 134 8/32 and then at 135 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 133 13/32 and the at 133 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting an 11-week low on Wednesday. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the firm technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 116.16.0 and then at this week’s high of 116.27.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116.03.0 and then at 115.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0100 and then at 1.0150. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0000 and then at the contract low of .9935. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading but hit an eight-month low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $84.00 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $81.20 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to firmer overnight. The corn market is trending up and the bulls have the chart advantage. Soybean prices are chopping sideways and bulls and bears are on a level technical playing field. Soybeans are being supported by a bullish soybean meal market. Wheat markets have seen bullish upside breakouts from the recent sideways trading ranges at lower levels and the bulls have gained upside momentum this week.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, September 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are trending down on the daily charts. Risk aversion remains elevated in the general marketplace. That’s due in part to

overnight news that Chinese imports and exports fell more than expected in August as the world’s second-largest economy continues to stall amid Covid lockdowns, a wobbly property market and a weaker yuan. “The headwinds facing the Chinese economy are becoming increasingly fierce and recent efforts to shore it up have appeared inadequate,” said an email dispatch from analyst Craig Erlam with OANDA.

In other overnight news, the revised Euro zone second-quarter GDP rose 0.8% from the second quarter and compares to the initial estimate of up 0.6%. On an annual basis, second-quarter Euro zone GDP showed a growth rate of 4.1%.

The Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting conclusion is today. The European Central Bank meets Thursday and many expect the ECB to raise its main interest rate by 75 basis points.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $87.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher and touched another 20-year high in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching around 3.3%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the international trade report, the Johnson Redbook weekly retail sales report, and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading but hit a six-week low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in Tuesday’s high of 3,978.50 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,900.00 and then at 3,875.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a six-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 12,314.00 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,996.50 and then at 11,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit an 11-week low overnight. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the firm advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 133 even and then at 134 even. Shorter-term support lies at 132 even and the at 131 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading but hit an 11-week low overnight. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the firm technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 116.00.0 and then at 116.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115.13.5 and then at 115.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0100 and then at 1.0150. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of .9935 and then at .9900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading but hit a nearly six-month low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $88.00 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $85.08 and then at $84.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to higher overnight, with wheat solidly up. Short covering was featured. The corn market is trending up and the bulls have the chart advantage. Soybean prices are chopping sideways and bulls and bears are on a level technical playing field. Wheat prices are trading sideways at lower levels and the bears still have the technical advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, September 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. It was a busy weekend of news for the marketplace, as U.S. market participants return from a three-day holiday weekend.

The U.S. dollar index hit a fresh 20-year high Monday as the Euro currency slumped after Russia said it won’t reopen its main natural gas pipeline from Russia into Europe.

Liz Truss became the new Prime Minister of the U.K.

OPEC-plus decided to cut its collective crude oil production by 100,000 barrels per day starting in October, in an effort to boost prices.

The Reserve Bank of Australia Tuesday raised its main interest rate by 50 basis points to 2.35%, its highest since early 2015. The Bank of Canada rate decision will be Wednesday and the European Central Bank meets Thursday. Many expect the ECB to raise its main interest rate by 75 basis points.

And then there’s the strict Covid lockdowns in China that have weakened the world’s second-largest economy. China’s central bank on Monday said it would ease monetary policy further by lowering the reserve requirement ratio for banks’ foreign exchange reserves.

In a compelling news story from the Wall Street Journal, the publication reported today that “investors around the world are piling into U.S. stocks, even as they brace for the prospect of a rocky autumn, because they say there’s nowhere better to shelter from the turbulence in global markets.” Said one market analyst in the story: “The U.S. looks the least challenged in a very challenging world.” If that story is accurate, what were considered “risk assets” (stocks) now being sought as a safe-haven asset globally could be significantly bearish for the gold, silver and U.S. Treasury markets, which have been considered safe-haven assets for a very long time.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $86.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.242%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the U.S. services PMI, the ISM report on business services, the global services PMI and the employment trends index report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in 4,000.00 and then at 4,035.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 3,920.00 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last Friday’s high of 12,534.25 and then at 12,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 12,091.00 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 134 30/32 and then at 136 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 133 4/32 and the at 132 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 116.16.0 and then at the overnight high of 116.27.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 115.23.0 and then at 115.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0150 and then at 1.0200. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight contract low of .9947 and then at .9900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $88.00 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the August low of $85.37 and then at $84.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to weaker overnight. Recently dropping crude oil and other raw commodity prices and keener risk aversion have been bearish for the grain markets. Seasonal factors are also bearish for corn and soybeans as the U.S. harvest approaches and there are no major weather threats. Look for grain traders to take more daily price direction from daily price movements in the crude oil market.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, September 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion remains elevated late this week. Major Covid lockdowns in China continue to crimp the world’s second-largest economy, which only adds to fears of a global economic recession, as major central banks, excluding China’s, are tightening their monetary policies to battle problematic price inflation, but in the process are slowing their economies.

In overnight news, the Euro zone producer price index for August came in at up 4.0% from July and up 37.9%, year-on-year. One might surmise those numbers as stunning, but they are similar to recent Euro zone PPI monthly reports. Soaring energy costs in Europe are behind the huge inflation numbers.

Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department. That report is expected to show the key non-farm payrolls growth number at up 325,000 in August versus the July report showing a gain of 528,000 non-farm jobs. Ironically, a stronger-than-expected rise in non-farm payrolls may be deemed bearish for the stock market, as traders might interpret a strong jobs number as meaning the Federal Reserve will get even more aggressive on its monetary policy tightening.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $88.50 a barrel. Energy traders are awaiting the OPEC-plus meeting next Monday, at which time the cartel will likely discuss cutting its collective crude oil production. The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a 20-year high on Thursday. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.263%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield this week hit a 15-year high and is presently trading at 3.503%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in Wednesday’s high of 4,035.00 and then at at this week’s high of 4,089.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,920.00 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,500.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of 12,578.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,091.00 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 135 4/32 and then at 136 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 133 4/32 and the at 132 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 116.17.5 and then at 117.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 115.23.0 and then at 115.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0169 and then at 1.0200. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of .9984 and then at .9900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s high of $89.63 and then at $91.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $86.50 and then at the August low of $85.37. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were firmer overnight, on corrective bounces from this week’s selling pressure. Recently dropping crude oil and other raw commodity prices and keener risk aversion are bearish for the grain markets. Look for grain traders to take daily price direction from daily price movements in the crude oil market.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff