The Nymex crude oil futures market early this week hit a seven-week high and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. That means the path of least resistance for prices will be sideways to higher in the near term. However, price action has also been choppy and volatile lately. Expect more of the same. Bears will have to produce multiple daily closes below major psychological support at $100.00 a barrel to the suggest a major market top is in place for Nymex crude. Stay tuned! —Jim Wyckoff
Daily Morning Report
S&P 500 flirting with bear-market territory
Monday, May 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed but mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The S&P 500 stock index last week had its worse week in 11 years. The index is flirting with being in a bear market that is defined by being down 20% from the recent high. The Russia-Ukraine war, Covid lockdowns in China and inflation fears are hitting the equities hard.
In overnight news, China reported its April industrial output down 2.9%, year on year, which was lower than the gain of 1.0% that was expected by the trade.
Meantime, the European Union cut the Euro zone 2022 economic growth rate forecast to 2.7% from its 4.0% earlier estimate.
McDonald’s announced it is pulling its businesses out of Russia due to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.
The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil futures prices a bit lower and trading around $110.00 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.921%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey, and Treasury international capital data.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,042.00 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,950.00 and then at last Friday’s low of 3,915.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,500.00 and then at 12,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,230.25 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading on short covering. Bears are still in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 139 28/32 and then at 140 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 138 25/32 and then at 138 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.18.0 and then at Friday’s high of 119.23.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119.00.0 and then at 118.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are firmer on short covering after hitting a contract low Friday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance the 1.0500 and then at 1.0550. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 1.0361 and then at 1.0300. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $111.71 and then at $113.51. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $108.11 and then at $107.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures prices were solidly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain market bulls have the firm overall near-term chart advantage. Wheat has now taken over leadership in the bullish camp and sees HRW prices at a 14-year high. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and weekly crop progress reports.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Stock indexes see corrective bounces Friday
Friday, May 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are seeing short covering in a bear market after the major indexes hit 12-month lows Thursday. Risk aversion may have down-ticked a bit on this last trading day of the week, but it remains elevated due to the Russia-Ukraine war, Covid in China and rising global inflation.
In overnight news, the crypto currencies, including bitcoin, rallied on corrective bounces after their shellacking earlier this week.
The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil futures prices higher and trading around $108.00 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading, but not far below this week’s 20-year high. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.889% after trading above 3% earlier this week. For perspective, the German 10-year bund yield is presently 0.897% and the 10-year U.K. gilt yield is 1.718%.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export prices, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a 12-month low Thursday. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,000.00 and then at 4,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,915.50 and then at this week’s low of 3,855.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a 12-month low on Thursday. Prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,250.00 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,891.50 and then at this week’s low of 11,689.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 140 20/32 and then at this week’s high of 141 3/32. Shorter-term support lies at 139 even and then at 138 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.23.5 and then at this week’s high of 120.00.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday’s low of 119.04.5 and then at 119.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are firmer on short covering after hitting a contract low Thursday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance the 1.0450 and then at 1.0500. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 1.0366 and then at 1.0300. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $108.46 and then at $110.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $106.29 and then at $105.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures prices were mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain market bulls have the firm overall near-term chart advantage. Wheat has now taken over leadership in the bullish camp after a bullish USDA report for wheat on Thursday drove SRW prices to a 14-year high.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
U.S. stock indexes to see more downside
The major U.S. stock indexes are trading at 12-month lows this week and the bears are in solid near-term technical control amid price downtrends in place on the daily bar charts. There are no strong, early technical clues to suggest the stock indexes are close to bottoming out. The path of least resistance for prices will remain sideways to lower until a strong chart clues suggests otherwise. And you will get those early significant technical clues on price trend changes in my daily afternoon market reports. Stay tuned! —Jim Wyckoff
Stocks pressured by keener risk aversion Thursday
Thursday, May 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins and hit 12-month lows overnight. Risk aversion remains elevated amid the Russia-Ukraine war that shows no signs of ending, Covid lockdowns in China and problematic price inflation that is gripping the globe. Traders worry the U.S. and other major economies will slip into recession in the coming months, due to the aforementioned factors.
The U.S. gets another inflation reading Thursday with the producer price index for April, which is seen coming in up 0.5% from March and compares to a rise of 1.4% in March from February.
In other news, the crypto currencies continue to get hammered amid the keener risk aversion in the marketplace. Bitcoin prices dropped to a 16-month low below $26,000 overnight.
The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil futures prices lower and trading around $104.00 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.837%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower and hit another a 12-month low overnight. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,954.25 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,891.50 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit another 12-month low overnight. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,072.25 and then at 12,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,793.50 and then at 11,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading on more short covering. Bears are still in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 141 3/32 and then at 142 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 139 14/32 and then at 139 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher on more short covering in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.30.0 and then at 120.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.04.5 and then at 119.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are solidly lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance the overnight high of 1.0542 and then at this week’s high of 1.0608. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight contract low of 1.0435 and then at 1.0400. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $106.27 and then at $107.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $102.66 and then at $101.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures prices were lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on risk keener risk aversion in the general marketplace today. Traders are awaiting today’s weekly USDA export sales report and the monthly USDA supply and demand report. Grain market bulls still have the overall near-term chart advantage.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
U.S. inflation data on deck at mid-week
Wednesday, May 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins, on corrective rebounds from recent strong selling pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures markets hit 12-month lows Tuesday and are in solid near-term price downtrends, suggesting the path of least resistance for the indexes will remain sideways to lower.
The U.S. data point of the week comes with today’s consumer price index report for April, which is expected to come in hot at up 8.1%, year-on-year. In March, the PPI rose 8.5% from a year earlier. Inflation remains a main concern for traders and investors, along with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and Covid lockdowns in China.
The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil futures prices solidly up and trading around $103.25 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.938%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, real earnings, the monthly Treasury budget statement and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher on more short covering after hitting a 12-month low on Tuesday. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,099.00 and then at 4,153.25. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,986.50 and then at this week’s low of 3,953.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher on more short covering after hitting a 12-month low on Tuesday. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,637.25 and then at 12,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,320.50 and then at this week’s low of 12,102.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on more short covering. Bears are still in solid technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 140 even and then at 141 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 138 12/32 even and then at Tuesday’s low of 137 4/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher on more short covering in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in solid near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 119.16.0 and then at 119.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 118.24.5 and then at 118.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0658 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 1.0490 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of $104.16 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $100.00 and then at the overnight low of $98.20. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures prices were higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. A rebound in crude oil prices at mid-week is supporting the grains. Weather in Corn Belt country has turned bearish. Drier and warmer weather is in the region for the coming days, which will allow for rapid corn and soybean planting progress. Grain market bulls still have the overall near-term chart advantage.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff