Daily Morning Report

Monday, May 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. Markets in China and Hong Kong were closed for a holiday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are trying to recover from April’s losses, which were the worst since the beginning of the pandemic.

Three major elements in the marketplace remain static but still prompting risk aversion among traders and investors: the Russia-Ukraine war, the Covid outbreak in China and problematic inflation around the globe.

China’s strict lockdowns to curb Covid-19 cases are taking a toll on the world’s second-largest economy and further disrupting global supply chains. China President Xi Jinping is under pressure to deliver on pledges to support economic growth. China’s manufacturing and services purchasing managers indexes (PMI)in April plunged to their worst levels since February of 2020.

The economic data point of the week in the U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. It’s widely believed the Fed will raise the key U.S. interest rate by 0.5%, amid the highest inflation levels in 40 years. The monthly U.S. jobs report is also due out Friday morning.

Gold prices dropped sharply overnight, pressured by the higher U.S. dollar index, higher bond yields and lower crude oil prices.

The key outside markets today sees Nymex crude oil futures prices sharply lower and trading around $101.25 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher today and not far below last week’s 20-year high. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 2.942%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending and the global manufacturing PMI.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a nine-week low overnight. Prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,200.00 and then at 4,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,116.75 and then at the February low of 4,094.25.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,000.00 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the April low of 12,801.50 and then at 12,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen 141 even and then at last Friday’s high of 141 29/32. Shorter-term support lies at 140 even and then at  139 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 119.10.0 and then at 119.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 118.22.5 and then at 118.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0612 and then at 1.0676. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 1.0490 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $102.50 and then at the overnight high of $105.16. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $101.00 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices solidly lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Lower crude oil, a higher U.S. dollar index and lower gold prices are pressuring the grains early this week. Bulls still have the near-term chart advantage. Major planting delays in the U.S. Corn Belt are in focus as much of that region remains cool and wet. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, April 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Amazon reported disappointing earnings results late Thursday. Apple reported good earnings but said Covid in China will likely constrain the company’s earnings in the current quarter.

Bloomberg today reported: “Non-dollar currencies, which came in for a hammering in recent days, got a respite on Friday. China’s Politburo vowed to boost stimulus measures, which revived sentiment toward the yuan and other currencies. The Politburo said it would ‘strengthen macro adjustments, strive to achieve full-year economic and social development goals, and keep the economy running within a reasonable range.’”

In other overnight news, the Eurozone got another piece of hot inflation data, as its consumer price index for April was up 7.5%, year-on-year. That was right in line with market expectations.

Gold prices are sharply up to end the trading week, on safe-haven demand as Europe grapples with its energy dependency on Russia, and Russia is putting the squeeze on supplying natural gas and oil to European countries.

The key outside markets today sees Nymex crude oil futures prices firmer and trading around $106.00 a barrel. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 2.844%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, the employment cost index, the Chicago ISM business survey, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,303.50 and then at 4,350.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,182.50 and then at this week’s low of 4,136.75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,420.50 and then at this week’s high of 13,583.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,801.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in solid technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen 142 even and then at this week’s high of 143 9/32. Shorter-term support lies at Thursday’s low of 140 12/32 and then at this week’s low of 139 28/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.24.0 and then at 120.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 118.26.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a contract and five-year low on Thursday. Bears still have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0676 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 1.0490 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have had a good week and prices are poised to close at a technically bullish weekly high close on Friday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $107.50 and then at the April high of $109.20. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $104.54 and then at $102.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Not much new this week. Corn and soybean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls have the slight near-term chart advantage. Planting delays in the U.S. Corn Belt are in focus as much of that region remains cool and wet. Rising raw commodity price inflation continues to be a major underlying bullish element for the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, April 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls are working to shore up their markets after getting shellacked on Tuesday. The major indexes remain in near-term downtrends on the daily charts, suggesting the path of least resistance for prices remains sideways to lower.

This week is the busiest U.S. corporate earnings week of the quarter. So far most of the earnings reports have been upbeat.

In overnight news, the Japanese yen hit a 20-year low against the U.S. dollar as the Bank of Japan has reinforced its commitment to low interest rates despite rising inflation. Japan is bucking the trend of other major countries who have or are considering tightening their monetary policies. Meantime, the Euro currency fell to a five-year low against the dollar as soaring energy prices crimp the Euro zone economy. The U.S. dollar index is solidly up again today and hit another two-year high.

The other key outside markets today sees Nymex crude oil futures prices slightly up and trading around $102.50 a barrel. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 2.804%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the advance first-quarter GDP estimate and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,258.75 and then at this week’s high of 4,303.50. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,200.50 and then at this week’s low of 4,136.75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,347.25 and then at this week’s high of 13,583.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,801.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 143 9/32 and then at 144 even. Shorter-term support lies at 141 even and then at this week’s low of 139 28/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in solid near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 120.18.5 and then at 120.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119.07.5 and then at 119.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower and hit another contract and five-year low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0600 and then at 1.0676. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight contract low of 1.0500 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $103.05 and then at $104.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $100.00 and then at $98.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls have the slight near-term chart advantage. Planting delays in the U.S. Corn Belt are in focus as much of that region remains cool and wet. Rising raw commodity price inflation continues to be a major underlying bullish element for the grains. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, April 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins, on corrective bounces after big losses Tuesday. This week is the busiest U.S. corporate earnings week of the quarter, which will help drive stock prices. So far most of the earnings reports have been upbeat. However, at present geopolitics is trumping corporate earnings as risk aversion remains elevated amid the Russia-Ukraine war that is the biggest battlefield in Europe since World War Two. Inflation worries are also near the front burner of the marketplace.

A feature in the marketplace this week is the soaring value of the U.S. dollar, which today hit another two-year high. Meantime, the Euro currency today hit a five-year low. The greenback is seeing safe-haven demand amid the geopolitical crisis. The Euro zone is getting hammered by soaring energy costs, as much of Europe gets its energy from Russia. Russia on Tuesday cut off natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria.

The other key outside market sees Nymex crude oil futures prices slightly up and trading around $102.00 a barrel. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 2.778%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the advance economic indicators report, pending home sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce from solid losses Tuesday. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,303.50 and then at 4,350.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,136.75.00 and then at the February low of 4,094.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce after hitting a 12-month low on Tuesday. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,183.50 and then at this week’s high of 13,583.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,801.50 and then at 12,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 143 9/32 and then at 144 even. Shorter-term support lies at Tuesday’s low of 141 even and then at this week’s low of 139 28/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in solid near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.18.5 and then at 120.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Tuesday’s low of 119.07.5 and then at 119.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower and hit another contract and five-year low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0700 and then at 1.0759. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight contract low of 1.0606 and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $103.00 and then at $104.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $100.00 and then at $98.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls have the slight near-term chart advantage. Planting delays in the U.S. Corn Belt are in focus as much of that region remains cool and wet. Rising raw commodity price inflation continues to be a major underlying bullish element for the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff