Daily Morning Report

Friday, May 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins, on follow-through selling from Thursday’s shellacking. The U.S. stock index bears have quickly regained the solid near-term technical advantage as prices are in downtrends on the daily bar charts.

Traders and investors are awaiting Friday morning’s U.S. employment situation report for April. The key non-farm jobs number in the report is expected to come in at up 400,000, which compares to a rise of 431,000 in the March report.

The key outside markets today sees Nymex crude oil futures prices higher and trading around $110.50 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 3.074%. 

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the consumer credit report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have regained the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,200.00 and then at 4,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,099.25 and then at this week’s low of 4,056.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,000.00 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,705.25 and then at 12,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 138 even and then at 139 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s contract low of 136 19/32 and then at 136 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 118.16.0 and then at 118.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s contract low of 117.26.0 and then at 117.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0658 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 1.0490 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $111.37 and then at $113.51. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $107.24 and then at $105.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Weather forecasts for the Corn Belt and wheat country have turned bearish. Drier and warmer weather is coming to the Corn Belt in the coming days, which will allow for rapid corn and soybean planting progress. Meantime, some beneficial precipitation in the U.S. hard red winter wheat country will provide some relief to suffering wheat crops. Grain market bulls still have the near-term chart advantage.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, May 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly up and Asian shares mostly down. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins, on corrective pullbacks after strong gains posted Wednesday afternoon.

Traders Thursday are still digesting the Federal Reserve move Wednesday afternoon to raise its key interest rate, the Fed funds rate, by 0.5%, which was expected by the marketplace. The rate hike is the first 0.5% increase in 22 years and comes amid the highest U.S. inflation levels in 40 years. The FOMC statement said the Fed will continue to raise interest rates as appropriate. At Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference, the Fed chief said inflation levels are “much too high” and are presently spreading in the economy but are likely to stabilize soon. However, Powell added that he does not see inflation declining any time soon. Importantly, Powell said the U.S. central bank is not considering 0.75% rate increase increments. He did say 0.5% rate increases are on the table for the next two meetings. On the positive side, Powell said the U.S. economy is strong and well positioned to handle the upcoming Fed interest rate increases. The marketplace’s read on the statement was dovish on U.S. monetary policy. Others might argue the FOMC statement and Powell’s remarks were just less hawkish than previous recent remarks from Federal Reserve officials.

U.S. stock indexes Wednesday afternoon soared on the Fed news, gold posted solid gains and bitcoin and crypto currencies rallied sharply, too. However, the U.S. stock indexes has quickly lost their sizzle as many market watchers reckon not much has really changed regarding overall Fed policy.

The Bank of England is at its regular monetary policy meeting raised its interest rate by 0.25%. The BOE raised its annual inflation forecast significantly, to 10.25%. A rate hike was expected but the inflation forecast was a surprise on the upside.

Traders and investors are now awaiting Friday morning’s U.S. employment situation report for April. The key non-farm jobs number in the report is expected to come in at up 400,000, which compares to a rise of 431,000 in the March report.

The key outside markets today sees Nymex crude oil futures prices slightly up and trading around $108.00 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading after selling off Tuesday afternoon. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 2.966%. The 10-year yield early this week briefly hit a 3.5-year high just above 3%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, preliminary productivity and costs, the global services PMI, and monthly chain store sales data.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce following strong gains posted Wednesday. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart but more gains this week would likely negate the downtrend. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,303.00 and then at 4,350.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,200.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of 4,142.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading after solid gains seen Wednesday. Prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,555.25 and then at 13,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,200.00 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 140 24/32 and then at 141 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 139 1/32 and then at the contract low of 138 14/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 119.00.0 and the overnight high of 119.09.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s overnight contract low of 118.04.5 and then at 118.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0658 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0550 and then at the contract low of 1.0490. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the April high of $109.20 and then at $110.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $106.00 and then at $105.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls have regained their footing late this week. Sharply higher crude oil prices this week are supporting the grains. Bulls have the near-term chart advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, May 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

The economic data point of the week in the U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. It’s widely believed the Fed will raise the key U.S. interest rate by 0.5%, amid the highest inflation levels in 40 years. A Barron’s headline this morning read: “The Fed’s big hikes won’t fight inflation from soaring oil prices.” The article argues that central banks can only control the demand side of the economic equation by raising interest rates — not the supply side.

The European Union has proposed a phased-in ban on Russian crude oil imports and that has crude oil prices sharply higher at mid-week. The key outside markets today sees Nymex crude oil futures prices are trading around $106.50 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is a bit weaker in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 2.965%. The 10-year yield early this week briefly hit a 3.5-year high just above 3%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the international trade report, the U.S. services PMI, the ISM report on business services and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,250.00 and then at 4,300.00. Support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 4,129.00 and then at 4,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,250.00 and then at 13,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,709.75 and then at 12,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in solid technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 140 24/32 and then at 141 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 139 1/32 and then at the contract low of 138 14/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 119.02.0 and then at 119.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 118.04.5 and then at 118.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0612 and then at 1.0676. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 1.0490 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $107.99 and then at the April high of $109.20. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $105.00 and then at today’s low of $102.95. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Sharply higher crude oil prices overnight are supporting the grains early today. Bulls have the near-term chart advantage, but appear a bit tired and need some fresh bullish news because it appears they have factored all the friendly news into prices, such as major planting delays in the U.S. Corn Belt, drought in wheat country and the Russia-Ukraine war and its market implications.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, May 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The Nasdaq and S&P stock indexes are near their 12-month lows scored Monday. A brief “flash crash” occurred in European stock markets Monday, reportedly on an erroneous trade entered by a Citigroup in Sweden.

In other overnight news, the Euro zone producer price index for March was up 5.3% from February and up 36.8%, year-on-year. The mammoth rise was mostly due to soaring energy costs, but still, excluding energy the PPI was up 13.6%, year-on-year.

Australia’s central bank overnight raised its key interest rates by 0.25%–the first rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia in a decade.

The economic data point of the week in the U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. It’s widely believed the Fed will raise the key U.S. interest rate by 0.5%, amid the highest inflation levels in 40 years. The monthly U.S. jobs report is also due out Friday morning.

The key outside markets today sees Nymex crude oil futures prices lower and trading around $103.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 2.967%. The 10-year yield early this week hit a 3.5-year high just above 3%. The yield on the benchmark German 10-year bond (bund) rose above 1% for the first time since 2015.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, domestic auto industry sales and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a 12-month low Monday. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,200.00 and then at 4,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at Monday’s low of 4,056.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart and hit a 12-month low Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,171.50 and then at 13,300.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 12,709.75 and then at 12,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears are still in solid technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 140 15/32 and then at 141 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 139 1/32 and then at the contract low of 138 14/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a contract low overnight. Bears are in solid near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 119.02.0 and then at 119.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 118.04.5 and then at 118.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0612 and then at 1.0676. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 1.0490 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $105.00 and then at $106.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $103.00 and then at $102.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures prices were mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls have the near-term chart advantage, but need some fresh bullish news because it appears they have factored all the friendly news into prices, such as major planting delays in the U.S. Corn Belt, drought in wheat country and the Russia-Ukraine war and its market implications.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff