Daily Morning Report

Friday, October 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls have had a good couple days late this week, and gains on Friday would suggest that the indexes have put in market bottoms. Trader and investor risk appetite is more upbeat late this week as the U.S. Senate agreed on and passed a bill to extend the debt limit to December.

Price action in U.S. stock and financial markets Friday will likely heavily depend on the U.S. employment report from the Labor Department on Friday morning—arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month. The key non-farm jobs number in that report is forecast at up 500,000 in September after a paltry gain of 235,000 in August. Look for higher market volatility in the immediate aftermath of the jobs report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil futures are up and trading around $79.00 a barrel. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.586% and overnight climbed above 1.6%–the highest level since June. 

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the monthly wholesale trade report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,421.50 and then at 4,450.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,355.00 and then at 4,320.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,001.25 and then at 15,150.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 14,767.00 and then at 14,600.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are down and hit a 13-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 159 even and then at Thursday’s high of 159 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 157 27/32 and then at 157 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are down and hit a 13-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131.11.0 and then at 131.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.04.0 and then at 131.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1600 and then at this week’s high of 1.1656. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1544 and then at 1.1500. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have quickly regained momentum late this week after Thursday’s spike low. The shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $79.78 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at of $77.50 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were firmer overnight. Some better risk appetite late this week is encouraging the grain market bulls. Short covering is featured in corn and soybeans late this week. Harvesting of the U.S. corn and soybean crops is progressing rapidly and that’s bearish (commercial hedge pressure). The corn and soybean market bears still have the near-term technical advantage, while the wheat bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, October 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trading has been choppy in the indexes but near-term price downtrends are in place for the S&P and Nasdaq futures. Trader and investor risk appetite is a bit more upbeat Thursday as U.S. lawmakers may be close to agreeing on a short-term debt-limit expansion into December. Also, crude oil and natural gas prices have dropped significantly late this week after Russian President Putin announced Russia would help stabilize global energy prices. That news somewhat assuaged nervous Europeans that are heading into winter and worried about securing natural gas or heating oil.

Traders are looking ahead to the U.S. employment report from the Labor Department on Friday morning—arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month. The key non-farm jobs number in that report is forecast at up 500,000 in September after a paltry gain of 235,000 in August. Look for higher market volatility in the immediate aftermath of the jobs report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil futures are down and trading around $76.00 a barrel after hitting a nearly seven-year high earlier this week. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.517%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, monthly retail chain store sales, and consumer credit.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,400.00 and then at 4,425.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,355.00 and then at 4,320.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,000.00 and then at 15,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,767.00 and then at 14,600.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up on tepid short covering after hitting a 13-week low on Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 160 even and then at this week’s high of 160 20/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 158 31/32 and then at this week’s low of 158 6/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at 131.28.0 and then at 132.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.17.0 and then at this week’s low of 131.13.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a 14-month low on Wednesday. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1600 and then at this week’s high of 1.1656. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1544 and then at 1.1500. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Price action the past two days has produced a bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart, which is one technical clue that a market top is now in place. The shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $77.23 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at of $75.00 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were firmer overnight. Some better risk appetite late this week is encouraging the grain market bulls. Traders are awaiting this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report. Harvesting of the U.S. corn and soybean crops is progressing rapidly and that’s bearish (commercial hedge pressure). The corn and soybean market bears have the near-term technical advantage, while the wheat bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, October 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to lower openings when the New York day session begins. Trading has turned choppy in the indexes but near-term price downtrends are in place for the S&P and Nasdaq futures. U.S. lawmakers are still struggling to agree upon a big government spending bill as will as a debt-limit bill. Reports say the Biden administration is willing to reduce the size of the spending bill to get Republicans to agree to it.

The U.S. data point of the day is the ADP national employment report for September, which is forecast at up 425,000 jobs versus a gain of 374,000 seen in the August ADP report. This report precedes the more important U.S. employment report from the Labor Department on Friday morning. The key non-farm jobs number in that report is forecast at up 500,000 in September after a paltry gain of 235,000 in August.

Reports said India’s September gold imports in September rose 658% from September of 2020. India imported 91 metric tons of gold in September compared to 12 metric tons in September of 2020. Jewelry makers stocked up as the Indian currency, the rupee, appreciated and gold prices fell.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher and back near last week’s 12-month high. Nymex crude oil futures are slightly down and trading around $78.75 a barrel after hitting a nearly seven-year high overnight. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.566%. For perspective, the German 10-year bund is trading at minus 0.150% and the U.K. 10-year gilt at 1.143%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,339.50 and then at this week’s high of 4,362.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the September low of 4,293.75 and then at 4,250.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly down in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,674.75 and then at this week’s high of 14,835.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,367.75 and then at 14,200.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a 13-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 159 6/32 and then at 160 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 158 6/32 and then at 158 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131.24.0 and then at 132.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.13.0 and then at the September low of 131.07.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are solidly down and hit a 14-month low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1600 and then at this week’s high of 1.1656. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1544 and then at 1.1500. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker after hitting another seven-year high overnight. Bulls are in solid technical control. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $77.47 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to firmer overnight. Not much new at mid-week. Harvesting of the U.S. corn and soybean crops is progressing rapidly and that’s bearish (commercial hedge pressure). The corn and soybean market bears have the near-term technical advantage, while the wheat bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff