Daily Morning Report

Thursday, October 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock market bulls are back in business as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq indexes are closing on their record highs scored in September. A good corporate earnings season has lifted trader and investor risk sentiment as they work through what can be the historically difficult month of October. For the moment it appears the marketplace has pushed to the back burner rising inflation and the prospect of major global economies slowing down in their post-pandemic recoveries.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Crude oil prices are lower and trading around $83.00 a barrel. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.654%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, existing home sales and leading economic indicators.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker but not far below the record high scored in September. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up again. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 4,539.50 and then at 4,565.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 4,471.75 and then at this week’s low of 4,436.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,446.50 and then at 15,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 15,269.00 and then at this week’s low of 15,038.75. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 158 15/32 and then at 159 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 157 10/32 and then at the October low of 157 3/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 130.24.0 and then at this week’s high of 130.31.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 130.08.0 and then at 130.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1681 and then at 1.1700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 1.1620 and then at this week’s low of 1.1584. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are a bit lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-year high overnight. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance in at the overnight high of $83.96 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $82.00 and then at $81.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower overnight on some profit taking from this week’s good gains. Inflation worries and some global raw commodity supply shortages are likely luring speculative buying interest into the grain markets and that could continue to push prices higher. Corn and soybean bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls remain in firm technical command. Due out today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, October 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes have made impressive recoveries from their October lows and are now in position to challenge the record highs scored in September. Mostly upbeat corporate earnings reports are presently trumping worries about inflation and slowing global economic growth.

In overnight news Bitcoin prices pushed above $64,000 and are near the record high, after a U.S. exchange traded fund on the crypto-currency debuted on Tuesday.

The Eurozone September consumer price index was reported up 0.5% from August and up 3.4%, year-on-year. Those numbers were right in line with market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Crude oil prices are lower and trading around $82.00 a barrel. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.65%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady and near this week’s six-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up again. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,517.50 and then at the record high of 4,539.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 4,471.75 and then at this week’s low of 4,436.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher and near this week’s four-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,500.00 and then at 15,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 15,269.00 and then at this week’s low of 15,038.75. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 158 16/32 and then at 159 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 157 17/32 and then at the October low of 157 3/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at this week’s high of 130.31.0 and then at 131.06.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 130.08.0 and then at 130.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a six-week-old price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated, to suggest a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1681 and then at 1.1700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 1.1620 and then at this week’s low of 1.1584. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance in December futures at the overnight high of $82.60 and then at this week’s high of $83.18. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $81.00 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were firmer overnight. Inflation worries and some global raw commodity supply shortages are likely luring speculative buying interest into the grain markets and that could continue to push prices higher. Corn and soybean bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls remain in firm technical command.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, October 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins.

Still near the front burner of the marketplace is the global supplies shortage and transportation bottlenecks that have many of those supplies’ prices rising, including energy. Many industrial metals prices are soaring, including copper, aluminum and magnesium. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a seven-year high of $83.58 a barrel overnight. Natural gas prices are also at very elevated levels. As winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere, amid the rising energy costs and worries in some countries about securing winter heating needs, it seems “Murphy’s law” will almost certainly come into play: a much harsher-than-normal winter for many countries in the Northern Hemisphere.

The other key outside market today sees the U.S. dollar index solidly lower. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.597%. For perspective, the U.K. 10-year gilt yield is presently 1.135% and the German 10-year bund yield is at -0.144%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly chain store and Johnson Redbook retail reports, and new residential construction.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit a five-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up again. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,525.00 and then at the record high of 4,539.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,471.75 and then at this week’s low of 4,436.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,400.00 and then at 15,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,200.00 and then at this week’s low of 15,038.75. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 159 25/32 and then at 160 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 158 21/32 and then at 158 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are a bit lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130.31.0 and then at 131.06.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.20.5 and then at this week’s low of 130.14.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a six-week-old price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated, to suggest a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1700 and then at 1.1750. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1620 and then at this week’s low of 1.1584. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a seven-year high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance in December futures at this week’s high of $83.18 and then at $84.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $82.00 and then at $81.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. Bullish outside markets on this day—higher crude oil prices and a lower U.S. dollar index—are supporting the grains Tuesday. Corn and soybean bears have the near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls remain in technical command. Harvesting of the U.S. corn and soybean crops is in full swing and that’s still bearish and will also keep gains limited in corn and soybeans.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, October 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins. The stock index bulls have gained strength late this week, amid corporate earnings reports that have been generally upbeat.

The key U.S. data point Friday is the monthly retail sales report for September, which is forecast down 0.2% from August after a gain of 0.7% in August from July.

Traders and investors have been watching developments on raw commodity/supply chain front. Winter is approaching in the Northern Hemisphere and some countries are worried about securing adequate energy supplies. The U.S. government has implemented 24-hour-a-day work shifts at major West Coast U.S. ports. And raw material prices are rising rapidly, with copper prices on the London Metal Exchange rising over 7% just this week. All of the above are likely to add to inflationary price pressures that could become problematic down the road.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission appears ready to allow the first U.S. Bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund to begin trading. That helped push Bitcoin to within striking distance of $60,000 Friday.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil futures are higher, hit a seven-year high and trading around $82.00 a barrel. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching around 1.547%.   

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey, retail sales, import and export prices, manufacturing and trade inventories and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are modestly up and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. A five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated late this week and the bulls have regained the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,450.00 and then at 4,472.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,426.25 and then at 4,400.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. A five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,112.75 and then at 15,250.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,000.00 and then at 14,850.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 160 11/32 and then at 160 20/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Thursday’s low of 159 6/32 and then at 158 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at this week’s high of 131.19.5 and then at 131.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday’s low of 131.06.0 and then at 131.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1637 and then at the October high of 1.1656. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1600 and then at this week’s low of 1.1537. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a seven-year high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $82.30 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Thursday’s low of $80.38 and then at this week’s low of $79.42. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. Weekly USDA export sales are out today. Corn and soybean bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls remain in technical command. Harvesting of the U.S. corn and soybean crops has progressed rapidly and that’s bearish and will also keep pressure on corn and soybeans. It’s likely that the bearish corn and soybean markets will limit the upside in wheat for the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff