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Daily Morning Report

Inflation data in focus Thursday

October 14, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, October 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly higher in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. corporate earnings reports are featured this week.

The U.S. data point of the day is the producer price index report for September, which is seen up 0.6% versus a 0.7% rise reported in August. The U.S. consumer price index report on Wednesday ran a little hotter than expected. Meantime, in China, its producer price index in September rose a record 10.7%, year-on-year. The August reading was up 9.5%. Recent inflation gauges from the major world economies are suggesting higher inflation may be more than just transient, as has been repeatedly suggested by Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell.

Gold prices hit a four-week high overnight and are trading above $1,800.00 an ounce. It appears gold traders may be finally realizing that rising inflationary pressures are bullish for metals, as history shows.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil futures are higher and trading around $81.30 a barrel. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching around 1.54%.   

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report. Several Federal Reserve, IMF and World Bank officials are scheduled to speak today.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are up in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,400.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,407.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,354.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,317.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the October high of 15,001.25 and then at 15,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,767.50 and then at this week’s low of 14,585.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on more short covering after hitting a nearly four-month low on Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 160 even and then at 160 20/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 159 6/32 and then at 158 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher on more short covering after hitting a nearly four-month low on Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at this week’s high of 131.15.5 and then at 131.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.06.0 and then at 131.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading, on more short covering. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1637 and then at the October high of 1.1656. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1600 and then at this week’s low of 1.1537. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $82.18 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $80.41 and then at this week’s low of $79.42. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight, on corrective bounces from Wednesday’s selling pressure. Corn and soybean bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls remain in technical command. Harvesting of the U.S. corn and soybean crops has progressed rapidly and that’s bearish and will also keep pressure on corn and soybeans. It’s likely that the bearish corn and soybean markets will limit the upside in wheat for the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Corn bears in technical control

October 13, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

The corn futures market has been trending lower since late spring. The bears are in firm technical command and have gained fresh power recently, to suggest more downside price action in the near term. There’s an old saying in the grain markets: “Corn is king.” If corn prices continue to trend sideways to lower, gains in wheat will be limited, and soybeans will also be pulled down. Stay tuned!

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

U.S. inflation data in focus at mid-week

October 13, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, October 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

The focus of the marketplace at mid-week is on the U.S. consumer price index report for September, which is expected up 0.3% from August and up 5.3%, year-on-year. Rising energy costs and supply-chain bottlenecks in recent weeks have traders and investors even more keenly focused on inflation prospects in the months ahead. The Federal Reserve will closely scrutinize today’s CPI data as it mulls the timing of tapering its monthly government bond purchases (quantitative easing).

In overnight news, China reported its exports in September were up 28.1%, year-on-year, while imports were up 17.6%. The exports number was a bit higher than expected and the imports number a bit lower than expected.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil futures are weaker and trading around $80.00 a barrel. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.565%.   

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the FOMC minutes and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of 4,365.00 and then at 4,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,317.25 and then at 4,300.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,897.25 and then at last week’s high of 15,001.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,585.50 and then at 14,500.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on more short covering after hitting a nearly four-month low on Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 159 10/32 and then at 159 25/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 158 14/32 and then at 158 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher on more short covering after hitting a nearly four-month low on Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131.08.5 and then at 131.12.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.01.0 and then at this week’s low of 131.25.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1601 and then at the October high of 1.1656. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1537 and then at 1.1500. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the strong near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $81.00 and then at this week’s high of $82.18. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $79.47 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to weaker overnight. Corn and soybean bears have the firm near-term technical advantage after Tuesday’s bearish USDA demand report. Wheat bulls remain in technical command. Harvesting of the U.S. corn and soybean crops has progressed rapidly and that’s bearish and will also keep pressure on corn and soybeans. It’s likely that the bearish corn and soybean markets will limit the upside in wheat for the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Energy supply worries on the rise

October 12, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, October 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly lower in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are still a bit nervous as mid-October nears. On the front burner on this day it’s concerns about energy supplies heading into the Northern Hemisphere’s winter. Said Bloomberg in a morning email dispatch: Shortages of coal and natural gas heading into winter are expected to keep demand high. The latest pressure on energy supplies comes from record thermal coal prices in China as key mining regions are hit by flooding. The high cost of power is already feeding through to metal prices, with aluminum rising to the highest since July of 2008.

Rising inflation, due in part to the increasing energy prices, is also making the marketplace uneasy. U.S. inflation reports are due out Wednesday and Thursday mornings and will be closely scrutinized.

The troubled Chinese property Giant, Evergrande, reportedly missed another big debt payment and traders are increasingly worried about a contagion effect.

In other overnight news, Germany’s closely watched ZEW economic conditions index for October was downbeat, showing a “current conditions” reading of 21.6 versus 31.9 in September.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil futures are slightly up after hitting a seven-year high Monday, and are trading around $80.75 a barrel. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.598%.   

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the NFIB small business index, the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store sales reports. The International Monetary Fund world economic outlook is issued today.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,400.00 and then at last week’s high of 4,421.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,317.25 and then at 4,300.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 14,897.25 and then at last week’s high of 15,001.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,586.00 and then at 14,500.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a nearly four-month low on Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 158 21/32 and then at 159 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 157 13/32 and then at Monday’s low of 157 3/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a nearly four-month low on Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131.08.0 and then at 131.12.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 130.25.5 and then at 131.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.1601 and then at the October high of 1.1656. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the October low of 1.1544 and then at 1.1500. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the strong near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $82.18 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $80.00 and then at Monday’s low of $79.55. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed overnight. On tap today is the monthly USDA supply and demand report and the weekly USDA export inspections report. Harvesting of the U.S. corn and soybean crops is progressing rapidly and that’s bearish and will limit price gains in corn and soybeans. The corn and soybean market bears have the near-term technical advantage, while the wheat bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

U.S. Treasury futures bears in control

October 11, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

The U.S. Treasury bond and note futures markets see their prices trending down and hitting nearly four-month lows early this week. The bears are in technical control, suggesting still more downside price pressure on bonds and notes (rising yields). Stay tuned!

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Crude oil prices at 7-year highs

October 11, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, October 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. government is closed for the Columbus Day holiday Monday, including the U.S. Treasury markets. That is likely to make for quieter trading in the U.S. today. Traders and investors worldwide are tentative to start the trading week. Supply-chain bottlenecks and rising energy prices are prompting worries about slowing global economic growth. Goldman Sachs over the weekend cut its U.S. economic growth forecasts for this year and next. Some European countries are worried about having enough energy for winter heating. These concerns followed an uninspiring U.S. employment report released Friday morning.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil futures are solidly up, hit a seven-year high overnight, and are trading around $81.50 a barrel. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.612%. Bond yields are on the rise, which has heightened fears of rising inflation or even stagflation, which is a combination of rising prices and slowing economic growth. 

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes is light and includes the employment trends index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,388.00 and then at last week’s high of 4,421.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,355.00 and then at 4,320.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,829.00 and then at last week’s high of 15,001.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,600.00 and then at 14,500.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are down and hit a nearly four-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 157 23/32 and then at 158 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 157 even and then at 156 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are down and hit a nearly four-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131.01.5 and then at 131.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 130.25.5 and then at 131.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1601 and then at the October high of 1.1656. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the October low of 1.1544 and then at 1.1500. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher in early U.S. trading and hit a seven-year high. Bulls have the strong near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $82.00 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $81.00 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were firmer overnight. Rising crude oil futures are supporting grains early this week. Short covering is featured in corn and soybeans. Harvesting of the U.S. corn and soybean crops is progressing rapidly and that’s bearish and will limit price gains in corn and soybeans. The corn and soybean market bears have the near-term technical advantage, while the wheat bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

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Disclaimer

There is a risk of financial loss in futures and options trading. Futures trading is neither easy nor an easy way to make money. It takes hard work to have success. Please use sound money management when trading futures. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing on this website is intended to be a trading recommendation to buy or sell futures or options. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Readers are solely responsible for how they use the information on this website.

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