The world equity markets this week are a bit shaky as global bond market yields are on the rise. Rising bond yields signal rising interest rates and increasing inflationary pressures. See on the daily bar chart that March U.S. Treasury bond futures are in a solid downtrend, have this week set a new contract low, and there are no early chart clues to suggest a market bottom is close at hand. The path of least resistance for U.S. T-Bond and T-Note prices will remain sideways to lower (rising yields) until there is a significantly bullish near-term chart clue to suggest otherwise. Stay tuned!–Jim
Daily Morning Report
Tuesday, January 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
World stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The equities markets worldwide are a bit worried about rising bond yields. The U.S. 10-year note rose to a more-than-three-year high yield on Monday.
In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its fourth-quarter gross domestic product at up 0.6% from the third quarter and up 2.7%, year-on-year. Those numbers were in line with market expectations.
This is a busy events week for the marketplace. Tuesday evening President Trump delivers his state-of-the-union speech. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets Tuesday and Wednesday, which will be Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s last meeting. And on Friday the monthly U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department is due out.
Monday, January 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.
A feature in the marketplace recently is rising world bond market yields. That means rising interest rates and rising inflationary pressures. U.S. Treasury bonds and notes dropped to new contract lows in prices today.
The U.S. Dollar Index is higher in early U.S. trading Monday, on a corrective rebound after hitting a 3.5-year low last week. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are modestly lower and trading above $65.00 a barrel, on a corrective pullback after last week’s more-than-three-year high. A rising U.S. oil rig count, reported Friday, is also bearish for oil.
The currency markets have really heated up in early 2018, with any currencies in strong uptrends, while the U.S. dollar index is in a strong downtrend. History shows that trends in the currency markets tend to be stronger and longer-lasting than price trends in other markets. See on the daily bar chart for the March Euro currency futures that prices are in an accelerating uptrend and have just hit a more-than-three-year high. Euro bulls and other foreign currency bulls are fired up and looking for more price upside in the coming weeks, or longer. Stay tuned!–Jim
Friday, January 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
World stock markets were steady to mixed overnight. U.S.
stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the
New York day session begins.
The marketplace is still buzzing about comments from U.S.
President Donald Trump that were aired by CNBC on Thursday
afternoon. Trump said he ultimately wants a stronger U.S.
dollar. His remarks briefly roiled the currency markets,
with the U.S. dollar index popping on the news and other
currencies backing way off their daily highs. However, the
dollar-bullish comments from Trump quickly wore off, as
traders reckoned the slide in the dollar has been going on
for some time now and nothing changed from Trump’s
Thursday, January 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
World stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Big moves in the currency markets Wednesday have thrown a bit of uncertainty at equities traders late this week.
The U.S. Dollar Index is weaker and hit another 3.5-year low overnight. The greenback slump is a bullish element for the raw commodity sector. Most major commodities are priced in U.S. dollars on the world market. The depreciating dollar makes those commodities cheaper to purchase in non-U.S. currency. The Euro currency rose to a more-than-two-year high overnight.