Daily Morning Report

Monday, September 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins. The stock markets are seeing bounces early this week after last week’s poor performances.

In overnight news, North Korea said it fired a tactical test missile that traveled nearly 1,000 miles. That’s a reminder to the world that the rogue nation is still on the geopolitical radar screen.

Trader attention early this week is on the U.S. consumer price index report for August, set for release Tuesday morning. The CPI is forecast up 0.4% after a rise of 0.5% in July. Year-on-year the CPI is seen up 5.4% in August—the same as July. Said Bloomberg news in a morning email dispatch: “On the raw-materials side, the price pressures are becoming increasingly hard to ignore with aluminum hitting the highest level in 13 years. Oil is back above $70 a barrel this morning. Producers are pushing the higher prices through to consumers as they battle with the increased costs of raw materials, shipping bottlenecks and rising labor expenses.”

Meantime, President Biden continues to try to push his major spending plan through the Congress but is hitting road-blocks.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $70.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.334%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the monthly Treasury budget statement.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a longer-term uptrend on the charts. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,519.75 and then at the contract high of 4,539.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,446.50 and then at 4,425.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 15,702.25 and then at 15,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 15,405.75 and then at 15,300.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 163 19/32 and then at last week’s high of 163 27/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 162 13/32 and then at 162 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 133.16.0 and then at last week’s high of 133.19.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.02.5 and then at 133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are down in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading and bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1837 and then at 1.1872. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the September low of 1.1775 and then at 1.1750. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a five-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $70.78 and then at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at the overnight low of $69.51. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower overnight. Last Friday morning’s USDA supply and demand report was mostly bearish but corn and soybeans showed good corrective bounces. Key will be if those markets can show follow-through buying interest early this week. So far, that does not look to be the case. The corn and soybean market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage and the wheat bulls are fading, too. Technical damage has been inflicted in corn, wheat and soybeans recently, to suggest the path of least resistance for those markets is still sideways to lower in the near term. Seasonal weakness is also a negative for the grains, amid the just-completed U.S. wheat harvest and the soon-to-begin soybean and corn harvests.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, September 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins. It’s been a choppy week for the U.S. stock market. After some risk aversion exhibited earlier this week, traders and investors appear to be more upbeat to end the trading week. 

In overnight news, Dow Jones Newswires reported the Federal Reserve will likely begin to gradually taper its $120 billion a month bond-buying program (quantitative easing) in November.

Reports said Deutsche Bank AG has joined other investment banks in urging caution on investors continuing to load up on U.S. stocks. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 stock indexes have recently hit record highs. The investment bank warned there is increased risk of an equity market correction as stock valuations have risen to around 21 times earnings.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly weaker. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $69.25 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.312%. 

U.S. President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping had a lengthy telephone conversation Thursday in an effort to ease tensions between the world’s two largest economies. The marketplace is reading that as a positive development.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the producer price index and monthly wholesale trade. There is also an important USDA supply and demand report for grains.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a longer-term uptrend on the charts. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,539.50 and then at 4,565.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,476.25 and then at 4,450.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 15,702.25 and then at 15,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,515.00 and then at last week’s low of 15,409.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 163 19/32 and then at this week’s high of 163 27/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Thursday’s low of 162 13/32 and then at 162 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.16.0 and then at this week’s high of 133.19.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday’s low of 133.04.0 and then at 133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but bulls are still working on a fledgling price uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1873 and then at 1.1900. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the September low of 1.1808 and then at 1.1775. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $68.00 and then at this week’s low of $67.56. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were a bit firmer overnight. The major report of the week, if not the month, for the grain markets is Friday morning’s USDA supply and demand report. Look for higher volatility in the immediate aftermath of the noon EDT report. Weekly USDA grain export sales data is also out Friday morning. The corn and soybean market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and the wheat bulls are fading, too. Technical damage has been inflicted in corn, wheat and soybeans recently, to suggest the path of least resistance for those markets will be sideways to lower in the near term. Seasonal weakness is also a negative for the grains, amid the just-completed U.S. wheat harvest and the soon-to-begin soybean and corn harvests.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, September 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly down in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite is less robust this week. The resurgence of the delta variant of Covid in major economies has the marketplace more pensive.

In overnight news, China reported its August consumer price index up 0.8%, year-on-year, which was below expectations for a rise of 1.0%.

In a Wall Street Journal interview, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said recent weaker U.S. economic data has likely pushed back the start of the Fed’s tapering of its bond-buying program (quantitative easing), but added he still expects a U.S. interest rate hike in late 2022.

Traders are awaiting the results of the regular monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank that is in progress as of this writing. No changes in ECB interest rate policy were expected, but traders will scrutinize any language or action on cutting back on the ECB’s bond-buying program.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly higher and trading around $69.50 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.327%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report. Several Federal Reserve officials will participate in an economic forum today.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading but not far below last week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a longer-term uptrend on the charts. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,539.50 and then at 4,550.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,476.25 and then at 4,450.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a slightly down in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract and record high Tuesday. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 15,702.25 and then at 15,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,500.00 and then at last week’s low of 15,409.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are modestly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 163 even and then at 163 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 162 even and then at this week’s low of 161 20/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.12.5 and then at 133.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 133.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 132.28.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but a downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.1873 and then at 1.1900. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.1808 and then at 1.1775. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of $68.31 and then at this week’s low of $67.64. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were lower overnight. The corn and soybean market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and the wheat bulls are fading, too. Technical damage has been inflicted in corn, wheat and soybeans recently, to suggest the path of least resistance for those markets will be sideways to lower in the near term. Seasonal weakness is also a negative for the grains, amid the just-completed U.S. wheat harvest and the soon-to-begin soybean and corn harvests. The major report of the week, if not the month, for the grain markets is Friday’s USDA supply and demand report. Weekly USDA grain export sales data is also out Friday morning.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, September 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly down in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion is a bit keener this week, as traders and investors are more worried about global economic growth prospects amid the Delta variant of the coronavirus that continues to spread in many major economies. Last Friday’s weak U.S. jobs report has supported the aforementioned notions and also thrown a scare into the stock market bulls.

Economic data highlights the rest of this week include scheduled speeches today by U.S. Federal Reserve officials John Williams, president of the New York Fed, and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan. On Thursday the regular monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank occurs. No changes in ECB interest rate policy are expected, but traders will scrutinize any language regarding cutting back on the ECB’s bond-buying program (quantitative easing).

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $69.50 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.351%. 

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly chain store and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index, and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,539.50 and then at 4,550.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,487.50 and then at 4,465.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a slightly down in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract and record high Tuesday. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 15,702.25 and then at 15,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,500.00 and then at last week’s low of 15,409.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 162 26/32 and then at 163 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 161 20/32 and then at 160 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 133.12.0 and then at 133.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 133.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 132.28.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a four-week high last Friday. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but a downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1873 and then at 1.1900. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.1808 and then at 1.1775. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $68.31 and then at this week’s low of $67.64. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mostly higher overnight, on more short covering. Not much new this week. The corn and soybean market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Technical damage has been inflicted in corn, wheat and soybeans recently, to suggest the path of least resistance for those markets will be sideways to lower in the near term. Seasonal weakness is also a negative for the grains, amid the just-completed U.S. wheat harvest and the soon-to-begin soybean and corn harvests. The major report of the week, if not the month, for the grain markets is Friday’s USDA supply and demand report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff