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Daily Morning Report

Marketplace thinking Fed will remain easy

August 25, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, August 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings and at or near record highs when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is keener this week as attention of the marketplace is on the annual Federal Reserve symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming late this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is slated to speak virtually on Friday. Many traders and investors are thinking the Federal Reserve will decide to extend its easy-money policies for a longer period of time than they had reckoned just a few weeks ago, due to the rapidly spreading Covid delta variant. The marketplace that remains flush with cash continues to see much of that cash flowing into stock markets.

U.S. congressional Democrats on Tuesday agreed upon a $1 trillion spending bill for infrastructure, and that is also boosting risk appetite at mid-week.

Meantime, Asian stock markets were mostly weaker Wednesday on fears the surging coronavirus variant will once again dent economic growth in Asia.

In Europe, the closely watched German Ifo business expectations index fell in August for the second month in a row.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer and still trending higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $67.50 a barrel. This week’s strong rebound in crude prices suggests the market has put in a near-term bottom. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.30%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, durable goods orders and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and still have momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,481.50 and then at 4,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,426.00 and then at 4,400.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid chart advantage and have momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 15,368.25 and then at 15,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,200.00 and then at this week’s low of 15,076.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 164 even and then at this week’s high of 164 10/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 163 even and then at 162 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.15.0 and then at this week’s high of 133.22.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 133.05.0 and then at 133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1790 and then at 1.1831. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1720 and then at last week’s low of 1.1690. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. It appears a near-term market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $68.00 and then at $69.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $66.92 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were weaker overnight. Corn and soybeans saw corrective pullbacks overnight after good gains posted Tuesday. Late-season rains in the U.S. Midwest and northern Plains states are providing some benefit to the crops and that’s a bit bearish at mid-week.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

U.S. stock indexes at record highs again

August 24, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, August 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were flat to firmer overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings and at or near record highs when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls are back in full technical command, to suggest still more upside in the near term. Fundamentally, traders are presently putting more emphasis on strong corporate earnings reports and recent solid U.S. economic data, and less emphasis on the surging coronavirus that may have the potential to damage major economies again in the coming months. This long-time market watcher is wondering if that pendulum will swing the other way after the U.S. Labor Day holiday, when the stock and financial markets enter what can be the historically rough waters of September and October.

The attention of the marketplace this week is on the annual Federal Reserve symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, starting Thursday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is slated to speak virtually on Friday. The confab has been pared back a bit and parts of it will be virtual this year due to the spreading delta variant of the coronavirus. Many traders and investors are now thinking the Federal Reserve will lean less hawkish on U.S. monetary policy at the Fed symposium, due to the rapidly spreading Covid variant.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer and still trending higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $66.60 a barrel. This week’s strong rebound in crude prices suggests the market has put in a near-term bottom. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.267%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store sales indexes, the Richmond Fed business survey, and new residential sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer and hit a contract and record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight contract high of 4,481.50 and then at 4,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,426.00 and then at 4,400.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer and hit a contract and record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid chart advantage and have regained momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 15,368.00 and then at 15,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,200.00 and then at Monday’s low of 15,076.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 164 10/32 and then at last week’s high of 164 20/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 164 1/32 and then at 163 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 133.22.0 and then at 133.27.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 133.11.5 and then at 133.06.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1775 and then at 1.1800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1720 and then at last week’s low of 1.1690. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading on short covering and bargain hunting after hitting a 2.5-month low on Monday. It appears a near-term market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $67.50 and then at $68.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $66.00 and then at the overnight low of $65.41. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed to higher overnight. Keener general marketplace risk appetite so far this week is friendly for the grain markets. A strong rally in crude oil prices this week is also a bullish outside element for the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Stock index bulls show resilience

August 23, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

The U.S. stock index bulls took a punch last week but have recovered strongly…again. The S&P stock index futures remain in a longer-term price uptrend, to suggest more gains in the near term. However, veteran market watchers know that what can be the historically turbulent months of September and October lie just ahead for the stock and financial markets. Stay tuned!

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Better risk appetite in marketplace early this week

August 23, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, August 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins. The focus of the marketplace this week is on the annual Federal Reserve symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The confab has been pared back a bit and parts of it will be virtual this year due to the spreading delta variant of the coronavirus. Early this week, traders and investors are reassessing recent notions the Federal Reserve will lean hawkish on U.S. monetary policy at the Fed symposium. The rapidly spreading Covid variant has many now thinking the Fed will have to wait longer to reel in its easy-money policies. Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan said Friday he is rethinking his call for an early tapering process for the Fed’s bond purchases, due to the spreading virus and its potential impact on the U.S. economy.

It appears there is less risk aversion in the global marketplace to start the trading week. There is still a chaotic situation in now-Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, with people, including Americans, still try to get out of that country. However, it appears the markets are now looking past the matter. Veteran market watchers are well aware of what can be the historically turbulent months of September and October that lie just ahead for the stock and financial markets.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker after hitting a 10.5-month high last Friday. Nymex crude oil futures prices are solidly higher and trading around $64.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.28%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index, the U.S. flash and services PMIs, and existing home sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and have regained momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,476.50 and then at 4,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,433.50 and then at 4,400.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid chart advantage and have regained momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 15,172.50 and then at 15,250.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 15,086.50 and then at 15,000.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 165 28/32 and then at last week’s high of 166 6/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 165 even and then at last week’s low of 164 17/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 134.06.0 and then at 134.14.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 133.29.0 and then at 133.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce after hitting a 12-month low last week. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1749 and then at 1.1800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1697 and then at last week’s low of 1.1669. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-month low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $64.32 and then at $65.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $63.00 and then at the overnight low of $61.74. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight on corrective bounces after last week’s losses. Keener general marketplace risk appetite to start the week is friendly for the grains. The key outside markets are bullish for the grains today—sharply higher crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar index.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Stock markets struggle this week

August 20, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, August 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were lower overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls are fading as the indexes are headed for their worst week since June. The CBOE volatility index has risen to its highest level since May. Keener risk aversion has been in play all this week. Many raw commodity futures markets have been hit by the risk-off attitudes. The surging coronavirus delta strain is starting to more significantly impact global economies. The Federal Reserve this week said it remains concerned about the effects of the pandemic on economies and financial markets. While the Fed appears to be presently leaning toward tightening its monetary policy as early as this fall, some market watchers now wonder if the Fed will have to hold off on tightening if the virus continues to negatively impact businesses. Traders and investors are looking ahead to the annual Federal Reserve symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, next week. More clarity on U.S. monetary policy is likely to come out of that meeting.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher and hitting another 10.5-month high overnight. Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower and near the 2.5-month low hit Thursday and are trading around $63.25 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.232%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading and need to show fresh power soon to avoid chart damage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,406.25 and then at 4,435.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,371.75 and then at this week’s low of 4,347.75. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the chart advantage but are fading a bit. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish to early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,000.00 and then at 15,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,851.00 and then at this week’s low of 14,710.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 166 6/32 and then at the contract high of 167 4/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Thursday’s low of 165 4/32 and then at this week’s low of 164 17/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 134.19.5 and then at 134.25.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday’s low of 134.05.5 and then at this week’s low of 133.29.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading, on a tepid bounce after hitting a 12-month low Thursday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 1.1721 and then at Wednesday’s high of 1.1749. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1670 and then at 1.1650. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and near this week’s 2.5-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $64.10 and then at $65.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $62.63 and then at $62.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were firmer overnight on corrective bounces after Thursday’s losses. Risk-off attitudes this week have been bearish for the grains. The key outside markets have also been bearish—sharply lower crude oil prices and a solidly higher U.S. dollar index. The big event of the week for the grain markets is the annual Pro Farmer Midwest Crop tour that ends Friday afternoon with U.S. corn and soybean yield estimates.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Crude oil bears now in control

August 19, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

The Nymex crude oil futures market has hit a 2.5-month low and prices are trending lower now. Bears are in near-term technical control to suggest prices will continue to trend sideways to lower in the near term. Stay tuned!

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

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Disclaimer

There is a risk of financial loss in futures and options trading. Futures trading is neither easy nor an easy way to make money. It takes hard work to have success. Please use sound money management when trading futures. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing on this website is intended to be a trading recommendation to buy or sell futures or options. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Readers are solely responsible for how they use the information on this website.

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