Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, August 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European indexes at or near record highs and Asian shares a bit weaker. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mixed to weaker openings when the New York day session begins, but are still near their recent record highs. The U.S. Congress is showing some bipartisanship and is set to pass major budget and infrastructure spending bills from the Biden Administration, and that is keeping the marketplace generally upbeat at mid-week.

For the moment, traders and investors are looking past the worrisome rise of the new Covid variant, which is threatening to slow the global economic recovery, especially in China.

Traders and investors at mid-week are focusing on the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report for July, due out shortly, which is seen coming in at up 0.5% from July versus a rise of 0.9% in June. Year-on-year, the CPI is seen up 5.3%.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer and hitting a 4.5-month high overnight. Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower and trading around $67.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.369%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, real earnings, the monthly Treasury budget statement and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract and record high Tuesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,438.25 and then at 4,465.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,365.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid chart advantage. Prices last week hit a contract and record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 15,172.50 and then at 15,250.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,976.25 and then at the August low of 14,849.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. A three-month-old price uptrend on the daily chart is in serious jeopardy. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 163 28/32 and then at this week’s high of 164 18/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 162 17/32 and then at 162 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. A three-month-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart is in serious jeopardy. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 133.27.5 and then at this week’s high of 134.06.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.09.5 and then at 133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower and hit another nine-month low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1777 and then at 1.1800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1700 and then at 1.1650. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are still in serious technical trouble. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $68.90 and then at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $66.56 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. Trading has turned choppy. The wheat market bulls are in firm technical control, corn bulls have the slight chart advantage and the soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Traders are awaiting Thursday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report, arguably the most important grain market report of the month.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, August 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed mixed to weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Markets are quieter Tuesday morning, amid the summertime doldrums, when much of Europe is on holiday and many North American traders and investors are taking family vacations. Traders will be closely parsing speeches by a couple of Federal Reserve officials today, Loretta Mester and Charles Evans, looking for clues on the timing and direction of U.S. monetary policy—especially after last Friday’s much-stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report. Separately, reports this week say the Biden Administration generally supports appointing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to a second term.

Germany’s close watched ZEW consumer sentiment survey showed a drop for the third straight month, and to the lowest level since last November, as a rise in Covid infection rates raises concerns over a possible tightening of pandemic curbs. The ZEW economic expectations index fell to 40.4 in August from 63.3 in July, with the institute’s president warning of “increasing risks” to the German economy. The index of current conditions improved to 29.3 in August from 21.9 in July.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer and hitting a three-week high overnight. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher on a corrective bounce from recent strong selling pressure and trading around $67.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.316%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store sales reports, the NFIB small business index, and preliminary productivity and costs.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,433.25 and then at 4,450.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,365.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Prices last week hit a contract and record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 15,172.50 and then at 15,250.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 15,003.25 and then at 14,900.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a two-week low overnight. A three-month-old price uptrend on the daily chart is in jeopardy. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 164 18/32 and then at 165 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 163 10/32 and then at 163 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit a nearly three-week low overnight. A three-month-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart is in jeopardy. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 134.00.0 and then at 134.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.19.0 and then at 133.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower and hit a nine-month low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.1777 and then at 1.1800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1723 and then at 1.1700. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering. Bulls are still in serious technical trouble. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $69.00 and then at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at overnight low of $66.56 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. Trading has turned choppy. The wheat market bulls are in firm technical control, corn bulls have the slight chart advantage and the soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Traders are awaiting Thursday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report, arguably the most important grain market report of the month.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, August 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed mixed to weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is still somewhat feeling the reverberations of last Friday’s surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report that pushed the U.S. stock indexes to or near their record highs, rallied the U.S. dollar index, pushed the U.S. Treasury yields up (prices down), and smacked the gold and silver markets. Gold overnight dropped to a more-than-four-month low of $1,676.40, basis October Comex futures, while September silver futures fell to a more-than-eight-month low of $22.295 an ounce. Both markets did quickly recover from their “flash crash” overnight lows and are trading near session highs, but still down on the day. The jobs data Friday immediately set off heightened speculation the Federal Reserve would act sooner to reel in its easy monetary policies. That really spooked the metals markets bulls.

However, in focus to start the trading week is the surging new Covid strain that is forcing major economies once again to assess measures to contain the spread of the virus. China and other parts of Asia are being hit especially hard. The Delta strain surge, if not contained soon, may put a damper on any Federal Reserve notions of acting sooner to taper its bond-buying program (quantitative easing).

Somewhat assuaging the Covid concerns in the marketplace early this week is the huge U.S. infrastructure spending plan that appears ready to pass the Congress and become law.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady and hitting a two-week high overnight. Nymex crude oil futures prices are sharply down on the increased Covid worries and trading around $65.65 a barrel. Raw commodity market bulls are watching crude oil closely, knowing that if sector leader crude continues to slide, other commodity markets are likely to be pulled down, too.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the employment trends index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit lower in early U.S. trading on mild profit taking after hitting a contract and record high last Friday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,433.25 and then at 4,450.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,365.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Prices last week hit a contract and record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 15,172.50 and then at 15,250.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 15,003.25 and then at 14,900.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on a mild upside correction after Friday’s solid losses. A three-month-old price uptrend on the daily chart is now in jeopardy. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 165 even and then at Friday’s high of 165 21/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 163 24/32 and then at 163 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering from last week’s losses. A three-month-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart is now in jeopardy. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 134.15.0 and then at 134.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.27.0 and then at 133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading, on a tepid corrective bounce after hitting and hit a more-than-four-month low overnight. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1800 and then at 1.1850. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1750 and then at the March low of 1.1746. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are sharply lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $66.00 and then at $67.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the July low of $65.01 and then at $64.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were weaker overnight. The grains are seeing some selling pressure from bearish “outside markets” that include sharply lower crude oil prices and a recent rally in the U.S. dollar index. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt is also less threatening late in the growing season. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, August 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Note: I am on vacation this week. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen is producing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken’s format is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his work.

The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday’s rally, which posted a new contract high. All eyes will be on this morning’s employment report for near-term direction. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March’s low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,932.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 15,172.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,932.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,470.67.

The September S&P 500 was steady to higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the July 27^th low crossing at 4364.75 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4297.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of July’s low crossing at 4224.00. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4425.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the July 27^th low crossing at 4364.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4292.79.

INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 164-15 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off March’s low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 164-15. Second support is the July 22^nd low crossing at 163-09.

September T-notes were lower overnight as it extends this week’s decline. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.065 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews its rally off March’s low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 136.087 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 136.087. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.065. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.043.

ENERGIES: September crude oil was higher overnight as is consolidates some of this week’s decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week’s decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $71.25 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 30^th high crossing at $74.23. Second resistance is the July 13^th high crossing at $74.90. Third resistance is July’s high crossing at $76.07. First support is Thursday’s low crossing at $67.61. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67.

CURRENCIES: The September Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July’s low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.55 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July’s high, the 50% retracement level of the May-July-rally crossing at $91.49 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.55. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at $93.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.79. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-July-rally crossing at $91.49.

The September Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off the July 30^th high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.33 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off July’s low, the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $119.67 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $118.97. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $119.67. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.33. Second support is July’s low crossing at $117.64.

GRAINS: December corn was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 26^th low crossing at $5.32 1/4 would open the door for a test of July’s low crossing at $5.07. If December renews the rally off July’s low, the July 6^th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 6^th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is the July 26^th low crossing at $5.32 1/4. Second support is July’s low crossing at $5.07.

September wheat was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off Wednesday’s high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.91 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off July’s low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.47 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.28 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.47 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.05. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.91 1/4.

September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off Wednesday’s high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.78 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off the July 7^th low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.23 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.23 3/4. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at $7.45 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.78. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.60 1/4.

September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 26^th low crossing at $8.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June’s low, the September-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is July’s high crossing at $9.44 1/2. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2. First support is the July 26^th low crossing at $8.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.32 1/2.

November soybeans were higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Tuesday’s low. Overnight strength set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.61 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If November extends this week’s decline, July’s low crossing at $13.00 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is July’s high crossing at $14.23. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at $14.80. First support is July’s low crossing at $13.00 1/2. Second support is June’s low crossing at $12.40 1/2.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff