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Daily Morning Report

Risk attitudes upbeat to end the week

August 13, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, August 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly up and Asian shares mostly down. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins and are at or near their record highs. Risk aversion remains low this summer. Good corporate earnings reports the past few weeks have kept trader and investor attitudes upbeat. However, storm clouds are on the horizon. Bloomberg reports fears are increasing that the spread of the delta variant may lead to a repeat of last year’s shipping bottlenecks. The partial closure of the world’s third-busiest container port Thursday (Los Angeles) is putting pressure on already-strained supply chains ahead of the key shopping season. Bloomberg said the hub of Los Angeles is already bracing for another potential decline of traffic from China. The resulting delays could add to the price of container shipping, which is already up more than 220% this year. 

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil futures prices are a bit weaker and trading around $69.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.342%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export prices and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and poked to another contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,459.75 and then at 4,475.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,412.25 and then at last week’s low of 4,365.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Prices last week hit a contract and record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 15,172.50 and then at 15,250.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,941.25 and then at the August low of 14,849.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. A three-month-old price uptrend on the daily chart is still in serious jeopardy. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 163 28/32 and then at this week’s high of 164 18/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 162 17/32 and then at 162 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are up in early U.S. trading. A three-month-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart is still in serious jeopardy. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 133.29.0 and then at this week’s high of 134.06.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 133.09.5 and then at 133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1777 and then at 1.1800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1713 and then at 1.1700. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $69.62 and then at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $68.00 and then at $67.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were higher overnight on follow-through strength from Thursday’s gains that came in the wake of a generally bullish USDA supply and demand report. The wheat market bulls are in firm technical control, corn bulls have the firm chart advantage after big gains Thursday, and the soybean bulls have gained the slight overall near-term technical advantage.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Summertime doldrums at play this week

August 12, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, August 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European indexes firmer and at or near record highs and Asian shares a bit weaker. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins and are at or near their record highs. The summertime doldrums are presently the feature in the marketplace—not surprising for mid-August, when families are taking vacations just before school starts and as most of Europe is on holiday.

The U.S. gets another inflation reading today, as the producer price index for July is due out. The PPI is seen up 0.6% from June after rising by 1.0% in June from May.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady after hitting a 4.5-month high Wednesday. Nymex crude oil futures prices are also near steady and trading around $69.00 a barrel. The OPEC oil cartel said the new Delta Covid variant will likely dent global crude oil demand growth in 2021 and 2022. The International Energy Agency today also cut world oil demand growth in 2021, by 100,000 barrels per day, to 5.3 million barrels per day. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.351%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and poked to another contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,444.25 and then at 4,465.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,365.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Prices last week hit a contract and record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 15,172.50 and then at 15,250.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,963.00 and then at the August low of 14,849.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. A three-month-old price uptrend on the daily chart is in serious jeopardy. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 163 28/32 and then at this week’s high of 164 18/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 162 17/32 and then at 162 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. A three-month-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart is in serious jeopardy. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 133.29.0 and then at this week’s high of 134.06.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 133.09.5 and then at 133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a nine-month low Wednesday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1777 and then at 1.1800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1713 and then at 1.1700. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are still in technical trouble. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $69.62 and then at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $68.00 and then at $67.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed overnight. Trading has been choppy. The wheat market bulls are in firm technical control, corn bulls have the slight chart advantage and the soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s USDA monthly supply and demand report, arguably the most important grain market report of the month. Look for active trading in the immediate aftermath of that report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

USDX trending up again

August 11, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

The U.S. dollar index is a basket of six major currencies weighted against the greenback. See on the daily bar chart that the USDX has just hit a 4.5-month high and the bulls have restarted a price uprend. The stronger U.S. dollar is a negative element for many raw commodity markets. Reason: Many raw commodities are priced in U.S. dollars on the world markets. When the dollar appreciates, it makes those commodities more expensive to purchase in non-U.S. currency. Stay tuned!

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

US CPI on deck Wednesday

August 11, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, August 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European indexes at or near record highs and Asian shares a bit weaker. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mixed to weaker openings when the New York day session begins, but are still near their recent record highs. The U.S. Congress is showing some bipartisanship and is set to pass major budget and infrastructure spending bills from the Biden Administration, and that is keeping the marketplace generally upbeat at mid-week.

For the moment, traders and investors are looking past the worrisome rise of the new Covid variant, which is threatening to slow the global economic recovery, especially in China.

Traders and investors at mid-week are focusing on the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report for July, due out shortly, which is seen coming in at up 0.5% from July versus a rise of 0.9% in June. Year-on-year, the CPI is seen up 5.3%.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer and hitting a 4.5-month high overnight. Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower and trading around $67.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.369%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, real earnings, the monthly Treasury budget statement and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract and record high Tuesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,438.25 and then at 4,465.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,365.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid chart advantage. Prices last week hit a contract and record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 15,172.50 and then at 15,250.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,976.25 and then at the August low of 14,849.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. A three-month-old price uptrend on the daily chart is in serious jeopardy. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 163 28/32 and then at this week’s high of 164 18/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 162 17/32 and then at 162 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. A three-month-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart is in serious jeopardy. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 133.27.5 and then at this week’s high of 134.06.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.09.5 and then at 133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower and hit another nine-month low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1777 and then at 1.1800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1700 and then at 1.1650. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are still in serious technical trouble. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $68.90 and then at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $66.56 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. Trading has turned choppy. The wheat market bulls are in firm technical control, corn bulls have the slight chart advantage and the soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Traders are awaiting Thursday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report, arguably the most important grain market report of the month.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Fed speak in focus Tuesday

August 10, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, August 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed mixed to weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Markets are quieter Tuesday morning, amid the summertime doldrums, when much of Europe is on holiday and many North American traders and investors are taking family vacations. Traders will be closely parsing speeches by a couple of Federal Reserve officials today, Loretta Mester and Charles Evans, looking for clues on the timing and direction of U.S. monetary policy—especially after last Friday’s much-stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report. Separately, reports this week say the Biden Administration generally supports appointing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to a second term.

Germany’s close watched ZEW consumer sentiment survey showed a drop for the third straight month, and to the lowest level since last November, as a rise in Covid infection rates raises concerns over a possible tightening of pandemic curbs. The ZEW economic expectations index fell to 40.4 in August from 63.3 in July, with the institute’s president warning of “increasing risks” to the German economy. The index of current conditions improved to 29.3 in August from 21.9 in July.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer and hitting a three-week high overnight. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher on a corrective bounce from recent strong selling pressure and trading around $67.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.316%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store sales reports, the NFIB small business index, and preliminary productivity and costs.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,433.25 and then at 4,450.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,365.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Prices last week hit a contract and record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 15,172.50 and then at 15,250.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 15,003.25 and then at 14,900.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a two-week low overnight. A three-month-old price uptrend on the daily chart is in jeopardy. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 164 18/32 and then at 165 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 163 10/32 and then at 163 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit a nearly three-week low overnight. A three-month-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart is in jeopardy. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 134.00.0 and then at 134.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.19.0 and then at 133.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are lower and hit a nine-month low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.1777 and then at 1.1800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1723 and then at 1.1700. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering. Bulls are still in serious technical trouble. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $69.00 and then at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at overnight low of $66.56 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. Trading has turned choppy. The wheat market bulls are in firm technical control, corn bulls have the slight chart advantage and the soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Traders are awaiting Thursday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report, arguably the most important grain market report of the month.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Crude oil on verge of price downtrend

August 9, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

The Nymex crude oil futures market is starting the trading week under strong selling pressure and the bulls are on the ropes. A close in prices below key chart support at $65.00 would give the bears more power by starting a price downtrend on the daily bar chart. It also now appears a market top is in place. Stay tuned!

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

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Disclaimer

There is a risk of financial loss in futures and options trading. Futures trading is neither easy nor an easy way to make money. It takes hard work to have success. Please use sound money management when trading futures. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing on this website is intended to be a trading recommendation to buy or sell futures or options. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Readers are solely responsible for how they use the information on this website.

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