Daily Morning Report

Thursday, June 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly down overnight following the surprisingly hawkish FOMC meeting results from the Federal Reserve Wednesday afternoon that roiled many markets, including equities. The Fed left U.S. monetary policy unchanged, as expected. However, more FOMC members are now leaning toward raising interest rates sooner than they reckoned earlier this year due to a stronger-rebounding U.S. economy, the receding pandemic and inflation worries. On the inflation front, the Fed said prices are rising but still not at a problematic rate. The Fed sees inflation in 2021 at 3.4% annually, up a full 1% from the 2.4% estimate forecast earlier this year. Recent U.S. inflation reports are running significantly hotter than the 3.4% annual Fed projection on inflation. At Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference, he did not assuage inflation worries, ostensibly saying the Fed really does not know how much or for how long inflationary pressures will be on the rise. Gold prices tanked to a five-week low, the U.S. dollar index rallied sharply and hit a two-month high and bond and note yields up-ticked. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is fetching 1.56% Thursday morning, after trading below 1.5% earlier this week.

Meantime, Brazil’s central bank raised its benchmark interest rate for the third consecutive time to thwart accelerating inflation. The rate was increased by 75 basis points, to 4.25%. The central bank is planning another 75 basis point rise at its next meeting in August. Meantime, inflation in Brazil rose to 8.1% in May, which is more than double this year’s goal of 3.75%.

The other key outside market today sees Nymex crude oil prices are down a bit and trading around $71.80 a barrel after hitting a 2.5-year high of $72.99 Wednesday.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, and leading economic indicators.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on profit taking, and not far below Tuesday’s record and contract high. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 4,241.50 and then at the contract high of 4,258.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,183.00 and then at 4,160.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on mild profit taking, and not far below the record high hit on Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 14,000.00 and then at the record high of 14,155.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,830.25 and then at 13,750.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 159 even and then at this week’s high of 159 14/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 157 12/32 and then at 157 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and hit a four-week low overnight. A price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 132.00.0 and then at 132.10.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.14.0 and then at 131.06.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are solidly lower and hit a two-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.2000 and then at the overnight high of 1.2026. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1946 and then at 1.1900. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading on mild profit taking after hitting a 2.5-year high on Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $72.29 and then at this week’s high of $72.99. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $71.33 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are sharply lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls are fading fast to suggest major market tops might be in place. The extended weather forecasts are calling for a bit more rain in the U.S. Midwest next week, but nothing that would be considered a “drought-buster.” The strong rebound in the U.S. dollar index this week is bearish for the grains, making U.S. grains more expensive on the world market. It’s still early in the growing season and don’t be surprised to see more fireworks in the grain futures in the coming weeks—on the upside and downside.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, June 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

European stock markets were mostly flat overnight, with Asian shares a bit weaker. The marketplace is awaiting the conclusion of the Fed’s FOMC meeting this afternoon. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Record highs have been scored this week in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock index futures. The past several weeks have seen little risk aversion in the marketplace and that’s bullish for the global stock markets.  

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting that began Tuesday morning ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and new economic projections. While no major changes are expected for U.S. monetary policy, focus will be on the Fed’s tenor on inflation prospects and when the central bank will start to taper its very easy money policies. Fed officials recently have hinted they will begin discussing a timetable for reducing its bond-buying program (quantitative easing) sooner rather than later.

Reports at mid-week say China is set to try to control inflated raw commodity prices. The government will intervene after copper, iron ore and coal prices rose to record highs recently. The state-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (Sasac) ordered China’s businesses to control risks and limit their exposure to overseas commodity markets. Companies have been ordered to report their futures positions for Sasac. China also said its National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration will soon release stockpiles of metals including copper, aluminum and zinc. The metals will reportedly be sold directly to manufacturers. Copper futures prices have sold off sharply on the news.

China’s industrial output was reported up 8.8% in May, year-on-year, which was in line with market expectations.

In other overnight news, consumer prices in the U.K. rose 2.1% in in May, year-on-year–the highest level since July of 2019. The hot inflation number increased speculation about the timing of Bank of England tightening of its monetary policy.

Israeli warplanes carried out a series of strikes at Hamas militant sites in the Gaza Strip Wednesday, the first raids since a cease-fire ended the war with Hamas in May.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are also near steady and trading around $72.20 a barrel after hitting another 2.5-year high of $72.83 overnight. The key U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is fetching 1.49%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential construction, import and export prices, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen testifies to the Senate today on the Biden administration’s fiscal year 2022 budget.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and near Tuesday’s record and contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are  bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,258.25 and then at 4,275.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,224.50 and then at last week’s low of 4,197.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher and not far below the record high hit on Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 14,155.25 and then at 14,250.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,000.00 and then at 13,900.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 159 14/32 and then at last week’s high of 159 29/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 158 9/32 and then at 158 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 132.29.5 and then at last week’s high of 133.06.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 132.12.0 and then at 132.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.2169 and then at 1.2200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.2114 and then at 1.2081. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading and hit another 2.5-year high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $72.83 and then at $73.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls are fading and need to step up yet this week. If not, major market tops could be in place. The extended weather forecasts are calling for a bit more rain in the U.S. Midwest next week, but nothing that would be considered a “drought-buster.” It’s still early in the growing season and don’t be surprised to see more fireworks in the grain futures in the coming weeks—on the upside and downside.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, June 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins and at record highs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock index futures. The past several weeks have seen little risk aversion in the marketplace and that’s been bullish for the global stock markets.  

Traders will be eyeing today’s U.S. retail sales report for May, expected to come in at down 0.6% from April. The May producer price index is another important data point out on a very busy report day today, and is expected to come in at up 0.5% from April.

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. While no major changes are expected for U.S. monetary policy, focus will be on the Fed’s tenor on inflation prospects and when the central bank will start to taper its very easy money policies. Fed officials recently have hinted they will begin discussing a timetable for reducing its bond-buying program (quantitative easing) sooner rather than later.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $71.50 a barrel after hitting a 2.5-year high of $71.78 Monday. The key U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is fetching 1.485%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly chain store sales index and the Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the Empire State manufacturing survey, retail sales, the producer price index, industrial production and capacity utilization, manufacturing and trade inventories, the NAHB housing market index, and Treasury international capital data.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit another record and contract high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are  bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight contract high of 4,258.25 and then at 4,275.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,224.50 and then at last week’s low of 4,197.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit a record high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight record high of 14,155.25 and then at 14,250.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at  14,000.00 and then at 13,900.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 159 14/32 and then at last week’s high of 159 29/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 158 16/32 and then at 158 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 132.29.5 and then at last week’s high of 133.06.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 132.12.0 and then at 132.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2169 and then at 1.2200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.2114 and then at 1.2081. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below Monday’s 2.5-year high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $71.78 and then at $72.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $70.65 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls are fading fast and need to step up this week. The extended weather forecasts are still not calling for a whole lot of rain in the U.S. Midwest. However, next week’s weather is expected to be cooler with some better chances for rain. It’s still early in the growing season and don’t be surprised to see more fireworks in the grain futures in the coming weeks.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, June 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins and at or near record highs. Chinese and Australian markets were closed for holidays. The global marketplace remains quieter at present, amid no major geopolitical flareups in play.

The just-completed Group of Seven industrial countries meeting in the U.K. did not produce any news that significantly moved markets. A main focus of the meeting was how the group could engage China in a way that is non-confrontational.

The U.S. data point of the week is the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. While no major changes are expected for U.S. monetary policy, focus will be on the Fed’s tenor on inflation prospects and when the central bank will start to taper its very easy money policies. Fed officials recently have hinted they will begin discussing a timetable for reducing its bond-buying program (quantitative easing) sooner rather than later.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $71.50 a barrel after hitting a 2.5-year high of $71.70 overnight. The key U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is fetching 1.464%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit another record and contract high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are  bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight contract high of 4,247.50 and then at 4,275.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,197.25 and then at 4,180.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit a seven-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 14,050.00 and then at 14,150.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 13,924.00 and then at 13,800.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 159 29/32 and then at 160 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 159 even and then at 158 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 133.00.0 and then at last week’s high of 133.06.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 132.20.0 and then at 132.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.2150 and then at 1.2200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.2114 and then at 1.2081. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit another 2.5-year high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $71.70 and then at $72.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $70.65 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are solidly lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. The extended weather forecasts are still not calling for much rain in the U.S. Midwest. However, it could be that market price action may have factored in that expected dry weather. Still, expect higher daily volatility in the grain futures markets in the near term.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff