Daily Morning Report

Friday, June 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins and are at or near their record highs. There remains little risk aversion in the global marketplace at present, amid a generally calm geopolitical environment. U.S. traders and investors are more upbeat Friday as President Biden on Thursday announced a bi-partisan infrastructure spending plan. However, the plan still faces hurdles before it becomes law.

On tap today in the U.S. is the personal income and outlays report for May, which is seen down 2.7% from April. The PCE price indexes will be closely watched for their inflation implications, as it’s been said the Federal Reserve very closely follows those indexes. The PCE core price index is expected to come in up 3.4%, year-on-year versus a reading of up 3.1% in April.

Reports say Russia is considering levying $2.3 billion in export taxes for steel products, nickel, aluminum and copper. Russia is looking to protect its defense and construction industries from rising international commodity prices. Some analysts said the impact of the extra taxes may be to raise international metals prices still higher.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil futures are a bit weaker and trading around $73.15 a barrel after hitting a 2.5-year high of $74.25 on Wednesday. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.49%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are up in early U.S. trading and hit another contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,264.25 and then at 4,285.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,231.75 and then at Tuesday’s low of 4,205.75. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and not far below Thursday’s contract and record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 14,422.00 and then at 14,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,300.00 and then at 14,200.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 160 12/32 and then at 161 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 159 8/32 and then at 159 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 132.09.0 and then at 132.15.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 132.00.0 and then at 131.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1990 and then at 1.2026. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1900 and then at last week’s low of 1.1867. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-year high of $74.25 Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $73.63 and then at $74.25. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mostly firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Not much new. The weather in the U.S. Corn Belt has been cooler and wetter and more of the same in the two-week extended forecast. That’s bearish. Recent price action suggests major market tops are in place. Still, the historically hotter and drier months of July and August lie just ahead and those two months are also arguably the most important for the corn and soybean crops. Look for more volatility in the grains in the next couple weeks, but right now the bears have momentum on their side and the bulls are on the ropes.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, June 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins and are at or near their record highs. There remains little risk aversion in the global marketplace at present, amid a generally calm geopolitical environment.

Today’s Bank of England meeting on its monetary policy saw no changes. However, the rise of U.K. inflation above the BOE’s target has increased speculation about the timing of future tightening.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he would be in favor of lifting U.S. interest rates in 2022 and that tapering could happen in the next few months.

Broker SP Angel said this morning in an email dispatch, regarding a 30-year super-cycle in commodity markets: “There is much debate about the nature of the bull run in commodities that we are in at present. Historically strong growth cycles are driven by seismic changes to global consumption and generally last more than just a couple of years. The driver for today’s growth in commodity demand started in China in 1992 when President Jiang Zemin introduced the term ‘socialist market economy’ following Deng Xiaoping’s urge to accelerate ‘opening up and reform’. The move ended China’s long-run economic stagnation and isolation with economic growth of 9.5% annually estimated from 1978 to 2013, albeit off a very low base. Global demand for commodities is partly driven by the emergence of China driven by ongoing demand growth in the West, particularly the U.S. A new phase of growth for metals for EVs, wind farms, batteries is also upon us. U.S. stimulus to counteract and keep pace with the emergence of China as a new superpower is also driving demand for most metals.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil futures are a bit weaker and trading around $73.00 a barrel after hitting a 2.5-year high of $74.25 on Wednesday. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.489%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the third estimate of first-quarter GDP, durable goods orders and the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City manufacturing report. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to speak today.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are up in early U.S. trading and close to the recent record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,258.25 and then at 4,280.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 4,205.75 and then at 4,175.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit another contract and record high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 14,358.75 and then at 14,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,200.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 14,066.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 160 12/32 and then at 161 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Tuesday’s low of 159 8/32 and then at 159 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 132.15.0 and then at 132.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 132.00.0 and then at 131.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1990 and then at 1.2026. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 1.1900 and then at last week’s low of 1.1867. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-year high of $74.25 Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $73.61 and then at $74.25. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. The weather in the U.S. Corn Belt has been cooler and wetter and that’s bearish. Recent price action suggests major market tops are in place. Still, the historically hotter and drier months of July and August lie just ahead and those two months are also arguably the most important for the corn and soybean crops. Look for more volatility in the grains in the next couple weeks, but right now the bears have momentum on their side and the bulls are on the ropes. Due out today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, June 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were flat to narrowly mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins and are at or near their record highs. The marketplace at mid-week appears to be assuaged by comments made to U.S. lawmakers by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell this week that higher inflation is only transitory and that the Fed will not put the brakes on its easy money policies too soon.

In overnight news, the Euro zone’s composite purchasing managers index (PMI) flash number came in at 59.2 in June versus 57.1 in May, and also beat market expectations. The June composite PMI was the best number in 15 years. A reading above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil futures are higher and trading around $73.30 a barrel after hitting a 2.5-year high of $73.58. overnight. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.475%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the U.S. flash manufacturing and services PMIs, new residential sales, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and not far below the recent record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,258.25 and then at 4,280.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 4,205.75 and then at 4,175.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a contract and record high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 14,313.75 and then at 14,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,200.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 14,066.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 160 12/32 and then at 161 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Tuesday’s low of 159 8/32 and then at 159 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.15.0 and then at 132.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 132.00.0 and then at 131.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1972 and then at 1.2000. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 1.1900 and then at last week’s low of 1.1867. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a 2.5-year high of $73.58 overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $73.58 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. The weather in the U.S. Corn Belt has gotten cooler and wetter and that’s bearish. Recent price action suggests major market tops are in place. Still, the historically hotter and drier months of July and August lie just ahead. Look for more volatility in the grains in the next couple weeks, but right now the bears have momentum on their side and the bulls are on the ropes.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, June 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian shares mostly firmer and European shares mostly weaker. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins, after posting solid gains Monday.

The marketplace on Tuesday afternoon will closely scrutinize Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks to a House committee. Powell’s prepared text for today’s appearance on the coronavirus pandemic, released Monday afternoon, shows him reiterating the rise in inflation is transitory. Traders and investors will be watching the 2:00 p.m. EDT appearance for his replies to lawmakers’ questions. Powell is known to occasionally go “off-script” in his answers to questions.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil futures are weaker and trading around $72.65 a barrel after hitting a 2.5-year high of $73.36. overnight. Brent crude traded above $75.00 overnight amid signs global demand for energy continues to increase. Reports said Russia is considering proposing OPEC and its allies increase output at the next OPEC meeting on July 1, with the world oil market presently estimated to need an additional 3 million barrels a day to satisfy demand.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.502%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly chain store sales index and the weekly Johnson Redbook retail report, existing home sales and the Richmond Fed business survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,226.25 and then at the contract high of 4,258.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,200.00 and then at 4,175.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 14,126.75 and then at 14,250.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 13,983.75 and then at 13,900.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a four-month high Monday. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 161 even and then at 162 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 159 16/32 and then at 159 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 132.16.0 and then at 132.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 132.00.0 and then at 131.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.1942 and then at 1.2000. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.1867 and then at 1.1800. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-year high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $73.36 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. The weather in the U.S. Corn Belt has gotten cooler and wetter and that’s bearish. Recent price action suggests major market tops might be in place. Still, the historically hotter and drier months of July and August lie just ahead. Look for more fireworks in the grains in the next couple weeks, but right now the bears have momentum on their side.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, June 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The aftermath of the Fed’s FOMC meeting conclusion Wednesday afternoon, which produced a hawkish bent by the U.S. central bank, has very significantly altered the landscape of the marketplace. A look at markets’ price action the past 36 hours shows many of them had major, counter-trend moves that at the very least “wrong-footed” traders and investors and at worst made them become insolvent. Soybean oil futures, for example, had been trending solidly higher and last week hit a record high. Price action this week has seen that market careen sharply lower, including two days in a row of being “locked-limit-down,” meaning that those with bullish bets on the long side were trapped in the price downdraft and unable to exit their major losses. The lean hog futures market saw a similar scenario this week.

Bloomberg reports the U.S. Treasury yield curve has seen its biggest two-day tightening of spreads between shorter-term instruments and longer-term instruments since March of 2020, following the Wednesday FOMC meeting. The yield on the 30-year bond dropped to 2.07%, with investors pulling back their inflation bets after Fed officials signaled two rate hikes by the end of 2023. The marketplace apparently has taken heed to the Fed’s insistence that inflation will be only transitory. Consequently, the “reflation trade” has at least temporarily fizzled, as seen by Thursday’s major drubbing of most raw commodity futures markets.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady and hitting another two-month high overnight. Nymex crude oil futures are a bit lower and trading around 70.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is fetching 1.487%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on more mild profit taking, and still not far below Tuesday’s record and contract high. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 4,241.50 and then at the contract high of 4,258.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,183.00 and then at 4,160.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a record high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 14,204.75 and then at 14,300.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 13,830.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a nearly four-month high on Thursday. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 160 24/32 and then at 161 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 159 14/32 and then at 159 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.11.0 and then at 132.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.28.0 and then at 131.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are a bit weaker and hit a two-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1950 and then at 1.2000. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1905 and then at 1.1850. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading on mild profit taking after hitting a 2.5-year high on Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $71.12 and then at $72.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $69.77 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are sharply higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, on upside corrections from major losses posted Thursday. This week’s price action still suggests major market tops might be in place. The extended weather forecasts are calling more rain in the U.S. Midwest next week, but still nothing that would be considered a “drought-buster.” And the historically hotter and drier months of July and August lie just ahead. The strong rebound in the U.S. dollar index this week is bearish for the grains, making U.S. grains more expensive on the world market.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff