Daily Morning Report

Thursday, July 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings to start the third quarter when the New York day session begins. Lazy summertime trading continues in the world equity markets, amid no major geopolitical flare-ups and generally upbeat trader and investor attitudes. Traders and investors are so far not paying much attention to the delta strain of the Covid-19 virus that is becoming more problematic in Asian countries and other regions of the world.

In overnight news, the June Euro zone manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was reported at 63.4 compared to 63.1 in May. A reading above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector.

Meantime, the Euro zone jobless rate in May was 7.9% versus 8.1% in April.

Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s employment situation report for June from the Labor Department—arguably the most important U.S. economic data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to come in at up 700,000 compared to a rise of 559,000 in May. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.6% versus 5.8% in May.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher and hitting a 2.5-month high overnight. Nymex crude oil futures are higher and trading around $74.75 a barrel after hitting a 2.5-year high of $74.90 overnight. Energy traders are awaiting the conclusion of Thursday’s OPEC meeting. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.473%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending, and the global manufacturing PMI.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading and hit another contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,305.75 and then at 4,330.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,287.00 and then at 4,258.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and poked to another contract and record high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 14,606.25 and then at 14,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,400.00 and then at this week’s low of 14,333.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 160 12/32 and then at this week’s high of 160 31/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 160 even and then at 159 15/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.12.0 and then at this week’s high of 132.18.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday’s low of 132.06.0 and then at 132.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-month low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1900 and then at this week’s high of 1.1963. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1854 and then at 1.1800. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a 2.5-year high of $75.15. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $76.00 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $74.00 and then at the overnight low of $73.39. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher to solidly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, on good follow-through buying after Wednesday’s sharp to limit-up price gains. Grain market bulls are getting a double-barrel blast of generally bullish USDA reports out Wednesday and weather in the U.S. Corn Belt turning warmer and drier as July gets under way. High daily volatility in the grain futures markets is back.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, June 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Today is the last trading day of the month and of the quarter, which makes it an extra important trading day from a technical perspective.

The U.S. economic data point of the day is the ADP national employment report for June, which is seen coming in at up around 550,000 jobs. That report is a precursor to Friday morning’s employment situation report for June from the Labor Department—arguably the most important U.S. economic data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to come in at up 700,000 compared to a rise of 559,000 in May. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.6% versus 5.8% in May.

In overnight news, the Eurozone consumer price index for June came in at  up 1.9%, year-on-year, versus a rise of 2.0% in May.

Meantime, China’s official purchasing managers index fell to 50.9 in June from 51.0 in May. A reading above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil futures are higher and trading around $73.75 a barrel. Energy traders are awaiting Thursday’s OPEC meeting. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.465%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the Chicago ISM business survey, pending home sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading and not far below this week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,291.00 and then at 4,300.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,253.50 and then at 4,231.75. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading and poked to another contract and record high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 14,598.50 and then at 14,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,400.00 and then at this week’s low of 14,333.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 161 even and then at 161 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 160 even and then at Tuesday’s low of 159 15/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 132.16.0 and then at 132.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.06.0 and then at 132.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1963 and then at last week’s high of 1.1994. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1895 and then at the June low of 1.1867. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading and near this week’s 2.5-year high of $74.45. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $74.45 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $72.82 and then at this week’s low of $71.97. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mostly weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. The weather market in the grains may be reigniting as the calendar turns to July on Thursday and weather forecasts for the Midwest are mostly hot and dry. Trading may be quieter this morning ahead of the very important USDA acreage and stocks reports. Look for active trading after those reports come out at 12:00 noon EDT. Those reports typically cause high volatility in their immediate aftermath.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, June 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were narrowly mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins and are at or near their record highs. It appears the summertime doldrums have arrived early this year, as the marketplace is generally quiet, has set aside inflation and potential pandemic resurgence concerns, with many traders seemingly more interested in family outings and vacations as the Independence Day holiday approaches.

Still, many wonder if there will be a reckoning for the U.S. at some point down the road. A Wall Street Journal story this week is entitled, “Americans are buying, buoyed by savings and federal stimulus during the pandemic.” The first sentence of the story reads, “A gusher of money is spilling out from the U.S. economy and rippling around the world, driving the global recovery to an extent it hasn’t in decades and giving confidence to businesses to invest in meeting the huge American demand.” In Economics 101 we learned the saying, “there is no free lunch.” So many veteran market watchers are now asking the question, How and when will Americans pay the piper?” The answer may be problematic price inflation down the road.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil futures are weaker and trading around $72.50 a barrel after hitting a 2.5-year high of $74.45 Monday. Energy traders are awaiting Thursday’s OPEC meeting. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.482%.

Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s employment situation report for June from the Labor Department—arguably the most important U.S. economic data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to come in at up 700,000 compared to a rise of 559,000 in May. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.6% versus 5.8% in May.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail report and the chain store index, the monthly house price index, the S&P-Core-Logic house index, and the consumer confidence index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and poked to another contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,282.25 and then at 4,300.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,253.50 and then at 4,231.75. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below Monday’s contract and record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 14,519.75 and then at 14,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,400.00 and then at Monday’s low of 14,333.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 160 7/32 and then at 160 12/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 159 16/32 and then at 159 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 132.10.5 and then at 132.15.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 132.00.0 and then at last week’s low of 131.24.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.1963 and then at last week’s high of 1.1994. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1900 and then at the June low of 1.1867. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-year high of $74.45 on Monday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $73.04 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $71.97 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading, on a “Turnaround Tuesday” pullback after the solid gains posted Monday. The weather market in the grains has apparently not quite yet fizzled. The historically hotter and drier months of July and August lie just ahead and those two months are also arguably the most important for the corn and soybean crops. Trading may be quieter today ahead of Wednesday’s very important USDA acreage and stocks reports.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, June 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins and are at or near their record highs. There is still little risk aversion in subdued summertime trading. That’s allowing the stock indexes to continue to drift sideways to higher. The Wall Street Journal reported the U.S. stock market is seeing its quietest stretch of trading since 2017. Trading is likely to remain muted until Friday morning’s U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department, which is arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month.

The marketplace paid little attention to reports U.S. warplanes attacked Iran-backed militias near the Syria-Iraq border.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil futures are a bit weaker and trading around $74.00 a barrel after hitting a 2.5-year high of $74.45 overnight. Energy traders are awaiting Thursday’s OPEC meeting. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.517%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and poked to another contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,278.50 and then at 4,300.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 4,253.50 and then at 4,231.75. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s contract and record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 14,422.00 and then at 14,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,300.00 and then at 14,200.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 160 even and then at 160 12/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 158 18/32 and then at 158 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 132.08.5 and then at 132.15.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 131.24.5 and then at 131.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1994 and then at 1.2026. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1938 and then at 1.1900. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-year high of $74.45 overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $74.45 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.00 and then at $72.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Some short covering and perceived bargain hunting are featured after recent selling pressure. The weather market in the grains has fizzled, for now. Recent price action suggests major market tops are in place. Still, the historically hotter and drier months of July and August lie just ahead and those two months are also arguably the most important for the corn and soybean crops. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff