Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, June 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were narrowly mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins and are at or near their record highs. It appears the summertime doldrums have arrived early this year, as the marketplace is generally quiet, has set aside inflation and potential pandemic resurgence concerns, with many traders seemingly more interested in family outings and vacations as the Independence Day holiday approaches.

Still, many wonder if there will be a reckoning for the U.S. at some point down the road. A Wall Street Journal story this week is entitled, “Americans are buying, buoyed by savings and federal stimulus during the pandemic.” The first sentence of the story reads, “A gusher of money is spilling out from the U.S. economy and rippling around the world, driving the global recovery to an extent it hasn’t in decades and giving confidence to businesses to invest in meeting the huge American demand.” In Economics 101 we learned the saying, “there is no free lunch.” So many veteran market watchers are now asking the question, How and when will Americans pay the piper?” The answer may be problematic price inflation down the road.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil futures are weaker and trading around $72.50 a barrel after hitting a 2.5-year high of $74.45 Monday. Energy traders are awaiting Thursday’s OPEC meeting. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.482%.

Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s employment situation report for June from the Labor Department—arguably the most important U.S. economic data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to come in at up 700,000 compared to a rise of 559,000 in May. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.6% versus 5.8% in May.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail report and the chain store index, the monthly house price index, the S&P-Core-Logic house index, and the consumer confidence index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and poked to another contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,282.25 and then at 4,300.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,253.50 and then at 4,231.75. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below Monday’s contract and record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 14,519.75 and then at 14,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,400.00 and then at Monday’s low of 14,333.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 160 7/32 and then at 160 12/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 159 16/32 and then at 159 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 132.10.5 and then at 132.15.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 132.00.0 and then at last week’s low of 131.24.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.1963 and then at last week’s high of 1.1994. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1900 and then at the June low of 1.1867. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-year high of $74.45 on Monday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $73.04 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $71.97 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading, on a “Turnaround Tuesday” pullback after the solid gains posted Monday. The weather market in the grains has apparently not quite yet fizzled. The historically hotter and drier months of July and August lie just ahead and those two months are also arguably the most important for the corn and soybean crops. Trading may be quieter today ahead of Wednesday’s very important USDA acreage and stocks reports.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, June 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins and are at or near their record highs. There is still little risk aversion in subdued summertime trading. That’s allowing the stock indexes to continue to drift sideways to higher. The Wall Street Journal reported the U.S. stock market is seeing its quietest stretch of trading since 2017. Trading is likely to remain muted until Friday morning’s U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department, which is arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month.

The marketplace paid little attention to reports U.S. warplanes attacked Iran-backed militias near the Syria-Iraq border.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil futures are a bit weaker and trading around $74.00 a barrel after hitting a 2.5-year high of $74.45 overnight. Energy traders are awaiting Thursday’s OPEC meeting. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.517%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and poked to another contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,278.50 and then at 4,300.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 4,253.50 and then at 4,231.75. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s contract and record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 14,422.00 and then at 14,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,300.00 and then at 14,200.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 160 even and then at 160 12/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 158 18/32 and then at 158 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 132.08.5 and then at 132.15.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 131.24.5 and then at 131.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1994 and then at 1.2026. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1938 and then at 1.1900. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-year high of $74.45 overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $74.45 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.00 and then at $72.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Some short covering and perceived bargain hunting are featured after recent selling pressure. The weather market in the grains has fizzled, for now. Recent price action suggests major market tops are in place. Still, the historically hotter and drier months of July and August lie just ahead and those two months are also arguably the most important for the corn and soybean crops. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, June 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins and are at or near their record highs. There remains little risk aversion in the global marketplace at present, amid a generally calm geopolitical environment. U.S. traders and investors are more upbeat Friday as President Biden on Thursday announced a bi-partisan infrastructure spending plan. However, the plan still faces hurdles before it becomes law.

On tap today in the U.S. is the personal income and outlays report for May, which is seen down 2.7% from April. The PCE price indexes will be closely watched for their inflation implications, as it’s been said the Federal Reserve very closely follows those indexes. The PCE core price index is expected to come in up 3.4%, year-on-year versus a reading of up 3.1% in April.

Reports say Russia is considering levying $2.3 billion in export taxes for steel products, nickel, aluminum and copper. Russia is looking to protect its defense and construction industries from rising international commodity prices. Some analysts said the impact of the extra taxes may be to raise international metals prices still higher.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil futures are a bit weaker and trading around $73.15 a barrel after hitting a 2.5-year high of $74.25 on Wednesday. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.49%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are up in early U.S. trading and hit another contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,264.25 and then at 4,285.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,231.75 and then at Tuesday’s low of 4,205.75. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and not far below Thursday’s contract and record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 14,422.00 and then at 14,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,300.00 and then at 14,200.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 160 12/32 and then at 161 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 159 8/32 and then at 159 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 132.09.0 and then at 132.15.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 132.00.0 and then at 131.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1990 and then at 1.2026. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1900 and then at last week’s low of 1.1867. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-year high of $74.25 Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $73.63 and then at $74.25. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are mostly firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Not much new. The weather in the U.S. Corn Belt has been cooler and wetter and more of the same in the two-week extended forecast. That’s bearish. Recent price action suggests major market tops are in place. Still, the historically hotter and drier months of July and August lie just ahead and those two months are also arguably the most important for the corn and soybean crops. Look for more volatility in the grains in the next couple weeks, but right now the bears have momentum on their side and the bulls are on the ropes.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, June 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins and are at or near their record highs. There remains little risk aversion in the global marketplace at present, amid a generally calm geopolitical environment.

Today’s Bank of England meeting on its monetary policy saw no changes. However, the rise of U.K. inflation above the BOE’s target has increased speculation about the timing of future tightening.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he would be in favor of lifting U.S. interest rates in 2022 and that tapering could happen in the next few months.

Broker SP Angel said this morning in an email dispatch, regarding a 30-year super-cycle in commodity markets: “There is much debate about the nature of the bull run in commodities that we are in at present. Historically strong growth cycles are driven by seismic changes to global consumption and generally last more than just a couple of years. The driver for today’s growth in commodity demand started in China in 1992 when President Jiang Zemin introduced the term ‘socialist market economy’ following Deng Xiaoping’s urge to accelerate ‘opening up and reform’. The move ended China’s long-run economic stagnation and isolation with economic growth of 9.5% annually estimated from 1978 to 2013, albeit off a very low base. Global demand for commodities is partly driven by the emergence of China driven by ongoing demand growth in the West, particularly the U.S. A new phase of growth for metals for EVs, wind farms, batteries is also upon us. U.S. stimulus to counteract and keep pace with the emergence of China as a new superpower is also driving demand for most metals.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil futures are a bit weaker and trading around $73.00 a barrel after hitting a 2.5-year high of $74.25 on Wednesday. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.489%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the third estimate of first-quarter GDP, durable goods orders and the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City manufacturing report. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to speak today.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are up in early U.S. trading and close to the recent record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,258.25 and then at 4,280.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 4,205.75 and then at 4,175.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit another contract and record high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 14,358.75 and then at 14,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,200.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 14,066.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 160 12/32 and then at 161 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Tuesday’s low of 159 8/32 and then at 159 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 132.15.0 and then at 132.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 132.00.0 and then at 131.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The September Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1990 and then at 1.2026. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 1.1900 and then at last week’s low of 1.1867. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-year high of $74.25 Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $73.61 and then at $74.25. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

U.S. grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. The weather in the U.S. Corn Belt has been cooler and wetter and that’s bearish. Recent price action suggests major market tops are in place. Still, the historically hotter and drier months of July and August lie just ahead and those two months are also arguably the most important for the corn and soybean crops. Look for more volatility in the grains in the next couple weeks, but right now the bears have momentum on their side and the bulls are on the ropes. Due out today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff