Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, October 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian stocks were mostly higher overnight, while European shares were mostly lower. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.

Global stock markets are still a bit wobbly, what with geopolitical issues lingering not far from the front burner of the marketplace, and which could flare up at any time. These include U.S.-Iran tensions, Brexit, Hong Kong civil unrest and the Democrats working to impeach Trump.

As the U.S.-China trade talks get under way this week, the U.S. has just blacklisted 28 Chinese entities due to those firm purportedly repressing Muslims in China. Ideas are mixed on the outcome of this latest round of meetings between the world’s two largest economies. The Chinese may think they can leverage President Trump’s political problems in the U.S. to their advantage. However, Trump has “doubled-down” and said the U.S. will get a good and complete trade deal with China, or none at all.

In overnight news, a manufacturing report out of Germany was upbeat, finally, as industrial output in August was up 0.3% from July.

Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $52.50 a barrel today. The other key “outside market” sees the U.S. dollar index slightly down in early U.S. trading.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the producer price index, and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index. Several Federal Reserve officials speak today, including Fed Chairman Powell to the NABE annual meeting.

–Jim

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The gold market has backed down from the early-September high and a downtrend line is now in place. The safe-haven metal needs a fresh dose of geopolitical unease or stock market wobbles to help bulls break the price downtrend.–Jim

Asian stocks were mixed overnight. China’s markets were still closed for a holiday Monday. European stock markets were a down modestly following some more downbeat manufacturing data coming out of Germany. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

In focus Monday is the U.S.-China trade talks that restart this week in Washington, D.C. There is no consensus on whether this latest round of discussions will make any progress toward a trade agreement.

The World Gold Council said world central banks in August purchased 62.1 tons of gold and sold 4.8 tons. That’s way up from central banks buying a net total of 12.8 tons in July.

Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $53.00 a barrel today. The other key “outside market” sees the U.S. dollar index slightly up in early U.S. trading.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index and consumer credit.

–Jim

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Friday, October 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stocks were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are presently pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Mainland China markets were closed this week for a holiday. The wobbly U.S. stock market this week still has traders and investors nervous heading into the weekend.

Traders are awaiting Friday’s morning’s U.S. employment situation report for September from the Labor Department. Friday’s key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to be up 145,000 in September. A big miss from the consensus forecast would likely produce some volatile markets action in the immediate aftermath of the report. It would take a significantly stronger-than-expected jobs report today to sway traders and investors away from the general notion that another U.S. interest rate cut is coming from the Federal Reserve soon, following this week’s very poor U.S. and European manufacturing reports.

Reports overnight said Hong Kong authorities have banned people from wearing masks in public, following recent violent protesting there. This new rule could further escalate the civil unrest in Hong Kong. This situation could quickly move to the front burner of the marketplace, especially if mainland China gets more deeply involved in the matter.

The U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S. trading. The USDX hit a contract and two-year high earlier this week. Look for the greenback to continue to appreciate for at least the near term. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $52.70 a barrel. Oil prices are in a steep slide from the spike high scored in September.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the international trade report. Several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak today, including Chairman Jerome Powell.

–Jim

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The U.S. Treasury bond and note markets have seen solid price rebounds from their September lows, mostly on safe-haven demand amid worries about slowing global economic growth and trade. See the December T-Bond prices are trending higher again. Look for more gains in bond and note prices in the near term–and possibly sharp gains if the world stock markets remain wobbly during what can be the turbulent month of October for equities markets.–Jim

Thursday, October 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stocks were near steady to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. China markets are closed this week for a holiday.

There are still global economic growth and trade worries hanging over the world marketplace after some dour manufacturing data coming out of the U.S. and European Union earlier this week. There will be a batch of manufacturing reports coming out of the U.S. Thursday that will be very closely scrutinized as U.S. economic recession worries have resurfaced.

A World Trade Organization trade-dispute decision in favor of the U.S. over the European Union on aircraft has rattled European markets, as the U.S. then announced late Wednesday it will levy new import tariffs on EU products coming into the U.S.

In another sign of very low and even worrisomely low inflation in most of the world’s major economies, the Euro zone today reported its August producer price index down 0.5% from July and down 0.8%, year-on-year.

Traders are also awaiting Friday’s morning’s employment situation report for September from the U.S. Labor Department. Friday’s key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to be up 145,000 in September.

The U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading. The USDX hit a contract and two-year high earlier this week. Look for the greenback to continue to appreciate for at least the near term. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading around $52.50 a barrel. Oil prices are in a steep slide from the spike high scored in September.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the U.S. services PMI, the global services PMI, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, and the non-ISM manufacturing report on business.

–Jim

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