Daily Morning Report

Thursday, May 23–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and new record highs when the New York day session begins. Strong quarterly earnings from Nvidia and reports of a News Corp. deal with OpenAI are fueling gains in the stock market today.

The marketplace has quickly digested Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC minutes from the last meeting. The minutes leaned just a bit more hawkish than the marketplace expected. While the markets expected a “higher for longer” U.S. interest rate theme from the minutes, what the markets did not expect was that several FOMC members indicated they were willing to raise interest rates should inflation risks accelerate. The U.S. stock indexes saw selling pressure after the minutes were released and U.S. Treasury yields up-ticked a bit.

In overnight news, the Eurozone got some upbeat manufacturing and services purchasing managers indexes (PMI)for April, as both beat market expectations. However, the manufacturing PMI reading was 47.4, which is still well below the 50.0 reading that suggests the sector is still in contraction.

A Barrons story today has a headline that reads: “Commodities are hot….” The story says “Commodities are having their moment. Gold and copper have hit historic highs while agriculture is knocking on the door to join the party.” The story continues, saying “bottom line, the commodity bull market is alive and well and has more upside.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $78.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.43%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Chicago Fed national activity index, the U.S. flash manufacturing and services purchasing managers indexes (PMIs), new residential sales and the Kansas City Fed business survey.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit a contract and record high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,375.00 and then at 5,400.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 5,334.00 and then at this week’s low of 5,306.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly up in early U.S. trading and hit another contract and record high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 19,000.00 and then at 19,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 18,843.25 and then at this week’s low of 18,633.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 117 19/32 and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 116 24/32 and then at 116 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 109.10.5 and then at 109.18.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 108.28.5 and then at 108.20.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.0876 and then at the May high of 1.0909. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0823 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of $79.72 and then at this week’s high of $80.60. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the May low of $76.70 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Corn has seen its price uptrend stall out. HRW and SRW wheat, soybeans and soybean meal are still trending higher on the daily bar charts. Weather in the U.S. grain regions is presently leaning slightly bullish.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, May 22–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are not far below their recent record highs. However, a Barrons.com story today is headlined: The market’s fear gauge is signaling trouble.” The story said the CBOE’s VIX index, which measures implied volatility, is very low at present, suggesting low fear in the marketplace. The story said “investors get greedy” during a low VIX. “History suggests something’s has to give.”

The U.S. data point of the day Wednesday, if not the week, is the afternoon release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve.

Gold prices are hovering not far below this week’s record high of $2,454.20, basis June Comex futures. A Wall Street Journal report today said gold’s rally the past several months has been mostly due to buying buy central banks and especially China. The Journal said central banks of the world are starting to diversify more away from U.S. dollar-based assets that can be more easily sanctioned. The report said U.S. economic sanctions on Russia, following its invasion of Ukraine, that have helped to crimp Russia’s economy, were sort of a wake-up call for countries like China, which could also be sanctioned by the U.S. The Journal report is headlined: “Gold’s latest allure? It’s sanctions proof.”

Another WSJ story this week is titled: “China tightens minerals grip as West fails to make headway.” The story highlights China’s stockpiling of minerals like nickel, lithium and cobalt that are critical for defense and green technology. Western countries are falling behind China is securing these minerals, said the WSJ.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are modestly down and trading around $78.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.44%.  

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, existing home sales, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading and not far below the contract and record high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 5,349.00 and then at 5,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,300.00 and then at 5,266.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit a contract and record high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,900.00 and then at 19,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 18,633.00 and then at 18,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 117 19/32 and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 116 25/32 and then at 116 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 109.10.5 and then at 109.18.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 108.24.0 and then at 108.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0876 and then at the May high of 1.0909. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of $79.72 and then at this week’s high of $80.60. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $77.35 and then at the May low of $76.70. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight. Corn has seen its price uptrend stall out, which is worrisome for all the grain markets, since “Corn is King.” HRW and SRW wheat, soybeans and soybean meal are still trending higher on the daily bar charts. Weather in the U.S. grain regions is presently leaning slightly bullish.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, May 20–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins and are not far below last week’s record highs.

Risk aversion is a bit keener to start the trading week. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, the country’s foreign minister, and others were killed in a helicopter crash Monday. The crash was in a foggy, mountainous region of the country’s northwest, state media reported. It appears the helicopter had mechanical problems and that it was not shot down. Meantime, a Chinese oil tanker was hit by a Houthi missile in the Red Sea, adding to geopolitical tensions.

Gold prices hit a new record high overnight, at $2,454.20 an ounce, basis June Comex futures. Reports say Chinese speculators are snapping up gold at a torrid pace and that bullion from the West is moving to China to satisfy the strong demand. It could be that Chinese investors have soured on China’s economic prospects and China financial markets, including the unsteady yuan Chinese currency, and are purchasing safe-haven gold and silver. Chinese real estate investment dropped 9.8%, year-on-year, from January to April. Broker SP Angel this morning said “China is struggling to contain the impact of the collapse of two major property developers which have left thousands of unfinished properties in limbo. To compound the problem, many of these apartments have been sold with buyers supporting mortgages on properties they are not able to move into.”

Western speculators are also buying gold, silver and other commodity futures markets amid ideas the major central banks of the world will be able to ease their monetary policies in the coming months, which would spark better global economic growth that would then spur more demand for raw commodities.

Silver prices hit an 11-year high overnight, at $32.75 an ounce, basis July Comex futures. Comex copper futures hit a record high of $5.1990 a pound overnight, basis the July contract.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $79.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.42%.  

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s contract and record high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 5,349.00 and then at 5,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,266.25 and then at last week’s low of 5,216.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s contract and record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 18,760.75 and then at 18,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,500.00 and then at 18,393.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 118 2/32 and then at the May high of 118 23/32. Shorter-term support lies at 117 even and then at 116 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 109.18.5 and then at the May high of 109.31.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 109.00.0 and then at 108.24.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the May high of 1.0909 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at last Friday’s low of 1.0849 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $80.39 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at the May low of $76.70. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, soybeans and soybean meal are all trending higher on the daily bar charts. On tap today is the weekly USDX export inspections report and the weekly USDA crop progress reports.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, May 17–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins, after setting record highs on Thursday.

In overnight news, the Euro zone April consumer price index was reported up 2.4%, year-on-year, which was right in line with market expectations.

China’s government has announced measures to bolster is listing property sector, including a 300 billion yuan relending facility for affordable housing. China property stocks rallied sharply on the news. China also got some upbeat economic news today, as its April industrial output was up 6.7%, year-on-year, which was better than market expectations.

Comex copper futures prices this week hit a record high above $5.00 a pound. There continues to be talk in the metals industry of a big “short squeeze” in Comex copper futures. The respected broker SP Angel said this morning in an email dispatch: “China’s CMOC, which owns the IXM trading group, filed a report to the Shanghai Stock Exchange Thursday stating its positions were ‘completely controllable’ and its trades were ‘100% hedged to reduce price risks.’ Reuters reported on Wednesday that IXM and Trafigura were sourcing physical copper to deliver into CME to cover short positions. The positions reflect expectations that current copper prices have moved ahead of current demand requirements, with China buying muted. Supply disruptions have limited concentrate availability, seeing smelters rush to secure available feedstock to keep their operations running, with some operating at a loss. Traders expect redirected shipments into the U.S. to take some pressure of current prices, although this could take up to two weeks. Trading volumes in base metals have seen huge spikes this week, with LME contracts hitting all-time highs in liquidity terms. Speculators are wagering on base metals alongside hopes of lower interest rate environments and improved PMI data. Russian sanctions have also fueled concerns over metal shortages. Copper hedge fund positioning is reaching the highest levels since January 2018. Shanghai speculators are also taking part, with futures trading volumes setting record highs in April.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $79.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.38%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes leading economic indicators.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and not far below Thursday’s contract and record high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 5,349.00 and then at 5,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 5,266.25 and then at this week’s low of 5,216.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are just a bit firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract and record high Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 18,760.75 and then at 18,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,500.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of 18,393.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 118 2/32 and then at this week’s high of 118 23/32. Shorter-term support lies at 117 even and then at 116 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 109.18.5 and then at this week’s high of 109.31.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 109.00.0 and then at 108.24.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0882 and then at this week’s high of 1.0909. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 1.0828 and then at this week’s low of 1.0780. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are just a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at this week’s low of $76.70. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, soybeans and soybean meal are all trending higher on the daily bar charts. It appears the speculators are wanting to play the long sides of the grains, including the big “fund” traders.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff