Daily Morning Report

Friday, January 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Selling pressure in the stock markets is being mitigated by news that President-Elect Biden will implement a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan for Americans hit by the pandemic that includes bigger stimulus payments. However, the marketplace also realizes that higher personal and corporate taxes are very likely under the Biden administration. That and lingering uncertainty ahead of the U.S. change of presidential power next week is keeping the marketplace tentative.

A feature in the markets on Thursday was Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech and question-and-answer session at Princeton University. Powell said he expects a strong U.S. economic recovery beginning later in 2021, and added that inflation levels could rise. The “inflation trade” has been in the spotlight early this year, as evidenced by rallying commodity markets like the grains, crude oil, copper and others.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower and are trading around $52.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note stands at 1.107%.

It’s a busy day for U.S. economic data releases Friday, including the Empire State manufacturing survey, retail sales, the producer price index, industrial production and capacity utilization and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s record high. Some routine profit taking is featured. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A near-term price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,800.00 and then at the record high of 3,824.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,765.25 and then at 3,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,928.00 and then at 13,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,830.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,767.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 169 22/32 and then at 170 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 168 3/32 and then at the contract low of 167 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 136.28.0 and then at 137.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 136.16.5 and then at 136.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded recently. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2178 and then at this week’s high of 1.2239. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.2125 and then at 1.2100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading on profit taking after hitting a 10-month high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $53.93 and then at $54.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $52.00 and then at $51.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. The grain markets bulls still have the strong overall near-term technical advantage and are showing resilience. The grain futures are in major bull runs that could see still-higher prices, as speculators continue to show interest on the long side of the markets. However, expect much higher daily price volatility in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, January 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is tentative late this week following the U.S. House of Representatives impeachment of President Trump for an unprecedented second time. Trump has less than one week left in his term as president. The marketplace remains a bit edgy ahead of the inauguration of Joe Biden as the next U.S. president next Wednesday, as a massive show of U.S. national guard and other security forces are already in Washington, D.C.

Reports say that today President-Elect Biden will announce an up to $2 trillion stimulus plan for Americans hit by the pandemic. This news did limit selling interest in the global stock markets overnight and U.S. Treasury bond yields did tick up a bit.

Traders will be watching Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at Princeton University at midday today. Several other Fed officials also are slated to speak Thursday.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly lower and are trading around $52.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note stands at 1.114%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, import and export prices.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and very close to last week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A near-term price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 3,824.50 and then at 3,850.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,768.00 and then at 3,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,015.00 and then at the record high of 13,125.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,850.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,767.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and not far above Tuesday’s contract low. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 169 22/32 and then at 170 even. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 168 8/32 and then at the contract low of 167 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and not far above the contract low scored Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 136.28.0 and then at 137.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday’s low of 136.12.0 and then at the contract low of 136.01.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded a bit recently. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.2239 and then at 1.2280. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.2148 and then at 1.2100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading on mild profit taking after hitting a 10-month high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $53.93 and then at $54.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $52.00 and then at $51.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading as the exhausted bulls are pausing. The grain markets bulls still have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The grain futures are in major bull runs that could see still-higher prices, but one thing is guaranteed: much higher price volatility in the near term. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, January 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Focus today is on the U.S. House of Representatives that is set to impeach President Trump for an unprecedented second time. Trump has one week left in his term as president. The marketplace remains a bit anxious ahead of the inauguration of Joe Biden as the next president, amid extremists’ threats of violence across the U.S.

The U.S. data point of the day at mid-week is the consumer price index for December, seen coming in at up 0.4% from November and compares to a rise of 0.2% for November. Year-on-year the December CPI is seen up 1.3% versus up 1.2% in November. These numbers are not at all problematic for inflation, despite recent talk of rising and even problematic inflation in the coming months.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly higher, hit another 10-month high overnight, and are trading around $53.40 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note stands at 1.126%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the consumer price index, real earnings, the Federal Reserve’s beige book, the monthly Treasury budget statement and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A near-term price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 3,824.50 and then at 3,850.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 3,768.00 and then at 3,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,000.00 and then at the record high of 13,125.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 12,767.25 and then at 12,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far above Tuesday’s contract low. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 168 31/32 and then at 169 even. Shorter-term support lies at 168 even and then at the contract low of 167 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far above the contract low scored Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 136.19.5 and then at this week’s high of 136.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 136.09.5 and then at the contract low of 136.01.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded a bit. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2239 and then at 1.2280. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.2148 and then at 1.2100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a 10-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $53.93 and then at $54.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $53.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of $52.07. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are higher to sharply higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. The grain markets bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage and have gained more power after Tuesday’s surprisingly bullish USDA reports that sent corn, soybeans and wheat prices rocketing higher to six-plus year highs. The grain futures are in major bull runs that could see still-higher prices, but one thing is guaranteed: much higher price volatility in the near term.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, January 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are weighing the positives of the likely end to the surge of the Covid-19 pandemic by springtime and vaccinations shifting into high gear, as well as big U.S. government spending programs being implemented by the Democrat-controlled Congress, against the uncertainties that lie just ahead: a possible Trump impeachment, potential civil unrest in the U.S. in the next couple weeks, and the pandemic in the U.S. and other nations still being at or close to its deadliest.

A feature in the marketplace just recently has been rising U.S. Treasury yields. Read that rising interest rates. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield is currently fetching 1.16%. For more than a decade Americans have not had to worry about high interest rates. Make no mistake, U.S. bond yields at present are nowhere near worrisomely high levels that might suggest high inflation. However, it’s the trajectory of the yields that is raising eyebrows and merits continued close observation. High inflation is usually the enemy of the stock markets and the friend of commodity markets.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher, hit a 10-month high overnight, and are trading around $53.00 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the NFIB small business index, USDA supply and demand reports, and the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A near-term price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 3,824.50 and then at 3,850.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 3,776.50 and then at 3,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 13,125.00 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 12,871.75 and then at 12,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and hit another contract low overnight. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 168 31/32 and then at 169 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 167 26/32 and then at 167 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 136.12.5 and then at Monday’s high of 136.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 136.05.5 and then at 136.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2196 and then at Monday’s high of 1.2235. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.2148 and then at 1.2100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a 10-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $53.26 and then at $54.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $52.07 and then at $51.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. The grain markets bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily charts. On tap today is arguably the most important data point of the month for the grain markets: the monthly USDA supply and demand reports and quarterly data, too. Most of the data is expected to favor the bullish camps.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff