Jim Wyckoff

Dominate Your Market

Daily Morning Report

Risk appetite recedes a bit Tuesday

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Tuesday, May 7–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls have regained some upside momentum the past few sessions.

Risk appetite has receded a bit Tuesday after Israel said it had taken control of part of the southern city of Rafah in the Gaza strip near the Egyptian border. The stepped-up Israeli military operations in Gaza come as there had been better hopes a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas might be imminent.

In overnight news, Australia’s central bank left its monetary policy unchanged at its regular meeting. The RBA said that while inflation is easing, it’s easing more slowly than expected and it will be some time before inflation is in the RBA’s target zone.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $78.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.465%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the RCM/TIPP economic optimism index and consumer credit.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading but hit a three-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,230.00 and then at 5,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 5,155.75 and then at 5,125.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,300.00 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 17,983.75 and then at 17,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 117 even and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 115 23/32 and then at 115 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 109.09.5 and then at 109.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Monday’s low of 108.23.0 and then at 108.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0832 and then at 1.0880. Shorter-term support is seen at last Friday’s low of 1.0744 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $77.91 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight, on routine corrective pullbacks from recent good gains. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, soybeans and soybean meal are all trending higher on the daily bar charts. Seasonal price tendencies are presently favoring the grain market bulls.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Risk appetite upbeat at present

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Monday, May 6–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite in the general marketplace has up-ticked the past couple weeks as geopolitical tensions have not escalated and following last Friday’s “Goldilocks” U.S. jobs report that was not too hot and not too cold.

In overnight news, the Euro zone producer price index for March was down 0.4% from February and down 7.8%, year-on-year.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $79.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.479%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index and the global services purchasing managers index (PMI).

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a three-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,200.00 and then at 5,225.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,150.00 and then at 5,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,100.00 and then at 18,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,900.00 and then at 17,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 116 18/32 and then at 117 even. Shorter-term support lies at 115 even and then at 114 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 109.09.5 and then at 109.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 108.23.0 and then at 108.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0832 and then at 1.0880. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 1.0744 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a six-week low Friday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $77.96 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, and soybean meal are trending higher on the daily bar charts. Seasonal price tendencies are presently favoring the grain market bulls.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Dreaded stagflation returning?

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Back in the early 1980s the U.S. economy was experiencing lethargic growth but high inflation. The term “stagflation” was born. Just in the past couple weeks, that term has come to the front burner of the marketplace. The U.S. economy may now be slowing down, as seen by the recent downbeat gross domestic product report for the first quarter. Yet, recent data shows consumer and producer price inflation levels are remaining stubbornly high despite the tightening of U.S. monetary policy by the Federal Reserve over the past couple years.

The heightened stagflation worries in the marketplace at present are taking a toll on many raw commodity markets, including metals, crude oil, grains, international foods and livestock. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday afternoon reiterated the Fed’s resolve to bring inflation down farther before the central bank starts to lower interest rates. The thinking in the marketplace on future Fed policy moves has changed dramatically the past several months. It’s gone from as many as seven interest rate cuts in 2024, down to maybe one or two—and with some outliers saying the next Fed move may be to raise interest rates.

Stagflation is bearish for raw commodities because it suggests reduced demand from consumer and commercial buyers. The Fed is in a tight spot under such conditions because lowering interest rates to spur more demand may also prompt even higher inflation.

So how can you gauge the stagflation situation as it pertains to being bearish for raw commodities and when that will change? One way is to closely monitor the daily chart for the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index. The GSCI is a basket of major raw commodity futures prices rolled into one composite price index. See on the daily chart for the GSCI that the index is now trending down. As long as the GSCI is in a downtrend on the daily chart, serious stagflation concerns are likely to persist. When the price downtrend on the daily chart stalls out and ends, the present stagflation worries will likely have ebbed. And when the GSCI starts to trend higher on the daily chart, then risk appetite will likely have returned to the marketplace and raw commodity market bulls will again be energized.

Stay tuned!

U.S. jobs report on deck Friday a.m.

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Friday, May 3–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s April U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm jobs component of the jobs report is expected to show a rise of 240,000, following the March report showing a rise of 303,000. A significant miss on the print from the consensus forecast would likely move many markets.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $79.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.569%.  

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. services PMI and the ISM report on business services.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 5,154.25 and then at 5,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,036.25 and then at 5,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 17,949.00 and then at 18,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,500.00 and then at this week’s low of 17,386.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 116 5/32 and then at 117 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 113 22/32 and then at 113 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.16.0 and then at 108.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 108.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 107.12.5. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0775 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at this week’s low of 1.0670. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a six-week low Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $78.41 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight, boosted late this week by better risk sentiment in the marketplace after the Federal Reserve offered no hawkish surprises at the FOMC meeting this week. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, and soybean meal are trending higher on the daily bar charts.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Marketplace assuaged by no hawkish surprises from Fed

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Thursday, May 2–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace has mostly digested the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that Wednesday. The Fed left U.S. interest rates unchanged, as expected, but said there has been a “lack of further progress” in recent months toward its inflation target of 2% annually. The Fed said it is “strongly committed” to returning inflation to 2% and there will be no rate cuts until that time. Fed Chairman Powell in his press conference ruled out a rate hike coming soon. While the Fed leaned hawkish on U.S. monetary policy, there was nothing in the FOMC statement or Powell’s comments that surprised the marketplace. The marketplace seemingly breathed a sigh of relief the FOMC statement and Powell were not even more hawkish.

Friday morning comes the April U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm jobs component of the jobs report is expected to show a rise of 240,000, following the March report showing a rise of 303,000. Wednesday’s ADP national employment report for April showed a rise of 192,000 jobs, compared to expectations for a rise of 183,000.

In overnight news, the Japanese yen rose against the U.S. dollar on likely more intervention from the Bank of Japan.

The OECD think tank raised its 2024 global economic growth projection to 3.1% from 2.9%.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $80.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.614%.  

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the international trade report, preliminary productivity and costs, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, and the global manufacturing PMI.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 5,154.25 and then at 5,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,037.75 and then at 5,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 17,793.25 and then at this week’s high of 17,949.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 17,399.25 and then at 17,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 115 6/32 and then at 116 5/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 113 22/32 and then at 113 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 108.06.5 and then at 108.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 107.20.0 and then at this week’s low of 107.12.5. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0775 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at this week’s low of 1.0670. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a six-week low Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $78.83 and then at $77.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight, boosted by better risk sentiment in the marketplace after the Federal Reserve offered no hawkish surprises at the FOMC meeting this week. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Wheat and soybean meal prices are still trending higher.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Silver prices now trending down

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The recent sell-off in the silver market has produced important clues. Silver prices are now trending down on the daily bar chart, to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The down-trending silver market also suggests the gold market may have put in a near-term top. See on the daily chart the key support and resistance levels for July silver futures. Stay tuned!