Jim Wyckoff

Dominate Your Market

Daily Morning Report

Another busy U.S. data day Thursday

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Thursday, May 16–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly firmer openings and at new record highs when the New York day session begins. A slightly cooler-than-expected U.S. CPI report on Wednesday cheered the stock and commodity market bulls.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $78.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.34%.  

Another busy day for U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, new residential construction, import and export price indexes, and industrial production and capacity utilization. Several Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to speak today.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit a contract and record high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 5,343.25 and then at 5,375.00. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 5,266.25 and then at this week’s low of 5,216.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a contract and record high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,800.00 and then at 18,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,600.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of 18,393.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 118 22/32 and then at 119 even. Shorter-term support lies at 118 even and then at 117 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a six-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.00.0 and then at 110.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 109.16.0 and then at 109.08.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are down just a bit in early U.S. trading after hitting a five-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0909 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 1.0828 and then at this week’s low of 1.0780. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $79.17 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $76.70 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices mixed but mostly firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, soybeans and soybean meal are all trending higher on the daily bar charts. It appears the speculators are wanting to play the long sides of the grains, including the big “fund” traders.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Very busy U.S. data day Wed.

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Wednesday, May 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is awaiting the U.S. consumer price index report for April, out this morning. CPI is seen up 0.4%, compared to the March report showing a rise of 0.4%. The annual CPI April reading is seen up 3.6% compared to up 3.8% in the March report. Traders and investors are thinking the CPI report might come in hot today, following the producer price index report for April that was out Tuesday morning and ran hot on inflation.

In overnight news, Comex copper futures hit a new record high of $5.1280 a pound. Tighter global supplies, better world economic growth, smelter issues in China, as well as rampant market speculation, are driving the red industrial metal’s price sharply higher. Could copper be the next cocoa? Cocoa futures last year at this time were trading around $3,000 a metric ton. In April, cocoa futures reached a record high of $12,261 a ton.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker and trading around $78.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.42%.  

Beside the CPI report, it’s a very busy day for U.S. economic data Wednesday, also including the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the Empire State manufacturing survey, retail sales, real earnings, the NAHB housing market index, manufacturing and trade inventories, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and Treasury international capital data. A few Federal Reserve officials also are slated to speak today.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit a five-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,300.00 and then at the contract high of 5,333.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,216.75 and then at 5,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit a five-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,500.00 and then at 18,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,250.00 and then at this week’s low of 18,165.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a five-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 118 even and then at 119 even. Shorter-term support lies at 116 even and then at this week’s low of 115 21/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a five-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 109.16.0 and then at 109.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 109.00.5 and then at this week’s low of 108.15.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are up just a bit in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0850 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0780 and then at last week’s low of 1.0740. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $79.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the May low of $76.89 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, soybeans and soybean meal are all trending higher on the daily bar charts. It appears the speculators are wanting to play the long sides of the grains, including the big “fund” traders.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

U.S. inflation data on deck

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Tuesday, May 14–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

Traders and investors are awaiting key U.S. inflation data for April out this week, starting with the producer price index on Tuesday and then the consumer price index on Wednesday. Tuesday’s PPI is seen up 0.3%, month-on-month, compared to a rise of 0.2% in the March report. CPI is seen up 0.4%, compared to the March report showing a rise of 0.4%. The annual CPI April reading is seen up 3.6% compared to up 3.8% in the March report.

In overnight news, Japanese bond yields are nearing the 1% mark amid the Bank of Japan’s effective slight tightening of its monetary policy. Japan’s government bond yields have not been above 1% for 12 years.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $79.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.477%.  

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, and the NFIB small business index.

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the May high of 5,264.00 and then at 5,300.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,225.00 and then at 5,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 18,348.00 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,100.00 and then at last week’s low of 17,983.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the May high of 117 7/32 and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 115 23/32 and then at 115 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 109.03.5 and then at the May high of 109.09.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 108.19.5 and then at 108.10.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are up just a bit in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the May high of 1.0832 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0740 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $77.78 and then at the May low of $76.89. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Grain market bulls have come to life. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, soybeans and soybean meal are all trending higher on the daily bar charts. It appears the speculators are wanting to play the long side of the grains, including the big “fund” traders.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Crude oil trending down

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Nymex crude oil futures prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart and the bears have the near-term technical advantage. With raw commodity sector leader crude oil’s prices trending down at present, the rest of the raw commodity sector markets will likely find the going will be tougher to extend any existing price uptrends. Stay tuned!

Quieter start to trading week

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Monday, May 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. It’s a quieter start to the trading week, with no major U.S. economic reports due out today.

Traders and investors are awaiting key U.S. inflation data for April out this week—the producer price index on Tuesday and the consumer price index on Wednesday. PPI is seen up 0.3%, month-on-month, compared to a rise of 0.2% in the March report. CPI is seen up 0.4%, compared to the March report showing a rise of 0.4%. The annual CPI April reading is seen up 3.6% compared to up 3.8% in the March report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer trading around $78.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.49%.  

STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,300.00 and then at the contract high of 5,333.50. Support for active traders is seen at 5,225.00 and then at 5,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 18,348.00 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,103.75 and then at last week’s low of 17,983.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 117 7/32 and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 115 23/32 and then at 115 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 109.03.5 and then at the May high of 109.09.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 108.19.5 and then at 108.10.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The June Euro currency futures are up a bit in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the May high of 1.0832 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0740 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $77.78 and then at the May low of $76.89. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, soybeans and soybean meal are all trending higher on the daily bar charts.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

The next commodity sector to rally…

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Precious metals traders know the past few months their markets have been in the spotlight as gold prices in April reached a record high and silver prices a three-year high. Longer-term price uptrends are still firmly in place in the gold and silver markets but prices have backed down from their highs. While there may well be still more price upside for gold and silver in the coming months, the bull-market runs have now become mature. The bullish gold and silver trains have already left their stations and traders and investors climbing on board now know that risks of big downside corrections are higher, including the risks of market tops already being in place despite the still-bullish longer-term technical postures.

So, which commodity markets are still sitting at the train station but are ready to take off? See on the chart below the commodity sectors’ price postures of the past several months. The left scale of the chart is percent, with all sectors starting at 100% of price in early October of 2023. Precious metals prices started to take off in early March and peaked (so far) at around 130% of price compared to early October. The soft commodities (coffee, cocoa, sugar, cotton and orange juice) started to rally in early January and peaked at just above 115% in early April. Energy and livestock sectors have languished the past several months. Grains, just in the past few weeks, however, appear to be coming to life. It’s my bias that the grain futures markets are the next bullish train that is very close to pulling out of the station.

Here’s another important element to consider, at present. Corn, soybeans and wheat are now just into their major U.S. planting and/or growing seasons. History shows “weather markets” in the grains usually occur at least once every year (to varying degrees) during the U.S. spring and summer months. Weather-market scares (usually because of hot, dry forecasts for major growing regions) pop up quickly and can die out quickly. However, big price moves in a short period of time can and do occur in the grain futures markets during weather scares.

The grain futures markets at present are all in fledgling price uptrends (except soybean oil) for the first time since last summer. And the weather-market-scare season is now at hand. The conductor of the bullish grain market train has just cried, “All aboard!”

Stay tuned!