Nymex crude oil futures prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart and the bears have the near-term technical advantage. With raw commodity sector leader crude oil’s prices trending down at present, the rest of the raw commodity sector markets will likely find the going will be tougher to extend any existing price uptrends. Stay tuned!
Daily Morning Report
Quieter start to trading week
Monday, May 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Traders and investors are awaiting key U.S. inflation data for April out this week—the producer price index on Tuesday and the consumer price index on Wednesday. PPI is seen up 0.3%, month-on-month, compared to a rise of 0.2% in the March report. CPI is seen up 0.4%, compared to the March report showing a rise of 0.4%. The annual CPI April reading is seen up 3.6% compared to up 3.8% in the March report.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer trading around $78.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.49%.
STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,300.00 and then at the contract high of 5,333.50. Support for active traders is seen at 5,225.00 and then at 5,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 18,348.00 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,103.75 and then at last week’s low of 17,983.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 117 7/32 and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 115 23/32 and then at 115 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 109.03.5 and then at the May high of 109.09.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 108.19.5 and then at 108.10.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are up a bit in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the May high of 1.0832 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0740 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $77.78 and then at the May low of $76.89. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, soybeans and soybean meal are all trending higher on the daily bar charts.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
The next commodity sector to rally…
Precious metals traders know the past few months their markets have been in the spotlight as gold prices in April reached a record high and silver prices a three-year high. Longer-term price uptrends are still firmly in place in the gold and silver markets but prices have backed down from their highs. While there may well be still more price upside for gold and silver in the coming months, the bull-market runs have now become mature. The bullish gold and silver trains have already left their stations and traders and investors climbing on board now know that risks of big downside corrections are higher, including the risks of market tops already being in place despite the still-bullish longer-term technical postures.
So, which commodity markets are still sitting at the train station but are ready to take off? See on the chart below the commodity sectors’ price postures of the past several months. The left scale of the chart is percent, with all sectors starting at 100% of price in early October of 2023. Precious metals prices started to take off in early March and peaked (so far) at around 130% of price compared to early October. The soft commodities (coffee, cocoa, sugar, cotton and orange juice) started to rally in early January and peaked at just above 115% in early April. Energy and livestock sectors have languished the past several months. Grains, just in the past few weeks, however, appear to be coming to life. It’s my bias that the grain futures markets are the next bullish train that is very close to pulling out of the station.
Here’s another important element to consider, at present. Corn, soybeans and wheat are now just into their major U.S. planting and/or growing seasons. History shows “weather markets” in the grains usually occur at least once every year (to varying degrees) during the U.S. spring and summer months. Weather-market scares (usually because of hot, dry forecasts for major growing regions) pop up quickly and can die out quickly. However, big price moves in a short period of time can and do occur in the grain futures markets during weather scares.
The grain futures markets at present are all in fledgling price uptrends (except soybean oil) for the first time since last summer. And the weather-market-scare season is now at hand. The conductor of the bullish grain market train has just cried, “All aboard!”
Stay tuned!
Quieter marketplace Thursday
Thursday, May 9–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
The Bank of England holds is regular monetary policy meeting today. The BOE is expected to keep rates unchanged at a 16-year high of 5.25%. Investors will be looking for comments around policy outlook and any signs from the BOE for a possible rate cut.
China trade data for April came out better than market expectations, with exports up 1.5%, year-on-year and imports up 8.4% in the same period.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are higher trading around $79.55 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.51%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and the monthly retail chain store sales index.
STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 5,226.75 and then at 5,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,155.75 and then at 5,125.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 18,266.25 and then at 18,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,100.00 and then at this week’s low of 17,983.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 116 9/32 and then at this week’s high of 117 7/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 115 23/32 and then at 115 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 109.00.0 and then at last week’s high of 109.09.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 108.16.0 and then at 108.08.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at last week’s high of 1.0832. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at 1.0670. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are firmer on short covering after hitting a nearly two-month low Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at this week’s low of $76.89. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, soybeans and soybean meal are all trending higher on the daily bar charts for the first time in months.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Quieter marketplace at mid-week
Wednesday, May 8–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
In overnight news, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari leaned hawkish on U.S. monetary policy by saying the central bank is likely to keep rates where they are “for an extended period of time.” Kashkari is not a voting member of the FOMC.
Sweden’s central bank, Riksbank, cut its main interest rate by 0.25% to 3.75%.
Reports said China’s central bank continues to stock up on gold reserves, adding 1.9 metric tons in April, making it 18 straight months for expanding its reserves. However, the reports said the pace of China gold buying has slowed.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are down and trading around $77.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.46%.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, monthly wholesale trade and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 5,226.75 and then at 5,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,155.75 and then at 5,125.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 18,266.25 and then at 18,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,100.00 and then at this week’s low of 17,983.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 117 7/32 and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 115 23/32 and then at 115 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 109.09.5 and then at 109.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 108.23.0 and then at 108.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at last week’s high of 1.0832. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0744 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a nearly two-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $79.17 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $76.89 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were weaker overnight, on routine corrective pullbacks from recent good gains. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, soybeans and soybean meal are all trending higher on the daily bar charts. Seasonal price tendencies are presently favoring the grain market bulls.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
Grain markets get more bullish
The corn, soybean, soybean meal, SRW wheat and HRW wheat futures markets are all trending higher on the daily bar charts for the first time in months. The only laggard in the grains complex is soybean oil futures. The less-hawkish lean by the Federal Reserve at last week’s FOMC meeting, less risk aversion in the marketplace at present and grain-markets-friendly seasonal factors have all worked to get the speculators, including the big funds, more bulled up on the grain markets. Also, the corn, soybean and wheat markets are in their planting and/or growing seasons in the U.S. That means weather-market rallies can occur. More years than not there is some degree of at least one weather-market rally in the corn, soybeans and/or wheat markets during the spring and summer months. Stay tuned!