Daily Morning Report

Monday, November 20–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. It will likely be a quieter trading week as the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday is on Thursday and Friday is typically one of the quietest U.S. trading days of the year.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower and hitting an 11-week low. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $77.00 a barrel. Reports said OPEC is considering more oil-production cuts. The cartel will meet this coming weekend in Vienna. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.467%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes leading economic indicators.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. A minor bullish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the November high of 4,541.25 and then at 4,566.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,500.00 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the November high of 16,049.50 and then at 16,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,800.00 and then at 15,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the November high of 116 5/32 and then at 117 even. Shorter-term support lies at 114 10/32 and then at 114 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the 109.10.0 and then at the November high of 109.20.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 108.19.0 and then at 108.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are up and hit an 11-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at 1.1050. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0925 and then at 1.0882. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are higher on a corrective bounce after hitting a four-month low last week. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $75.65 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly USDA crop progress reports. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, although my bias is that those markets have put in price bottoms, or are very close to doing so. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets are trending up.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, November 17–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. It’s been an extra important trading week that is just winding down. U.S. inflation data was tamer, as was that from the U.K. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “Global inflation fight turns a corner.” Trader and investor risk appetite was boosted this week, evidenced by the U.S. stock indexes hitting multi-week highs. After the tame U.S. inflation data earlier this week, the marketplace now expects the Federal Reserve has finished its interest-rate-increase cycle. There are growing notions the Fed will even lower interest rates in the spring.

In overnight news, the Euro zone October consumer price index was reported up 2.9%, year-on-year, which was in line with market expectations.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $74.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.406%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes new residential sales.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up and near this week’s two-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,541.25 and then at 4,566.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,500.00 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady after hitting a 3.5-month high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 16,049.50 and then at 16,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,700.00 and then at 15,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 116 5/32 and then at 117 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 114 28/32 and then at 114 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a two-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 109.20.0 and then at 110.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 109.02.5 and then at Thursday’s low of 108.19.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0950 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0850 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are higher on a corrective bounce from Thursday’s shellacking that pushed prices to a four-month low. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at Thursday’s high of $76.63. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $72.16 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker in overnight trading. Not much new in the grains this week. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, although my bias is that those markets have put in price bottoms, or are very close to doing so. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets are trending up.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, November 16–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to steady to slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins, after hitting multi-week highs on Wednesday. Risk appetite in the marketplace has up-ticked this week after tamer U.S. inflation reports were released that suggest the Federal Reserve is done with its interest-rate-increase cycle. Also, several weeks into the Israel-Hamas war, there has so far been no major involvement from other countries, including the U.S. and Iran. However, that situation remains very uneasy.

In other news, U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met Wednesday afternoon during the APEC Summit in San Francisco to discuss various geopolitical, trade, and economic issues. Both leaders recognized the need for cooperation to stabilize those issues. Biden aimed to ease tensions with China without appearing weak on the matter. Xi sought foreign investment and export markets to counter China’s economic challenges, including a real-estate crash and excessive debt.

A stopgap spending measure to avoid a U.S. government shutdown on Friday and fund the government into early 2024 was agreed upon by the U.S. Congress and is now headed to President Biden’s desk, allowing U.S. lawmakers to prepare for negotiations on full-year appropriations between the two chambers. Biden is expected to sign the measure into law.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $76.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.496%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey and Treasury international capital data.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down after hitting a two-month high Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,541.25 and then at 4,566.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,465.00 and then at 4,430.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are down a bit after hitting a 3.5-month high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 16,049.50 and then at 16,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,700.00 and then at 15,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 115 24/32 and then at 116 even. Shorter-term support lies at 114 even and then at 113 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 109.12.5 and then at 109.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 108.14.0 and then at 108.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0946 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0850 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at this week’s high of $79.77. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the November low of $74.91 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were down in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Not much new this week. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, although my bias is that those markets have put in price bottoms, or are very close to doing so. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets are trending up.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, November 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to firmer openings when the New York day session begins, following strong gains posted Tuesday that pushed the indexes to multi-week highs.

Trader and investor attitudes are more upbeat at mid-week following Tuesday morning’s U.S. consumer price index report for October came in at up 3.2%, year-on-year. CPI was forecast at up 3.3%, year-on-year, versus a gain of 3.7% in the September report. The core CPI rate was up 4.0% in October, compared to the consensus forecast of up 4.1% and up 4.1% in the September CPI report. This data fell into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy doves, who want to see the Federal Reserve halt its interest-rate-tightening cycle. U.S. Treasury yields dropped on the CPI data and the U.S. dollar index sold off sharply. The U.S. stock indexes rallied strongly on the CPI news.

The U.K. also got some better inflation news at mid-week. Consumer prices were 4.6% higher in October, year-on-year, following a rise of 6.7% in September. The October rise in CPI was the slowest in the U.K. in two years. Some analysts are now saying the better U.K. inflation data will end the Bank of England’s interest-rate-increase cycle.

In other overnight news, China got some slightly better-than-expected economic data when its industrial output for October was reported up 4.6%, year-on-year, versus expectations for a rise of 4.3%.

On tap today, U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are set to meet during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco. The White House wants a resumption of U.S./China military communications. Iran is also on the agenda, including the question of Iran’s nuclear program. A potential thawing of heretofore icy U.S.-China relations also has traders and investors with more upbeat attitudes this week.

U.S. lawmakers are once again scrambling to pass a measure to fund the federal government. This time the deadline is midnight Friday. This is “old hat” for the marketplace and markets are so far not reacting much to a potential U.S. government shutdown. U.S. congressional leaders are presently working on a plan to avert the shutdown.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer after careening to a nine-week low on Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $77.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.469%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the producer price index report, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, the Empire State manufacturing survey, retail sales, and manufacturing and trade inventories.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer and hit a two-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,550.00 and then at 4,566.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,500.00 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are up and hit a 3.5-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 16,000.00 and then at 16,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,800.00 and then at 15,650.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, after hitting a six-week high overnight and posting strong gains Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 115 24/32 and then at 116 even. Shorter-term support lies at 114 even and then at 113 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 109.10.0 and then at 109.20.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 108.16.0 and then at 108.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading following strong gains Tuesday that pushed prices to a 2.5-month high. Bulls now have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0946 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $79.77 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $76.21 and then at the November low of $74.91. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer in overnight trading. Better risk appetite in the marketplace this week is encouraging the speculative grain market bulls to enter the markets on the long side. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff