Daily Morning Report

Thursday, December 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets that were open Friday were mostly up. Some European markets were closed for the Christmas holiday and many U.S. markets, including the stock indexes, close early today, ahead of Christmas Day on Friday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace remains tentative on this last trading day of the holiday-shortened week. President Trump unexpectedly vetoed a big U.S. defense spending bill on Wednesday and has held up a financial stimulus package for Americans that Congress had passed earlier this week. This comes at the same time the Covid-19 pandemic continues its rampage in the U.S., Europe and many other countries. Traders and investors are worried about the specter of more business and public restrictions coming soon.

On the bright side, European markets were upbeat on continued progress between the U.K. and the European Union on a smooth Brexit deal. Some reports said a deal could be reached on the matter soon.

The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. The other important outside market sees February Nymex crude oil futures prices weaker and trading around $47.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading around 0.94%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Thursday as the U.S. government is closed for the Christmas Eve holiday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. A near-term price uptrend has been at least temporarily negated with Monday’s big spike down in prices. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 3,701.75 and then at the record high of 3,724.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 3,651.00 and then at 3,620.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 12,789.75 and then at 12,850.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,631.50 and then at 12,550.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 173 even and then at Wednesday’s high of 173 14/32. Shorter-term support lies at 172 even and then at this week’s low of 171 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 138.00.0 and then at Wednesday’s high of 138.03.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 137.20.0 and then at 137.15.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer early today. Bulls are in solid technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.2251 and then at this week’s high of 1.2290. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.2185 and then at this week’s low of 1.2158. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $48.62 and then at the December high of $49.43. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $47.00 and then at this week’s low of $46.16. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. The grain markets bulls have had a very good week and have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily charts. The supply and demand fundamentals in the grains continue to favor the bulls. Dry weather in South American growing regions is also bullish for corn and soybeans. The grain markets are getting over-extended on a short-term technical basis and are soon due for normal corrective pullbacks in their uptrends.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, December 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is not paying much attention to President Trump’s threat to not sign a U.S. stimulus package agreed upon by the Congress a few days ago. Trump wants more funding for individual Americans—triple the amount Congress agreed upon. Trump is not likely to veto the bill, and even if he does not sign it, it will still become law in 10 days.

Traders and investors are still somewhat tentative as medical experts continue to assess the implications of the new strain of Covid-19 that has hit the U.K and has likely spread to other countries, including the U.S. Many experts believe current Covid-19 vaccines will still work on the new mutation, which is more easily transmissible.

European markets were upbeat on continued progress between the U.K. and the European Union on a smooth Brexit deal. Some reports said a deal could be reached on the matter as soon as today.

The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. The other important outside market sees February Nymex crude oil futures prices slightly up and trading around $47.15 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading around 0.92%.

It’s a very busy day of U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday, including the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, personal income and outlays, durable goods orders, the weekly jobless claims report, the U.S. house price index, new residential sales, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. A near-term price uptrend has been at least temporarily negated with Monday’s spike down in prices. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,700.00 and then at the record high of 3,724.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,651.00 and then at 3,620.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 12,789.75 and then at 12,850.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,630.00 and then at 12,550.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 173 14/32 and then at this week’s high of 173 24/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 172 5/32 and then at 171 28/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.03.0 and then at this week’s high of 138.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 137.23.0 and then at last week’s low of 137.19.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher early today. Bulls are in solid technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.2290 and then at the December high of 1.2303. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2186 and then at this week’s low of 1.2158. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of $47.96 and then at $49.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $46.16 and then at $45.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. The grain markets bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily charts. The supply and demand fundamentals in the grains continue to favor the bulls. Dry weather in South American growing regions is also bullish for corn and soybeans. Traders today will examine the weekly USDA export sales report, out one day early this week due to the Friday Christmas holiday.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, December 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian shares mostly down and European shares mostly firmer. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The global marketplace is still edgy following the weekend news of a newly discovered and more easily transmissible strain of Covid-19 in the U.K. Several countries have banned travel to and from Britain. Some health experts said they believe the current Covid vaccines could be effective on the new mutation of the virus. However, it’s too soon to tell if the current Covid vaccines will be as effective on the new strain as on the original form of the virus. The bottom line for the marketplace is keener uncertainty that leads to risk aversion.

Reports overnight said the U.K. and the European Union may be getting closer on reaching a smooth Brexit agreement.

The U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading on a corrective rebound after hitting a 2.5-year low last week. The other important outside market sees February Nymex crude oil futures prices lower and trading around $47.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading around 0.938%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the third estimate of third-quarter GDP, the Richmond Fed business survey, existing home sales and the consumer confidence index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. A near-term price uptrend has been negated with Monday’s spike down in prices. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,700.00 and then at Monday’s record high of 3,724.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,663.75 and then at 3,650.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 12,789.75 and then at 12,850.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,639.50 and then at 12,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 173 2/32 and then at 173 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 172 5/32 and then at 171 28/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 137.30.5 and then at Monday’s high of 138.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 137.23.0 and then at last week’s low of 137.19.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower early today seeing mild profit taking from recent gains. Prices last week hit a nearly two-year high. Bulls are in solid technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.2285 and then at last week’s high of 1.2303. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2235 and then at 1.2200. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $47.96 and then at $49.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $46.25 and then at $46.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are steady to lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on profit taking from recent gains and amid the risk-off trading atmosphere this week. The grain markets bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and the supply and demand fundamentals in the grains continue to favor the bulls. Dry weather in South American growing regions is also bullish for corn and soybeans.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, December 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were down overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward sharply lower openings when the New York day session begins. The market place has shuddered to start the holiday-shortened trading week, on news of a new and more easily transmissible strain of Covid-19 that has been detected and is spreading rapidly in the U.K. European countries have quickly banned travel to and from Britain. The news comes just as the world was beginning to breathe a bit of a sigh of relief because of the rapid deployment of vaccines for Covid-19. This new strain of Covid has overshadowed the weekend agreement between U.S. congressional Democrats and Republicans on a new $900 billion financial aid package for Americans.

Further disrupting the marketplace to start the trading week is the failure of the U.K. and the European Union to reach a smooth Brexit agreement and missing a weekend deadline for such to happen.

The U.S. dollar index is sharply higher Monday on safe-haven demand and a rebound after hitting a 2.5-year low last week. The other important outside market sees February Nymex crude oil futures prices sharply lower and trading around $47.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading around 0.91%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Chicago Fed national activity index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are sharply down in early U.S. trading after hitting another record high overnight. Prices also are scoring a big and bearish “key reversal” down on the daily chart, which is a clue that a market top is now in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,650.00 and then at 3,675.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,596.00 and then at 3,575.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,600.00 and then at 12,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,463.00 and then at 12,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading, on safe-haven demand. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 173 24/32 and then at 174 even. Shorter-term support lies at 173 even and then at the overnight low of 172 8/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a four-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.08.0 and then at 138.12.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 137.24.0 and then at last week’s low of 137.19.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower early today seeing profit taking from recent gains. Prices last week hit a nearly two-year high. Bulls are in solid technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2266 and then at last week’s high of 1.2303. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2158 and then at 1.2100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are sharply lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $47.00 and then at $48.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $46.25 and then at $46.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on profit taking from recent gains and amid the risk-off trading atmosphere today. The grain markets bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and the supply and demand fundamentals in the grains continue to favor the bulls.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff