Daily Morning Report

Friday, December 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk sentiment has been very upbeat this week, heading into the holidays. This week saw an FOMC meeting in which the U.S. Federal Reserve reaffirmed its very easy monetary policy stance for at least the next two years. Also, the U.S. Congress is inching closer to agreement on a financial stimulus package for Americans that likely includes a check for American taxpayers totaling around $600-$700 and more financial help for businesses. Also, hopes are higher late this week the U.K. and the European Union can come to agreement on a “smooth Brexit.” That’s the good news. Some in the marketplace are wondering if traders and investors could soon focus more on the bad news: a Covid-19 pandemic crisis in the U.S. and other countries that is likely to get worse before it gets better, and which is already producing a few signs of a second body blow to major global economies that were just beginning to recover from the springtime business lockdowns.

A feature in the marketplace this week has been a strong surge in Bitcoin prices to a new record high. This newer investment vehicle has been getting mixed reviews from the overall marketplace. Some are calling Bitcoin the new gold. Some TV advertisements are portraying those who hold gold as a safe-haven asset as being behind the times. The other side of the argument says that when sh*t really, really hits the fan, is the rattled investor going to be comfortable holding an asset that can only be seen on his computer screen when the internet is in service. The jury is still out on that matter. One thing that’s important to point out regarding Bitcoin’s price action this week: It’s gone “parabolic” in trading parlance—meaning a nearly straight up price move. Any time a market does such it’s a warning signal that from a time perspective a market top is likely coming sooner rather than later.

In overnight news, the Bank of Japan at its monetary policy meeting said it would increase its bond purchases and extend its pandemic-relief program by six months.

The U.S. dollar index is slightly up on a tepid bounce after hitting a 2.5-year low on Thursday. The USDX remains in a strong price downtrend and it’s important to note that trends in the currency markets tend to be stronger and longer-lasting than price trends in other markets. The other important outside market sees January Nymex crude oil futures prices slightly lower and trading around $48.30 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading around 0.92%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes leading economic indicators and international transactions from a current account perspective.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit another record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in the contract and record high of 3,723.00 and then at 3,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,699.25 and then at 3,675.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit another record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 12,769.00 and then at 12,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,707.00 and then at 12,572.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 173 1/32 and then at Thursday’s high of 173 22/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 172 4/32 and then at 172 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 138.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 138.04.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 137.19.5 and then at 137.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower early today and not far below this week’s nearly two-year high. Bulls are in solid technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.2303 and then at 1.2350. Shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 1.2219 and then at 1.2200. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and not far below this week’s nine-month high, in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $48.59 and then at $49.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of $47.17 and then at Tuesday’s low of $46.54. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. The grain markets bulls have had a very good week, to suggest more upside in the near term. Solid worldwide demand for U.S. grains remains a major bullish fundamental. There is also some adverse weather in South America corn and soybean regions that is helping to drive prices up. And the weaker U.S. dollar index continues to work in favor of the grain market bulls.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, December 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and new record highs when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk sentiment remains keener this week, following a friendly FOMC meeting and ideas that the U.S. Congress is moving closer to agreement on a financial stimulus package for Americans. And hopes are higher this week that the U.K. and the European Union can come to agreement on a “smooth Brexit.”

The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that ended Wednesday afternoon saw the Fed leave U.S. interest rates unchanged, as expected. The FOMC statement also said there will likely be no change in U.S. interest rates until at least 2023. The Fed upgraded its U.S. economic growth and employment estimates. Meanwhile, the Fed will keep buying at least $120 billion of bonds per month until “substantial further progress has been made toward the committee’s maximum employment and price stability goals.” That marks a subtle change from previous Fed wording that said purchases will continue over the “coming months.” The marketplace deemed the FOMC results as upbeat and just a bit more dovish on monetary policy than expected.

In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index for November came in at down 0.3% from October and also down 0.3%, year-on-year. Major global economies are not experiencing any rising inflation concerns. If anything, there are more deflation concerns in the here and now. Still, the “reflation trade” is being embraced by those market watchers that reckon all the record-breaking central bank and government stimulus measures this year will stoke problematic price inflation down the road.

The U.S. dollar index is solidly lower early today and hit another 2.5-year low overnight. The other important outside market sees January Nymex crude oil futures prices slightly higher and trading around $48.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading around 0.925%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, new residential construction and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in the contract and record high of 3,717.50 and then at 3,735.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,692.00 and then at 3,660.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit another record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 12,750.00 and then at 12,850.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,672.00 and then at 12,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 173 12/32 and then at this week’s high of 173 31/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 172 4/32 and then at 172 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 138.04.0 and then at last week’s high of 138.07.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 137.19.5 and then at 137.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher and hit a nearly two-year high in early U.S. trading. Bulls are in solid technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2275 and then at 1.2300. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2219 and then at 1.2200. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and hit a nine-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $48.59 and then at $49.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of $47.17 and then at Tuesday’s low of $46.54. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. The grain markets are proving resilient amid still-solid worldwide demand for U.S. grains. Grain bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The weaker U.S. dollar index continues to work in favor of the grain market bulls. On tap Thursday morning is the weekly USDA export sales report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, December 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings, and near the recent record highs, when the New York day session begins. The U.S. and other countries have rolled out Covid-19 vaccines in rapid fashion as there appears to be light at the end of the dark pandemic tunnel. The U.K. and the European Union appear to be getting closer to a smooth Brexit deal, and U.S. congressional Democrats and Republicans may be inching closer to a new financial stimulus package for Americans. Both parties have agreed some members won’t leave Washington, D.C., for the holidays until a deal is done.

The economic data point of the day and arguably of the week is today’s conclusion of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, including the Fed’s economic projections. The marketplace will parse words and comments from Fed officials, for clues on U.S. monetary policy direction in 2021. Most believe the Fed will keep its very accommodative monetary policy. Specifically, the marketplace wants more guidance on the Fed’s bond-buying program (quantitative easing), as the Fed has said it plans to give an update on the matter.

In overnight news, the Euro zone got some upbeat economic data as the Markit composite purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.8 in December from 45.3 in November. A reading above 50.0 suggests growth.

The U.S. dollar index is lower early today and hit another 2.5-year low overnight. The other important outside market sees January Nymex crude oil futures prices slightly higher and trading around $47.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading around 0.92%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, retail sales, the flash manufacturing PMI, the flash services PMI, the NAHB housing market index, manufacturing and trade inventories and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and near the recent record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in the contract and record high of 3,707.00 and then at 3,725.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,680.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,636.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and near the recent record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 12,667.75 and then at 12,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,388.00 and then at 12,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 173 31/32 and then at last week’s high of 174 9/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 172 16/32 and then at 172 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 138.04.0 and then at last week’s high of 138.07.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 137.23.0 and then at 137.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher and hit a nearly two-year high in early U.S. trading. Bulls are in solid technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2241 and then at 1.2300. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2174 and then at this week’s low of 1.2145. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and hit a nine-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $47.91 and then at $49.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $46.54 and then at this week’s low of $45.69. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. The grain markets are proving resilient amid still-solid worldwide demand for U.S. grains. Grain bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The weaker U.S. dollar index continues to work in favor of the grain market bulls.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, December 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. It’s risk-on for traders and investors early this week. The first U.S. Covid-19 vaccines have been rolled out to health care professionals, to hopefully turn the tide on the pandemic, which is the worst  respiratory pandemic in over 100 years, since the 1918 Spanish flu. The U.S. Congress appears to be making progress on a slightly slimmed-down ($748 billion) U.S. financial aid package for Americans. Also, reports this week say the U.K. and the European Union have extended the deadline to complete a deal on a smooth Brexit.

In overnight news, China’s economic recovery continued in November. China’s industrial production rose 7.0% versus 6.9% growth in October and 6.8% forecast, year-on-year. China’s retail sales rose 5.0% in November versus 4.3% growth in October and up 5.5% forecast, year-on-year. China’s economic growth comes as other major industrial economies are dealing with new lockdowns due to the spreading Covid-19. Total pandemic U.S. deaths this week surpassed 300,000, with some health experts predicting another 100,000 Americans will die from the virus by the end of January.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The marketplace will parse words and comments from Fed officials, for clues on U.S. monetary policy direction in 2021. Most believe the Fed will keep its very accommodative monetary policy.

The U.S. dollar index is weaker early today after hitting another 2.5-year low on Monday. The other important outside market sees January Nymex crude oil futures prices slightly higher and trading around $47.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading around 0.9%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the Empire State manufacturing index, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, and Treasury international capital data.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are not far below last week’s record high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 3.691.50 and then at the contract and record high of 3,707.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,636.25 and then at last week’s low of 3,620.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 12,559.50 and then at the contract high of 12,667.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 12,388.00 and then at 12,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 173 31/32 and then at last week’s high of 174 9/32. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 172 16/32 and then at 172 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.04.0 and then at last week’s high of 138.07.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 137.23.0 and then at 137.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls remain in solid technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the December high of 1.2208 and then at 1.2250. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.2145 and then at 1.2100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and close to last week’s eight-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $47.44 and then at last week’s high of $47.74. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $45.69 and then at $45.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Not much new this week. Price action has turned choppy. However, grain bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The weaker U.S. dollar index continues to work in favor of the grain market bulls.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff