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Daily Morning Report

U.S. Senate races in Georgia in focus

January 5, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, January 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Monday’s price action in the U.S. stock indexes hints the bulls are now exhausted. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushed to new record highs early on but by the end of the day finished near their daily lows, scoring bearish “outside days” down on the daily bar charts. And if there is follow-through selling pressure Tuesday, then more significantly bearish “key reversals” down would be confirmed in both markets, which would be one technical clue that market tops are in place. Keep in mind these potentially bearish chart patterns have occurred in the very recent past, only to see the stock indexes push to new highs.

Focus in the U.S. Tuesday is on the two U.S. Senate seats in Georgia that are being voted upon today, with big implications. If both seats go to the Democrats, they would control the Senate. Outcomes of the elections may not be known until later this week. The stock market fares better in gridlock, which would be more likely if the Democrats did not control the Senate. The commodity markets would likely get a lift if the Senate is controlled by the Democrats, as government spending would likely increase.

The U.S. dollar index is lower today and not far above Monday’s 2.5-year low in early U.S. trading. The other important outside market sees February Nymex crude oil futures prices higher and trading around $48.50 a barrel. Oil prices hit a nine-month high on Monday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently around 0.93%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the ISM New York report on business, the ISM report on business manufacturing and domestic auto industry sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but a bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart would be confirmed if prices close lower today. A near-term price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,705.00 and then at 3,730.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 3,652.50 and then at 3,625.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but a bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart would be confirmed if prices close lower today. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight record high of 12,727.50 and then at 12,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,600.00 and then at Monday’s low of 12,522.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 173 11/32 and then at 173 24/32. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 172 4/32 and then at 171 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 138.05.5 and then at 138.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 137.26.0 and then at 137.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading and near last week’s two-year high. Bulls are in solid technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the December high of 1.2330 and then at 1.2350. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2265 and then at 1.2200. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $49.00 and then at Monday’s high of $49.83. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $48.00 and then at Monday’s low of $47.18. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are again solidly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading and hit contract highs. Same story: The grain markets bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily charts. The supply and demand fundamentals in the grains continue to favor the bulls, especially a huge appetite from China. Dry weather in South American growing regions is also bullish for corn and soybeans. Speculators are now keenly interested in playing the long side in the grain futures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Gold bulls gain technical power

January 4, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

The Comex gold futures market pushed to a seven-week high to start the new trading year. Bulls are back in firm technical command amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The longer-term weekly and monthly charts are also bullish. Bulls are looking for another good year in 2021 and are starting off on the right foot. Stay tuned!– Jim

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Stock, commodity bulls out of the gate strong to start 2021

January 4, 2021 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, January 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and record highs when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite remains upbeat on this first trading day of the new year. The marketplace continues to look over the horizon at what is hoped will be a better second-half of 2021, in both economic and human health terms. The incoming Biden administration is expected to roll out more economic aid to the public and businesses. Also, Americans began receiving their U.S. government stimulus funds late last week, which gives many struggling Americans a bit of a temporary life line.

A feature in the marketplace Monday is sharp gains in gold and silver prices, with gold notching a seven-week high of $1,941.00, basis February Comex futures. Safe-haven demand amid surging Covid-19 cases in the U.S., Europe and other parts of the world are supporting the precious metals. Also, the specter of rising and possibly problematic price inflation appears to be gaining some steam and boosting the raw commodity sector.

Commodity markets are also getting a lift early this week in part on some notions the U.S. Senatorial elections in Georgia could see the Democrats win a majority in the Senate, which would make the Senate and the Congress in control of the Democrats. Such would suggest higher spending that would also likely help to stoke price inflation. However, many think it is still unlikely both Democratic senatorial candidates will win in Georgia. The vote is Tuesday.

In overnight news, the Euro zone December manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 55.2 versus 53.8 in November, but was a bit below market expectations. A reading above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector.

The U.S. dollar index is lower and hit another 2.5-year low in early U.S. trading. The other important outside market sees February Nymex crude oil futures prices firmer and trading around $49.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently around 0.925%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), construction spending and the global manufacturing PMI.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit a contract and record high in early U.S. trading. A near-term price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight record high of 3,773.25 and then at 3,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,738.25 and then at 3,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit a contract and record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight record high of 12,959.75 and then at 13,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,900.00 and then at the overnight low of 12,825.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 173 8/32 and then at 173 14/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 172 9/32 and then at 172 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 138.03.5 and then at 138.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 137.26.5 and then at 137.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are solidly higher in early U.S. trading and near last week’s two-year high. Bulls are in solid technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the December high of 1.2330 and then at 1.2350. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2249 and then at 1.2200. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a nine-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $49.83 and then at $50.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $48.00 and then at last week’s low of $47.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are solidly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading and hit contract highs. The grain markets bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily charts. This bull run in the grains is a major run and one that only occurs once or twice in a decade. The supply and demand fundamentals in the grains continue to favor the bulls, especially a huge appetite from China. Dry weather in South American growing regions is also bullish for corn and soybeans. On tap Monday morning is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Quieter marketplace as year winds down

December 31, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, December 31–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. Asian shares were mostly up but European shares were pressured by new business restrictions imposed by the U.K. in an effort to thwart still-rising Covid-19 cases. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Look for a quieter marketplace Thursday, on this last trading day of the week, of the month, of the quarter and of the year. Markets are closed for the New Year holiday on Friday.

The highlight of the U.S. trading session will likely be the release of the weekly U.S. jobless claims data, likely to show new claims just north of 800,000.

In overnight news, China’s saw a tenth month in a row of expanding manufacturing growth. The official manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 51.9 in December versus 52.1 in November. China’s non-manufacturing PMI for December came in at 55.7 from 56.4 in November. A reading above 50.0 suggests expansion in the sector.

The U.S. dollar index is lower and hit another 2.5-year low in early U.S. trading. The other important outside market sees February Nymex crude oil futures prices weaker and trading around $48.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently around 0.923%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday is light and includes the weekly jobless claims report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. A near-term price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 3,747.75 and then at 3,775.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,700.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,676.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 12,918.25 and then at 13,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,750.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,655.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 172 30/32 and then at 173 14/32. Shorter-term support lies at 172 10/32 and then at 172 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.00.0 and then at 138.03.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 137.20.0 and then at 137.15.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker on profit taking after hitting a two-year high on Wednesday. Bulls are in solid technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.2330 and then at 1.2350. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 1.2271 and then at 1.2233. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $48.96 and then at the December high of $49.43. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $47.50 and then at $47.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, with corn soybeans and wheat futures hitting new contract and multi-year highs. The grain markets bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily charts. This bull run in the grains is a major run and one that only occurs once or twice in a decade. The supply and demand fundamentals in the grains continue to favor the bulls, especially a huge appetite from China. Dry weather in South American growing regions is also bullish for corn and soybeans. The corn and soybean markets are still over-extended on a short-term technical basis and are due for more corrective pullbacks in their uptrends.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Rare, major bull run in grain futures

December 30, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

The grain markets are on fire! The large speculative “fund” traders on Tuesday hit the accelerator on the long side, not wanting to miss out on what are turning out to be powerful bull market runs that occur only a couple times a decade. There are rumors in the futures markets of Chinese demand for soybeans coming to the U.S. On top of the bullish demand scenario, South American soybean and corn region dry weather is enough of a threat to this year’s crops to temper any aggressive selling. And the charts for corn and soybeans remain fully bullish. Stay tuned!– Jim

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Marketplace continues to look over the horizon

December 30, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, December 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and more record highs when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite remains elevated as market participants are opting to look just over the horizon to see what will likely be strong economic recoveries under way as soon as late spring, and choosing to look beyond the Covid-19 pandemic that appears to be at its peak for infections and deaths in the U.S. and which has forced new business and public restrictions that are still hamstringing economic growth. Colorado has reported the first official U.S. case of the new strain of faster-spreading Covid that has hit the U.K.

Trading volumes are likely to start to die down at mid-week, ahead of the New Year’s Day holiday on Friday, when governments and markets are closed.

The U.S. dollar index is lower and overnight came within a hair of the recent 2.5-year low in early U.S. trading. The other important outside market sees February Nymex crude oil futures prices higher and trading around $48.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently around 0.95%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, advance economic indicators, pending home sales, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and near the record high in early U.S. trading. A near-term price uptrend has been restarted on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 3,747.75 and then at 3,775.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,700.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,676.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and near the another record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 12,918.25 and then at 13,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,808.25 and then at this week’s low of 12,655.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 172 30/32 and then at 173 14/32. Shorter-term support lies at 172 even and then at last week’s low of 171 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 137.31.5 and then at 138.03.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 137.20.0 and then at 137.15.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher and hit a two-year high early today. Bulls are in solid technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2315 and then at the December high of 1.2350. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2271 and then at 1.2233. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $48.96 and then at the December high of $49.43. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $47.50 and then at $47.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on normal, profit-taking corrective pullbacks after solid price gains Monday that saw corn and soybeans hit contract highs. The grain markets bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily charts. The supply and demand fundamentals in the grains continue to favor the bulls, especially a huge appetite from China. Dry weather in South American growing regions is also bullish for corn and soybeans. The corn and soybean markets are still over-extended on a short-term technical basis and are due for more corrective pullbacks in their uptrends.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

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Disclaimer

There is a risk of financial loss in futures and options trading. Futures trading is neither easy nor an easy way to make money. It takes hard work to have success. Please use sound money management when trading futures. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing on this website is intended to be a trading recommendation to buy or sell futures or options. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Readers are solely responsible for how they use the information on this website.

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