Daily Morning Report

Thursday, December 31–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. Asian shares were mostly up but European shares were pressured by new business restrictions imposed by the U.K. in an effort to thwart still-rising Covid-19 cases. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Look for a quieter marketplace Thursday, on this last trading day of the week, of the month, of the quarter and of the year. Markets are closed for the New Year holiday on Friday.

The highlight of the U.S. trading session will likely be the release of the weekly U.S. jobless claims data, likely to show new claims just north of 800,000.

In overnight news, China’s saw a tenth month in a row of expanding manufacturing growth. The official manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 51.9 in December versus 52.1 in November. China’s non-manufacturing PMI for December came in at 55.7 from 56.4 in November. A reading above 50.0 suggests expansion in the sector.

The U.S. dollar index is lower and hit another 2.5-year low in early U.S. trading. The other important outside market sees February Nymex crude oil futures prices weaker and trading around $48.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently around 0.923%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday is light and includes the weekly jobless claims report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. A near-term price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 3,747.75 and then at 3,775.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,700.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,676.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 12,918.25 and then at 13,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,750.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,655.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 172 30/32 and then at 173 14/32. Shorter-term support lies at 172 10/32 and then at 172 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.00.0 and then at 138.03.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 137.20.0 and then at 137.15.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker on profit taking after hitting a two-year high on Wednesday. Bulls are in solid technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.2330 and then at 1.2350. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 1.2271 and then at 1.2233. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $48.96 and then at the December high of $49.43. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $47.50 and then at $47.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, with corn soybeans and wheat futures hitting new contract and multi-year highs. The grain markets bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily charts. This bull run in the grains is a major run and one that only occurs once or twice in a decade. The supply and demand fundamentals in the grains continue to favor the bulls, especially a huge appetite from China. Dry weather in South American growing regions is also bullish for corn and soybeans. The corn and soybean markets are still over-extended on a short-term technical basis and are due for more corrective pullbacks in their uptrends.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, December 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and more record highs when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite remains elevated as market participants are opting to look just over the horizon to see what will likely be strong economic recoveries under way as soon as late spring, and choosing to look beyond the Covid-19 pandemic that appears to be at its peak for infections and deaths in the U.S. and which has forced new business and public restrictions that are still hamstringing economic growth. Colorado has reported the first official U.S. case of the new strain of faster-spreading Covid that has hit the U.K.

Trading volumes are likely to start to die down at mid-week, ahead of the New Year’s Day holiday on Friday, when governments and markets are closed.

The U.S. dollar index is lower and overnight came within a hair of the recent 2.5-year low in early U.S. trading. The other important outside market sees February Nymex crude oil futures prices higher and trading around $48.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently around 0.95%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, advance economic indicators, pending home sales, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and near the record high in early U.S. trading. A near-term price uptrend has been restarted on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 3,747.75 and then at 3,775.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,700.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,676.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and near the another record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 12,918.25 and then at 13,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,808.25 and then at this week’s low of 12,655.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 172 30/32 and then at 173 14/32. Shorter-term support lies at 172 even and then at last week’s low of 171 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 137.31.5 and then at 138.03.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 137.20.0 and then at 137.15.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher and hit a two-year high early today. Bulls are in solid technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2315 and then at the December high of 1.2350. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2271 and then at 1.2233. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $48.96 and then at the December high of $49.43. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $47.50 and then at $47.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on normal, profit-taking corrective pullbacks after solid price gains Monday that saw corn and soybeans hit contract highs. The grain markets bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily charts. The supply and demand fundamentals in the grains continue to favor the bulls, especially a huge appetite from China. Dry weather in South American growing regions is also bullish for corn and soybeans. The corn and soybean markets are still over-extended on a short-term technical basis and are due for more corrective pullbacks in their uptrends.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, December 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and new record highs when the New York day session begins. For the year 2020 the Nasdaq index will gain around 43%, with the S&P 500 gaining around 15%, after it gained 29% in 2019. These numbers underscore how the stock market has really been the only game in town for most investors the past couple years. Easy money from the major central banks of the world during this time has helped propel the global equities markets. Still, many veteran market watchers that have lived through bear markets in stocks wonder when the present bullish and possibly well over-inflated balloon will finally pop.

The stock markets and investor risk appetite this week got a boost from the surprise weekend move by President Trump to sign a Covid-19 aid package for Americans. Then the U.S. House of Representatives on Monday voted to give Americans $2,000 payments instead of the $600 stipulated in the bill signed by Trump. Trump wants the $2,000 payments. Now, it’s up to the Republican-controlled U.S. Senate to agree to the increase, or defy Trump for the first time.

On Monday Covid-19 hospitalizations in the U.S. hit a new record high as the pandemic is still raging, keeping restrictions on businesses and the public in place and new ones being implemented. At present, traders and investors are preferring to focus on the current, major rollout of a Covid vaccine that is likely to tamp down the virus by summertime.

The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. The other important outside market sees February Nymex crude oil futures prices higher and trading around $48.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently around 0.945%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the weekly chain store sales index and the S&P-Core-Logic home price indexes.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit another record high in early U.S. trading. A near-term price uptrend has been restarted on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight record high of 3,747.75 and then at 3,775.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,700.00 and then at Monday’s low of 3,676.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 7.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit another record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight record high of 12,898.75 and then at 13,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,841.25 and then at Monday’s low of 12,655.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 172 30/32 and then at 173 14/32. Shorter-term support lies at 172 even and then at last week’s low of 171 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 137.31.5 and then at 138.03.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 137.20.0 and then at 137.15.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher early today. Bulls are in solid technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2282 and then at the December high of 1.2303. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2233 and then at 1.2200. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $48.96 and then at the December high of $49.43. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $47.50 and then at $47.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. The grain markets bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily charts. Not much new heading into the new year. The supply and demand fundamentals in the grains continue to favor the bulls. Dry weather in South American growing regions is also bullish for corn and soybeans. The corn and soybean markets are still over-extended on a short-term technical basis and are due for normal corrective pullbacks in their uptrends.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, December 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and new record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes when the New York day session begins. The marketplace has been buoyed by President Trump in a surprise move over the weekend signing the Covid-19 aid bill that the U.S. Congress agreed upon just before Christmas. The bill provides direct payments to Americans and also loans to U.S. businesses.

Traders and investors are also more upbeat as Covid vaccines continued to be rolled out in the U.S. and Europe. Still the enthusiasm is tempered by the pandemic that continues to be out of control in the U.S., Europe and other parts of the world. Some health experts are saying January will be the worst month yet, as far as the human toll. Restrictions on many businesses in many locations remain in place and may get tighter in January.

The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The other important outside market sees February Nymex crude oil futures prices firmer and trading around $48.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently around 0.956%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit a record high in early U.S. trading. A near-term price uptrend has been restarted on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight record high of 3,726.50 and then at 3,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,700.00 and then at the overnight low of 3,676.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit a record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight record high of 12,798.75 and then at 12,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,655.25 and then at 12,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 173 even and then at 173 14/32. Shorter-term support lies at 172 even and then at last week’s low of 171 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 137.30.5 and then at 138.03.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 137.20.0 and then at 137.15.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are firmer early today. Bulls are in solid technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2278 and then at the December high of 1.2303. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.2185 and then at last week’s low of 1.2158. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $48.86 and then at the December high of $49.43. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $48.00 and then at the overnight low of $47.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. The grain markets bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily charts. The supply and demand fundamentals in the grains continue to favor the bulls. Dry weather in South American growing regions is also bullish for corn and soybeans. The grain markets are getting over-extended on a short-term technical basis and are soon due for normal corrective pullbacks in their uptrends. On tap Monday is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff