Daily Morning Report

Friday, October 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly down overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session solidly lower. It’s a risk-off trading day Friday, on this last trading day of the week and of the month. Some mostly as-expected but still uninspiring high-technology stocks’ earnings reports this week, rising Covid-19 infections in major industrialized countries that are prompting new restrictions on businesses, and the upcoming U.S. elections have traders and investors pulling in their horns today. Risk aversion could become keener on Monday and Tuesday, as next Tuesday’s U.S. elections will be the major focus of the global marketplace next week. Several global health officials have told the public in the Northern Hemisphere to expect a “dark winter,” with other officials warning Covid’s grip on the world, including its damaging economic implications, won’t abate until 2022.

In overnight news, Germany, the workhorse of the European Union, saw its GDP rise a better-than-expected 8.2% in the third quarter from the second quarter, but still down 4.3%, year-on-year.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker on a mild corrective pullback after strong gains this week that pushed the index to a four-week high on Thursday. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower early today and hit a 4.5-month low on Thursday, presently trading around $36.00 a barrel. The breakdown in crude oil prices this week, which produced serious near-term technical damage on the charts, is a significantly bearish omen for the entire raw commodity sector. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is 0.82% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, the employment cost index, the ISM Chicago business survey, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and hit a five-week low overnight. Bulls have lost their near-term chart advantage as a big and bearish double-top reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,300.00 and then at Thursday’s high of 3,333.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,226.00 and then at 3,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,300.00 and then at 11,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,039.50 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 173 19/32 and then at 174 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 172 20/32 and then at 172 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.19.5 and then at 138.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 138.11.0 and then at the October low of 138.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded this week. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1705 and then at Thursday’s high of 1.1769. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1661 and then at the September low of 1.1630. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trasding. Prices Thursday hit a 4.5-month low. Prices this week have seen a bearish downside “breakout” from a sideways trading range this week. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is  below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $37.00 and then at Thursday’s high of $37.76. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $36.00 and then at this week’s low of $34.92. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls are working to stabilize the grain markets after this week’s solid losses. Risk-off attitudes and profit taking from recent gains have hit the grain futures. Grain market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage as price uptrends are still in place on the daily charts. However, the big breakdown in the crude oil market this week is a significantly bearish omen for all raw commodity markets, including the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, October 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session firmer on a corrective bounce from Wednesday’s sharp losses. More and more, traders and investors are taking a very dim view of the Covid-19 prospects over the coming winter. Europe is on a worse trajectory than the U.S., but health experts say the U.S. is about four weeks behind Europe. France is on complete lockdown for the second time this year, while other European countries are in varying degrees of increasing business shutdowns. Concerns about the approaching U.S. presidential election and the transfer of power if Joe Biden wins are also in the marketplace.

It’s a very busy day for U.S. corporate earnings, including heavyweights Apple, Alphabet, Facebook, Amazon and Twitter.

The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan both met Thursday. The BOJ kept its monetary policy unchanged. The ECB meeting was still in progress as of this writing.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index firmer as the greenback bulls are having a good week. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a 4.5-month low, trading around $35.85 a barrel. The breakdown in crude oil prices this week, which produced serious technical damage on the charts, is a significantly bearish omen for the entire raw commodity sector. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is 0.78% today.

There is important U.S. economic data due for release Thursday including the weekly jobless claims report, which is forecast to show a rise of around 780,000 claims. The advance third-quarter GDP estimate is forecast up a record 32% from the second quarter. Pending home sales for September are seen up 3.0%.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on an upside correction from Wednesday’s steep losses. Bulls have lost their near-term chart advantage as a big and bearish double-top reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,310.75 and then at 3,350.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,260.75 and then at 3,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on a corrective bounce. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,296.00 and then at 11,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,123.75 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls are having a good week. More gain this week would suggest a market bottom is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 174 16/32 and then at this week’s high of 174 29/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 173 25/32 and then at 173 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 139.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 139.03.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 138.22.0 and then at 138.18.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading this week. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1769 and then at 1.1800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1702 and then at 1.1650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are down and hit a 4.5-month low in early U.S. trading. Prices have seen a bearish downside “breakout” from a sideways trading range this week. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is  below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $37.00 and then at the overnight high of $37.76. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $35.76 and then at $35.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are lower again in early U.S. pre-market trading. Risk-off attitudes and profit taking from recent gains are hitting the grain futures. Grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as price uptrends are still in place on the daily charts. However, the big breakdown in the crude oil market this week is a bearish omen for all raw commodity markets, including the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, October 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session solidly down. Rising Covid-19 pandemic infections in the U.S. and Europe, as well as other parts of the world, are fanning worries new lockdowns are coming this winter, even though they may not be as extreme as seen last spring. Europe is already starting to ramp up its quarantine of some business activities. Concerns about the U.S. presidential election and the transfer of power if Joe Biden wins are also in the marketplace. No new U.S. government financial stimulus package for American citizens is in sight and that’s also adding to downbeat attitudes in the stock markets.

Gold prices are lower at mid-week, despite the keener risk aversion in the marketplace. It appears shorter-term gold futures traders are paying more attention to the daily movements of the U.S. dollar index (trading in an inverse relationship) than the safe-haven trade.

Major central bank monetary policy meetings this week see the Bank of Canada Wednesday, and European Central Bank and Bank of Japan both meeting Thursday. Deflation has become a bigger concern in Europe.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower and trading around $38.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is 0.76% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the advance economic indicators report, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading fast and a big and bearish double-top reversal pattern is forming on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,370.25 and then at Tuesday’s high of 3,410.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,330.75 and then at 3,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,566.75 and then at this week’s high of 11,695.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,343.25 and then at 11,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 175 even and then at 175 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 174 9/32 and then at 174 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 139.06.0 and then at 139.12.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 138.27.0 and then at 138.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1801 and then at Tuesday’s high of 1.1851. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1725 and then at the October low of 1.1702. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are solidly down and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is  below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $39.01 and then at this week’s high of $39.83. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $37.50 and then at the October low of $36.93. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are solidly lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Risk-off attitudes and profit taking from recent gains are hitting the grain futures at mid-week. Grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as price uptrends are still in place on the daily charts.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, October 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session slightly up. The global marketplace remains jittery as Covid-19 pandemic infections are on the rise in much of the world, including Europe and the U.S. There are worries new lockdowns are coming this winter, even though they may not be as extreme as seen last spring. Europe is already starting to ramp up its quarantine of some business activities. No vaccine for the virus is close to being released for general distribution.

With just one week to go before the U.S. elections, many markets could pause until after the election results are in. Many traders will want to step away from the markets, or take some risk off the table, due to the still highly uncertain outcome of the presidential election.

Major central bank monetary policy meetings this week see the Bank of Canada Wednesday, and European Central Bank and Bank of Japan both meeting Thursday. Deflation has become a bigger concern in Europe.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $39.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is 0.8% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, durable goods orders, the monthly house price index, the S&P Core Login housing indexes, the Richmond Fed business survey, and the consumer confidence index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading as a big and bearish double-top reversal pattern could be forming on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 3,446.25 and then at last Friday’s high of 3,562.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 3,356.00 and then at 3,325.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 11,695.50 and then at 11,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 11,343.25 and then at 11,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears are in near-term control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 173 30/32 and then at 174 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 173 even and then at Monday’s low of 172 22/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 138.23.0 and then at 138.28.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 138.11.0 and then at last week’s low of 138.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls are still working on a price uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.1872 and then at last week’s high of 1.1894. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1800 and then at 1.1773. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are firmer on short covering after hitting a three-week low on Monday. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $39.74 and then at $40.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $38.28 and then at $38.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain market bulls still have solid technical control amid uptrends firmly in place on the charts. There are no early technical clues to suggest the corn, soybean or wheat markets are near their tops.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff