Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, October 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session solidly down. Rising Covid-19 pandemic infections in the U.S. and Europe, as well as other parts of the world, are fanning worries new lockdowns are coming this winter, even though they may not be as extreme as seen last spring. Europe is already starting to ramp up its quarantine of some business activities. Concerns about the U.S. presidential election and the transfer of power if Joe Biden wins are also in the marketplace. No new U.S. government financial stimulus package for American citizens is in sight and that’s also adding to downbeat attitudes in the stock markets.

Gold prices are lower at mid-week, despite the keener risk aversion in the marketplace. It appears shorter-term gold futures traders are paying more attention to the daily movements of the U.S. dollar index (trading in an inverse relationship) than the safe-haven trade.

Major central bank monetary policy meetings this week see the Bank of Canada Wednesday, and European Central Bank and Bank of Japan both meeting Thursday. Deflation has become a bigger concern in Europe.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower and trading around $38.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is 0.76% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the advance economic indicators report, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading fast and a big and bearish double-top reversal pattern is forming on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,370.25 and then at Tuesday’s high of 3,410.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,330.75 and then at 3,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,566.75 and then at this week’s high of 11,695.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,343.25 and then at 11,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 175 even and then at 175 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 174 9/32 and then at 174 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 139.06.0 and then at 139.12.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 138.27.0 and then at 138.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1801 and then at Tuesday’s high of 1.1851. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1725 and then at the October low of 1.1702. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are solidly down and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is  below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $39.01 and then at this week’s high of $39.83. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $37.50 and then at the October low of $36.93. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are solidly lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Risk-off attitudes and profit taking from recent gains are hitting the grain futures at mid-week. Grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as price uptrends are still in place on the daily charts.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, October 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session slightly up. The global marketplace remains jittery as Covid-19 pandemic infections are on the rise in much of the world, including Europe and the U.S. There are worries new lockdowns are coming this winter, even though they may not be as extreme as seen last spring. Europe is already starting to ramp up its quarantine of some business activities. No vaccine for the virus is close to being released for general distribution.

With just one week to go before the U.S. elections, many markets could pause until after the election results are in. Many traders will want to step away from the markets, or take some risk off the table, due to the still highly uncertain outcome of the presidential election.

Major central bank monetary policy meetings this week see the Bank of Canada Wednesday, and European Central Bank and Bank of Japan both meeting Thursday. Deflation has become a bigger concern in Europe.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $39.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is 0.8% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, durable goods orders, the monthly house price index, the S&P Core Login housing indexes, the Richmond Fed business survey, and the consumer confidence index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading as a big and bearish double-top reversal pattern could be forming on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 3,446.25 and then at last Friday’s high of 3,562.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 3,356.00 and then at 3,325.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 11,695.50 and then at 11,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 11,343.25 and then at 11,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears are in near-term control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 173 30/32 and then at 174 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 173 even and then at Monday’s low of 172 22/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 138.23.0 and then at 138.28.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 138.11.0 and then at last week’s low of 138.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls are still working on a price uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.1872 and then at last week’s high of 1.1894. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1800 and then at 1.1773. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are firmer on short covering after hitting a three-week low on Monday. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $39.74 and then at $40.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $38.28 and then at $38.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain market bulls still have solid technical control amid uptrends firmly in place on the charts. There are no early technical clues to suggest the corn, soybean or wheat markets are near their tops.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, October 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly down overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session lower. Trader and investor attitudes are more downbeat to start the trading week, as the Covid-19 pandemic infections are on the rise in much of the world, including Europe and the U.S. Worries are increasing the new lockdowns are coming this winter, even though they may not be as extreme as seen last spring.

Recent Covid-19 stimulus package discussions between U.S. congressional Democrats and Republicans have failed to produce a deal, just a bit more than a week before the U.S.  elections. That’s also a negative for the stock markets.

Major central bank monetary policy meetings this week see the Bank of Canada Wednesday, and European Central Bank and Bank of Japan both meeting Thursday. Deflation has become a bigger concern in Europe.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $39.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is 0.81% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index, new residential sales, and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading as a big and bearish double-top reversal pattern could be forming on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,446.25 and then at last Friday’s high of 3,562.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders last week’s low of 3,402.50 and then at 3,375.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,640.00 and then at 11,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 11,511.00 and then at 11,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a 4.5-month low last week. Bears are in near-term control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 173 20/32 and then at 174 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 172 22/32 and then at 172 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a four-month low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.19.5 and then at 138.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 138.11.0 and then at last week’s low of 138.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are still working on a price uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1872 and then at last week’s high of 1.1894. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 1.1799 and then at 1.1773. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $39.74 and then at $40.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $38.42 and then at $38.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on some profit taking from recent gains. Grain market bulls still have solid technical control amid strong uptrends in place on the charts. On tap today will be USDA weekly export inspections and weekly USDA crop progress data.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, October 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to slightly up overnight, with Asian shares mixed and European shares mostly firmer. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session slightly higher. The stock indexes are drifting at present and such will likely continue to be the case until after the U.S. elections in early November.

Markets showed little reaction to Thursday evening’s U.S. presidential debate, which was more civil than the first one. No candidate made any major gaffe and most felt there was no big winner in the debate.

Covid-19 stimulus package discussions between U.S. congressional Democrats and Republicans continue. While a package at some point is likely, it very likely won’t come before the election in early November.

In overnight news, the Euro zone composite purchasing managers index (PMI) for October came in at 49.4 versus 50.4 in September. The October number was just slightly above market expectations.

In other news, Reuters today reported world central banks became net sellers of gold for first time in a decade in the third quarter. The report said gold demand is down 30%, year-on-year, mostly due to the Covid-19-induced damage to the world economies. Jewelry fabrication remained the worst impacted sector.  

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $40.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is 0.84% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. flash manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), and the flash services PMI.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,496.50 and then at the October high of 3,541.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at the overnight low of 3,437.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,402.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 11,779.25 and then at this week’s high of 11,950.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,511.00 and then at 11,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a 4.5-month low on Thursday. Bears are in near-term control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 172 11/32 and then at 173 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 171 25/32 and then at 171 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a four-month low Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.13.0 and then at Thursday’s high of 138.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 138.05.0 and then at 138.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are firmer. Bulls are working on a price uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1894 and then at 1.1941. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1799 and then at 1.1773. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Trading remains choppy. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $41.00 and then at this week’s high of $41.90. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $39.71 and then at $39.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain market bulls remain in solid technical control amid strong uptrends in place on the charts. There are no early clues to suggest that market tops are close at hand. The path of least resistance for prices remains sideways to higher.     

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff