Daily Morning Report

Monday, November 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session strongly higher. News just out that Pfizer has announced a Covid-19 vaccine trial of over 44,000 subjects that is 90% effective gave the stock markets a solid boost from earlier overnight gains. While the stock market is soaring, the bond market sees yields pushing solidly up and gold prices dropping. It seems this could finally be the good news the global marketplace has been awaiting for months—during a grim period when the pandemic appears to be worsening in places like the U.S. and Europe.

The marketplace is also calmer to start the trading week. Joe Biden was declared the winner of the U.S. presidential election on Saturday, and it appears his margin of victory is growing by the day, as the ballot-counting continues. The marketplace still reckons control of the U.S. Congress will be split, with Democrats having the majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate tilting slightly to the Republicans—even though there is a chance the Democrats could take the Senate due to still-contested Senate seats. Stock markets tend to like gridlock and no major shifts in fiscal policy.

While the specter of more U.S. government regulation of businesses under a Biden administration is a negative for the stock market, that is being offset by notions Biden will be a more stable force on the U.S. global policy front. The Chinese yuan hit a more-than-two-year high Monday on ideas the U.S.-China relations will improve under Biden.

The U.S. dollar index is near steady early today after hitting a nine-week low overnight. The other important outside market sees crude oil prices sharply higher and trading around $40.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is currently fetching 0.8%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the employment trends index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are sharply higher and hit a new contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at today’s contract high of 3,651.25 and then at 3,675.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,541.00 and then at the overnight low of 3,515.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 8.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are sharply higher and hit a nine-week high in early U.S> trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the September high of 12,444.75 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,122.00 and then at 11,868.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are sharply lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have regained the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 172 even and then at 173 even. Shorter-term support lies at the November low of 170 7/32 and then at 170 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are sharply down in early U.S. trading. Bears have regained technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 138.00.0 and then at 138.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the November low of 137.20.5 and then at 137.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher and hit a seven-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1909 and then at 1.1950. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1868 and then at 1.1800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $40.82 and then at $41.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $39.00 and then at $38.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, on the Covid-19 vaccine news. Much better risk appetite in the marketplace is fueling upside action in the grains today. The grain market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place in all three markets.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, November 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session lower on corrective pullbacks from this week’s strong gains. The U.S. presidential election is looking increasingly likely that Joe Biden will unseat President Trump. The balance of the U.S. Senate is still up in the air, with the possibility the Democrats could still gain a slim majority. Right after the elections it was assumed by most the Republicans would control the Senate. Now, with the chance the Democrats could gain control, the U.S. stock market bulls are a bit more concerned. Still, Friday morning’s price pressure on the stock indexes is so far just a normal correction from the recent gains.

On tap Friday morning is the U.S. employment situation report for October from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen up 530,000 and the unemployment rate is seen at 7.7% versus 7.9% seen in September.

The gold market has posted a solid rally in the wake of the U.S. elections, with prices hitting a six-week high overnight, mostly boosted by the depreciating value of the U.S. dollar but also likely from safe-haven demand on worries about the peaceful transfer of power in the U.S., should Biden win the presidential election, and on the worsening Covid-19 situation in the U.S. and Europe. Trump gave a short speech Thursday night trying to cast doubt on the U.S. voting system, implying fraud. And U.S. Covid cases hit a record Thursday. Dr. Scott Gottlieb said Friday morning on CNBC the U.S. this winter will find “a raging epidemic.” A Wall Street Journal story Friday is headlined, “Fed Sees Virus Imperiling Economy,” referring to the just-concluded FOMC meeting in which the Federal Reserve warned that Covid-19 is still posing serious risks for the U.S. economy.

The U.S. dollar index is lower again today, hit a nine-week low, and has sold off sharply in the wake of the U.S. election. The other important outside market sees crude oil prices lower and trading around $37.50 a barrel. The oil market is seeing a corrective pullback Friday after solid gains seen earlier this week. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is currently fetching 0.77%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the consumer credit report and monthly wholesale trade.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are sharply lower on a normal downside correction from this week’s good gains. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and prices are still in striking range of hitting new highs. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,522.50 and then at the October high of 3,541.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 3,428.25 and then at 3,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower on a normal corrective pullback after hitting a three-week high Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,119.50 and then at the October high of 12,249.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 11,771.25 and then at 11,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices this week have scored a big and bullish reversal up, which is a solid clue that a market bottom is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 174 31/32 and then at this week’s high of 175 27/32. Shorter-term support lies at Thursday’s low of 173 30/32 and then at 173 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices this week scored a big and bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart, to suggest a near-term bottom is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.01.0 and then at this week’s high of 139.08.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday’s low of 138.24.5 and then at 138.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the October high of 1.1894 and then at 1.1950. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1804 and then at 1.1750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from this week’s good gains. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $38.61 and then at this week’s high of $39.25. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $37.33 and then at $37.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls are having a very good week. Better risk appetite in the marketplace is fueling upside action in the grains. The grain market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place in all three markets.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Asian and European stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also set to open the New York day session sharply higher. The marketplace sees better risk appetite late this week, in the wake of the U.S. elections. While it’s still uncertain who will be the U.S. president in January (although Biden appears most likely to be, at present), a near certainty is that there will be gridlock in the U.S. Congress for at least the next two years. That’s good for stock and financial markets because no major, radical legislation would occur with a split U.S. Congress that will likely see the Republicans control the Senate and the Democrats control the House of Representatives.

The “inflation trade” that had gained steam in the weeks heading into the U.S. elections is now being unwound. Polls forecasting a Democratic sweep had many market watchers reckoning huge government spending programs that would help to ignite inflation. That won’t be the case now, and U.S. Treasury yields are dropping like a rock. The yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury note is presently 0.74%.

Meantime, the U.S. dollar index has sold off sharply in the wake of the election. The other important outside market sees crude oil prices a bit weaker and trading around $39.00 a barrel. Oil market bulls have had a very good week, to suggest at least sideways and choppy price action for that market in the near term.

In overnight news, the Bank of England Thursday said it will ramp up its monetary stimulus measures as the U.K. grapples with increasing lockdowns as Covid-19 infections continue to rise.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that started Wednesday morning on Thursday afternoon concludes with a statement on U.S. monetary policy. Fed Chairman Powell will also hold a press conference Thursday afternoon. No major changes in U.S. monetary policy are expected, but as usual the marketplace will be looking for guidance on future actions from the Fed.

Friday the U.S. employment situation report for October from the Labor Department is out. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen up 530,000 and the unemployment rate is seen at 7.7% versus 7.9% seen in September.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday include the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, preliminary productivity and costs, and the monthly chain store sales index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are sharply higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and are in striking range of hitting new highs. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,508.50 and then at the October high of 3,541.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,450.00 and then at the overnight low of 3,428.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 7.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are sharply higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,119.50 and then at the October high of 12,249.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,900.00 and then at the overnight low of 11,771.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Prices this week have scored a big and bullish reversal up, which is a solid clue that a market bottom is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 175 27/32 and then at 176 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 174 19/32 and then at 174 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Prices this week scored a big and bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart, to suggest a near-term bottom is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.08.5 and then at 139.14.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 138.30.5 and then at 138.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are still bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1850 and then at the October high of 1.18945. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1800 and then at 1.1750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading but have made a very strong recovery from Monday’s low of $33.64, to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $39.25 and then at $40.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $38.27 and then at $38.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are solidly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Better risk appetite in the marketplace is fueling upside action in the grains. The grain market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place in all three markets. On tap today will be weekly USDA export sales.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, November 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also set to open the New York day session mixed. The U.S. presidential election is a cliffhanger, with President Trump once again performing much better than the polls were forecasting. It could be days before a final result is seen and a winner declared. Trump has already said he will challenge the results if he loses. Markets could remain in limbo and languish until a winner is declared. Meantime, the Republicans appear to have kept control of the U.S. Senate, while the Democrats kept control of the House of Representatives.

Gold prices are solidly lower at mid-week, amid the so-far orderly U.S. elections and despite no winner yet in the race for president. Despite the very tight presidential race that could take days, or longer, to determine a winner, traders and investors are presently not exhibiting keen risk aversion Wednesday. The marketplace was somewhat assuaged by the fact that so far there has been no major civil unrest in the U.S. streets.

In other overnight news, the Euro zone September producer price index rose 0.3% from August and was down 2.4%, year-on-year. There are still no signs on the horizon of problematic inflation in the major world economies, even though many economists and analysts have been predicting such will occur at some point.

It’s also a week in which the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets starting Wednesday morning and on Thursday afternoon issues a statement on U.S. monetary policy. Fed Chairman Powell will also hold a press conference Thursday afternoon. No major changes in U.S. monetary policy are expected, but the marketplace will be looking for guidance on future actions from the Fed.

And on Friday the U.S. employment situation report for October from the Labor Department is out. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen up 530,000 and the unemployment rate is seen at 7.7% versus 7.9% seen in September.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are higher early today and presently trading around $38.50 a barrel. Crude oil has seen a strong rebound after hitting a five-month low Monday. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is 0.78% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the international trade report, the U.S. services PMI, the ISM report on business services, the global services PMI, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,400.00 and then at the overnight high of 3,432.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,350.00 and then at the overnight low of 3,319.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen 11,600.00 and then at the overnight high of 11,768.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,350.00 and then at the overnight low of 11,230.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are sharply higher in early U.S. trading, and in a massive daily trading range, after hitting a contract low overnight. Prices today have scored a big and bullish “key reversal” up, which is a solid clue that a market bottom is now in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 174 28/32 and then at 175 even. Shorter-term support lies at 173 even and then at 172 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher after hitting a five-month low in early U.S. trading. Prices are scoring a big and bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.30.0 and then at last week’s high of 139.03.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 138.16.0 and then at 138.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a 3.5-month low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are still bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1782 and then at 1.1800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1650 and then at the overnight low of 1.1612. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading and have made a very strong recovery from Monday’s low of $33.64, to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are still bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is  below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $39.00 and then at $40.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $38.00 and then at the overnight low of $37.26. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Like most other markets at mid-week, the grains are pausing to see how the U.S. presidential election turns out. The grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place in all three markets.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff