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Daily Morning Report

Marketplace still mostly upbeat despite raging Covid

November 11, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, November 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed but mostly up overnight, while U.S. stock indexes are higher ahead of the New York day session. Monday’s news that Pfizer has produced a successful vaccine for Covid-19 has been followed by other firms saying they are also close to doing so. Russia has now also come out and claimed it has a vaccine that is 92% effective. The marketplace at mid-week is dealing with notions that as soon as the latter half of 2021, economies and humans’ way of life could be almost back to normal. But in the meantime, the coronavirus is rampant in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere. Many states in the U.S. are reporting hospitals are full—and it’s not even winter yet, when conditions are expected to be worse. The spike highs in the U.S. stock indexes Monday, on the initial euphoria surrounding a successful vaccine, could well be market tops that won’t get taken out any time soon.

U.S. Treasury bond and note yields have risen to eight-month highs this week, on the prospects for a solid U.S. economic recovery in 2021. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently fetching 0.96%. The U.S. government and U.S. Treasury market are closed Wednesday for the Veterans Day holiday.

The U.S. dollar index is higher early today on a corrective bounce after hitting a nine-week low Monday. The other important outside market sees crude oil prices higher, hitting a nine-week high, and trading around $42.75 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday is light and includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey. The U.S. government is closed today for Veterans Day.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but Monday’s low-range close after spiking higher created a bearish buying “exhaustion tail” on the daily bar chart, suggesting a near-term top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,600.00 and then at 3,625.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,531.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 3,506.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but Monday’s low-range close after spiking higher created a bearish buying “exhaustion tail” on the daily bar chart. There is also the specter of a bearish double-top reversal on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 11,901.50 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,575.25 and then at Tuesday’s low of 11,503.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and hit a contract low overnight. Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 170 13/32 and then at 171 even. Shorter-term support lies at today’s contract low of 169 16/32 and then at 169 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker and hit a five-month low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 137.17.5 and then at 137.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 137.08.0 and then at 137.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1841 and then at 1.1894. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1770 and then at 1.1750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a nine-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have firm near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $43.06 and then at $44.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $42.00 and then at the overnight low of $41.45. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.6

GRAINS

US grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, on follow-through strength from good gains posted Tuesday following a bullish USDA supply and demand report. Corn and soybean futures hit new for-the-move highs. The Covid-19 vaccine news has boosted demand hopes for the grains. The grain market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place in all three markets. There are no early clues to suggest the grain markets are close to topping out.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

U.S. Treasury yields on the rise

November 10, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

HTML clipboard See on the daily chart for December U.S. Treasury 10-year note futures that prices have sold off sharply just recently (rising yields), and took a big downside hit Monday on the upbeat news of a successful Covid-19 vaccine. Rising bond yields (lower futures prices) suggest there is optimism for a recovery U.S. and global economy sooner now that a vaccine will likely be available in the coming months. One caveat: Rising bond yields could be a precursor to rising inflation in the coming months. Stay tuned!– Jim

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Markets Tuesday assessing vaccine, dark winter ahead

November 10, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, November 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up overnight, whiled U.S. stock indexes are also mixed to firmer ahead of the New York day session. The marketplace euphoria is not quite as strong Tuesday, following Monday’s news that a successful vaccine has been found for Covid-19. While that news is certainly a bright light in a dark period for the world, the markets on Tuesday are realizing there is still a very rough patch that lies ahead in dealing with the pandemic, both for major economies and human health.

The gold market has rebounded a bit from Monday’s strong losses that were the worst in seven years and pushed prices to nine-week lows. Gold market bulls on Tuesday are focusing more on the economic impact of record-setting monetary stimulus measures that have been enacted by central banks over the past six months, and probably more stimulus in the coming months. This scenario seems to be inviting some serious price inflation down the road—especially as recovering major world economies shift into higher gears in the coming months.

U.S. Treasury bond and note yields have risen to eight-month highs this week, on the prospects for a solid U.S. economic recovery in 2021. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is currently fetching 0.94%.

The U.S. dollar index is higher early today on a corrective bounce after hitting a nine-week low Monday. The other important outside market sees crude oil prices higher and trading around $40.50 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady after hitting a new contract and record high on Monday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but Monday’s low-range close after spiking higher created a bearish buying “exhaustion tail” on the daily bar chart.

The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,562.75 and then at 3,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,511.25 and then at 3,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a nine-week high Monday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but Monday’s low-range close after spiking higher created a bearish buying “exhaustion tail” on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at overnight high of 11,901.50 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,553.00 and then at 11,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a multi-month low Monday. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 171 14/32 and then at 172 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 169 29/32 and then at 169 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 137.29.5 and then at 138.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 137.17.0 and then at this week’s low of 137.13.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1853 and then at 1.1900. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1788 and then at 1.1750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $41.33 and then at $42.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $40.00 and then at the overnight low of $39.41. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, as the Covid-19 vaccine news has boosted demand hopes for the grains. The grain market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place in all three markets. On tap today is the monthly USDA supply and demand report, which is expected to favor the bulls, overall.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Successful Covid vaccine rallies stock markets

November 9, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, November 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session strongly higher. News just out that Pfizer has announced a Covid-19 vaccine trial of over 44,000 subjects that is 90% effective gave the stock markets a solid boost from earlier overnight gains. While the stock market is soaring, the bond market sees yields pushing solidly up and gold prices dropping. It seems this could finally be the good news the global marketplace has been awaiting for months—during a grim period when the pandemic appears to be worsening in places like the U.S. and Europe.

The marketplace is also calmer to start the trading week. Joe Biden was declared the winner of the U.S. presidential election on Saturday, and it appears his margin of victory is growing by the day, as the ballot-counting continues. The marketplace still reckons control of the U.S. Congress will be split, with Democrats having the majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate tilting slightly to the Republicans—even though there is a chance the Democrats could take the Senate due to still-contested Senate seats. Stock markets tend to like gridlock and no major shifts in fiscal policy.

While the specter of more U.S. government regulation of businesses under a Biden administration is a negative for the stock market, that is being offset by notions Biden will be a more stable force on the U.S. global policy front. The Chinese yuan hit a more-than-two-year high Monday on ideas the U.S.-China relations will improve under Biden.

The U.S. dollar index is near steady early today after hitting a nine-week low overnight. The other important outside market sees crude oil prices sharply higher and trading around $40.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is currently fetching 0.8%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the employment trends index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are sharply higher and hit a new contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at today’s contract high of 3,651.25 and then at 3,675.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,541.00 and then at the overnight low of 3,515.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 8.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are sharply higher and hit a nine-week high in early U.S> trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the September high of 12,444.75 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,122.00 and then at 11,868.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are sharply lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have regained the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 172 even and then at 173 even. Shorter-term support lies at the November low of 170 7/32 and then at 170 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are sharply down in early U.S. trading. Bears have regained technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 138.00.0 and then at 138.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the November low of 137.20.5 and then at 137.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher and hit a seven-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1909 and then at 1.1950. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1868 and then at 1.1800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $40.82 and then at $41.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $39.00 and then at $38.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, on the Covid-19 vaccine news. Much better risk appetite in the marketplace is fueling upside action in the grains today. The grain market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place in all three markets.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Stock Markets pause ahead of uncertain weekend

November 6, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, November 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session lower on corrective pullbacks from this week’s strong gains. The U.S. presidential election is looking increasingly likely that Joe Biden will unseat President Trump. The balance of the U.S. Senate is still up in the air, with the possibility the Democrats could still gain a slim majority. Right after the elections it was assumed by most the Republicans would control the Senate. Now, with the chance the Democrats could gain control, the U.S. stock market bulls are a bit more concerned. Still, Friday morning’s price pressure on the stock indexes is so far just a normal correction from the recent gains.

On tap Friday morning is the U.S. employment situation report for October from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen up 530,000 and the unemployment rate is seen at 7.7% versus 7.9% seen in September.

The gold market has posted a solid rally in the wake of the U.S. elections, with prices hitting a six-week high overnight, mostly boosted by the depreciating value of the U.S. dollar but also likely from safe-haven demand on worries about the peaceful transfer of power in the U.S., should Biden win the presidential election, and on the worsening Covid-19 situation in the U.S. and Europe. Trump gave a short speech Thursday night trying to cast doubt on the U.S. voting system, implying fraud. And U.S. Covid cases hit a record Thursday. Dr. Scott Gottlieb said Friday morning on CNBC the U.S. this winter will find “a raging epidemic.” A Wall Street Journal story Friday is headlined, “Fed Sees Virus Imperiling Economy,” referring to the just-concluded FOMC meeting in which the Federal Reserve warned that Covid-19 is still posing serious risks for the U.S. economy.

The U.S. dollar index is lower again today, hit a nine-week low, and has sold off sharply in the wake of the U.S. election. The other important outside market sees crude oil prices lower and trading around $37.50 a barrel. The oil market is seeing a corrective pullback Friday after solid gains seen earlier this week. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is currently fetching 0.77%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the consumer credit report and monthly wholesale trade.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are sharply lower on a normal downside correction from this week’s good gains. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and prices are still in striking range of hitting new highs. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,522.50 and then at the October high of 3,541.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 3,428.25 and then at 3,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower on a normal corrective pullback after hitting a three-week high Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,119.50 and then at the October high of 12,249.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 11,771.25 and then at 11,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices this week have scored a big and bullish reversal up, which is a solid clue that a market bottom is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 174 31/32 and then at this week’s high of 175 27/32. Shorter-term support lies at Thursday’s low of 173 30/32 and then at 173 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices this week scored a big and bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart, to suggest a near-term bottom is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.01.0 and then at this week’s high of 139.08.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday’s low of 138.24.5 and then at 138.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the October high of 1.1894 and then at 1.1950. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1804 and then at 1.1750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from this week’s good gains. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $38.61 and then at this week’s high of $39.25. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $37.33 and then at $37.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls are having a very good week. Better risk appetite in the marketplace is fueling upside action in the grains. The grain market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place in all three markets.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

The “inflation trade” fizzles

November 5, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

The “inflation trade” that had gained steam in the weeks heading into the U.S. elections is now being unwound. Polls forecasting a Democratic sweep had many market watchers reckoning huge government spending programs that would help to ignite inflation. That won’t be the case now, and U.S. Treasury yields are dropping like a rock. The yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury note is presently 0.74% Thursday morning. See on the daily chart for December U.S. Treasury bond futures that prices are rallying strongly, including producing a big and bullish “outside day” up on the chart Wednesday, to suggest a market bottom is in place and that prices are likely to rise further. Stay tuned!– Jim

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

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There is a risk of financial loss in futures and options trading. Futures trading is neither easy nor an easy way to make money. It takes hard work to have success. Please use sound money management when trading futures. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing on this website is intended to be a trading recommendation to buy or sell futures or options. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Readers are solely responsible for how they use the information on this website.

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