Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, November 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session solidly higher. Today is the day—arguably the most contentious U.S. presidential election in U.S. history is at hand in a bitterly divided nation. So far this week the stock and financial markets are not showing keen risk aversion. Gold is seeing a bit of safe-haven demand. Contender Joe Biden has a sizeable lead over President Donald Trump in most polls. However, the polls were wrong in the last U.S. presidential election in 2016. Some businesses in some cities are boarding up their windows in case of civil unrest following the elections. There are so many uncertainties regarding the election results and how the American public and even the standing U.S. government reacts in the aftermath of the voting results. It is a bit surprising to this longtime market watcher that the marketplace presently appears so calm and is not exhibiting much risk aversion.

The second big market element is the pandemic. Covid-19 cases continue to rise in the U.S. and Europe, with the U.K. and France locking down many businesses. U.S. Covid-19 cases are hitting daily records, with some health experts saying the U.S. will experience a “dark winter.”

In overnight news, Australia’s central bank cut its key interest rate by 0.15%, to 0.1%.

It’s also a week in which the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets starting Wednesday and on Thursday issues a statement on U.S. monetary policy. Fed Chairman Powell will also hold a press conference Thursday afternoon. No major changes in U.S. monetary policy are expected, but the marketplace will be looking for guidance on future actions from the Fed.

And on Friday the U.S. employment situation report for October from the Labor Department is out. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen up 530,000 and the unemployment rate is seen at 7.7% versus 7.9% seen in September.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher early today and presently trading around $38.00 a barrel. Crude oil is seeing a strong rebound after hitting a five-month low Monday. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is 0.87% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the ISM New York report on business, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, and domestic auto industry sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading, on more short covering and bargain hunting after hitting a five-week low last Friday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,370.00 and then at 3,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,301.25 and then at this week’s low of 3,243.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher on more short covering and bargain hunting after hitting a five-week low last Friday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last Friday’s high of 11,281.25 and then at 11,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 10,942.25 and then at 10,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 172 28/32 and then at 173 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 171 29/32 and then at the October low of 171 22/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a five-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.11.0 and then at 138.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 138.02.5 and then at 138.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are solidly up in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a five-week low Monday. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1729 and then at 1.1769. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1700 and then at the overnight low of 1.1648. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading and have made a very strong recovery from Monday’s low of $33.64, to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are still bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is  below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $38.30 and then at $39.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $37.00 and then at the overnight low of $36.57. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are solidly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, on short covering and bargain hunting. The strongly rebounding crude oil market and less risk aversion in the commodity markets, on this day, are also bullish for grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, November 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight, boosted by upbeat purchasing managers reports out of Asia and Europe. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session solidly higher. It’s a huge trading week as the U.S. election is Tuesday. Joe Biden has a sizeable lead over President Donald Trump in most polls. However, the polls were wrong in the last U.S. presidential election in 2016. Also, Covid-19 cases continue to rise in the U.S. and Europe, with the U.K. joining France in having to lock down many businesses. U.S. Covid-19 cases are hitting daily records. Still, overall trader and investor risk appetite is upbeat to start the first week of November. It could be that the market place is viewing the U.S. presidential election as win-win for the U.S. stock market–at least for the near term. A Biden victory would likely open up the spigots of massive government spending that would boost the U.S. economy. A Trump victory would keep corporate and individual taxes lower and keep in place business-friendly regulations that Trump put in place during his presidency.

In overnight news, the Euro zone October manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 54.8 versus 53.7 in September. A reading above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector. EU workhorse Germany’s manufacturing PMI was 58.2 in October. Meantime, China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI came in at 53.6 in October versus 53.0 in September, and at a multi-year high. China’s “official” manufacturing PMI, which is a more complete survey, showed a reading of 51.4 in October versus 51.5 in September.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are lower early today and hit a five-month low overnight, and presently trading around $34.75 a barrel. Crude oil has been hit by demand concerns amid the renewed lockdowns in Europe that could be a precursor to the U.S. locking down more businesses. The breakdown in crude oil prices is a significantly bearish omen for the entire raw commodity sector. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is 0.86% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business and manufacturing, construction spending, and the global manufacturing PMI.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading, on some short covering and bargain hunting after hitting a five-week low Friday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still fully bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,350.00 and then at 3,370.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,275.00 and then at the overnight low of 3,243.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly higher on short covering and bargain hunting after hitting a five-week low on Friday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still fully bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 11,281.25 and then at 11,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,000.00 and then at last week’s low of 10,944.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 172 20/32 and then at 173 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 171 31/32 and then at the October low of 171 22/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.12.0 and then at 138.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 138.03.5 and then at 138.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading and did hit a five-week low overnight. Bulls are fading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is belowe the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1700 and then at 1.1750. Shorter-term support is seen at the September low of 1.1630 and then at 1.1600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a five-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is  below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $35.28 and then at $36.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $34.00 and then at the overnight low of $33.64. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. The tanking crude oil market and risk aversion in the commodity markets are hitting the grain futures. Profit taking and weak long liquidation are being featured in the grains. This argues for more sideways-to-lower trading in the near term. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, October 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly down overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session solidly lower. It’s a risk-off trading day Friday, on this last trading day of the week and of the month. Some mostly as-expected but still uninspiring high-technology stocks’ earnings reports this week, rising Covid-19 infections in major industrialized countries that are prompting new restrictions on businesses, and the upcoming U.S. elections have traders and investors pulling in their horns today. Risk aversion could become keener on Monday and Tuesday, as next Tuesday’s U.S. elections will be the major focus of the global marketplace next week. Several global health officials have told the public in the Northern Hemisphere to expect a “dark winter,” with other officials warning Covid’s grip on the world, including its damaging economic implications, won’t abate until 2022.

In overnight news, Germany, the workhorse of the European Union, saw its GDP rise a better-than-expected 8.2% in the third quarter from the second quarter, but still down 4.3%, year-on-year.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker on a mild corrective pullback after strong gains this week that pushed the index to a four-week high on Thursday. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower early today and hit a 4.5-month low on Thursday, presently trading around $36.00 a barrel. The breakdown in crude oil prices this week, which produced serious near-term technical damage on the charts, is a significantly bearish omen for the entire raw commodity sector. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is 0.82% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, the employment cost index, the ISM Chicago business survey, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and hit a five-week low overnight. Bulls have lost their near-term chart advantage as a big and bearish double-top reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,300.00 and then at Thursday’s high of 3,333.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,226.00 and then at 3,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,300.00 and then at 11,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,039.50 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 173 19/32 and then at 174 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 172 20/32 and then at 172 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.19.5 and then at 138.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 138.11.0 and then at the October low of 138.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded this week. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1705 and then at Thursday’s high of 1.1769. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1661 and then at the September low of 1.1630. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trasding. Prices Thursday hit a 4.5-month low. Prices this week have seen a bearish downside “breakout” from a sideways trading range this week. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is  below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $37.00 and then at Thursday’s high of $37.76. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $36.00 and then at this week’s low of $34.92. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls are working to stabilize the grain markets after this week’s solid losses. Risk-off attitudes and profit taking from recent gains have hit the grain futures. Grain market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage as price uptrends are still in place on the daily charts. However, the big breakdown in the crude oil market this week is a significantly bearish omen for all raw commodity markets, including the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, October 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session firmer on a corrective bounce from Wednesday’s sharp losses. More and more, traders and investors are taking a very dim view of the Covid-19 prospects over the coming winter. Europe is on a worse trajectory than the U.S., but health experts say the U.S. is about four weeks behind Europe. France is on complete lockdown for the second time this year, while other European countries are in varying degrees of increasing business shutdowns. Concerns about the approaching U.S. presidential election and the transfer of power if Joe Biden wins are also in the marketplace.

It’s a very busy day for U.S. corporate earnings, including heavyweights Apple, Alphabet, Facebook, Amazon and Twitter.

The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan both met Thursday. The BOJ kept its monetary policy unchanged. The ECB meeting was still in progress as of this writing.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index firmer as the greenback bulls are having a good week. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a 4.5-month low, trading around $35.85 a barrel. The breakdown in crude oil prices this week, which produced serious technical damage on the charts, is a significantly bearish omen for the entire raw commodity sector. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is 0.78% today.

There is important U.S. economic data due for release Thursday including the weekly jobless claims report, which is forecast to show a rise of around 780,000 claims. The advance third-quarter GDP estimate is forecast up a record 32% from the second quarter. Pending home sales for September are seen up 3.0%.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on an upside correction from Wednesday’s steep losses. Bulls have lost their near-term chart advantage as a big and bearish double-top reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,310.75 and then at 3,350.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,260.75 and then at 3,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on a corrective bounce. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,296.00 and then at 11,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,123.75 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls are having a good week. More gain this week would suggest a market bottom is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 174 16/32 and then at this week’s high of 174 29/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 173 25/32 and then at 173 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 139.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 139.03.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 138.22.0 and then at 138.18.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading this week. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1769 and then at 1.1800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1702 and then at 1.1650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are down and hit a 4.5-month low in early U.S. trading. Prices have seen a bearish downside “breakout” from a sideways trading range this week. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is  below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $37.00 and then at the overnight high of $37.76. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $35.76 and then at $35.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are lower again in early U.S. pre-market trading. Risk-off attitudes and profit taking from recent gains are hitting the grain futures. Grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as price uptrends are still in place on the daily charts. However, the big breakdown in the crude oil market this week is a bearish omen for all raw commodity markets, including the grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff