Daily Morning Report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also set to open the New York day session sharply higher. The marketplace sees better risk appetite late this week, in the wake of the U.S. elections. While it’s still uncertain who will be the U.S. president in January (although Biden appears most likely to be, at present), a near certainty is that there will be gridlock in the U.S. Congress for at least the next two years. That’s good for stock and financial markets because no major, radical legislation would occur with a split U.S. Congress that will likely see the Republicans control the Senate and the Democrats control the House of Representatives.

The “inflation trade” that had gained steam in the weeks heading into the U.S. elections is now being unwound. Polls forecasting a Democratic sweep had many market watchers reckoning huge government spending programs that would help to ignite inflation. That won’t be the case now, and U.S. Treasury yields are dropping like a rock. The yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury note is presently 0.74%.

Meantime, the U.S. dollar index has sold off sharply in the wake of the election. The other important outside market sees crude oil prices a bit weaker and trading around $39.00 a barrel. Oil market bulls have had a very good week, to suggest at least sideways and choppy price action for that market in the near term.

In overnight news, the Bank of England Thursday said it will ramp up its monetary stimulus measures as the U.K. grapples with increasing lockdowns as Covid-19 infections continue to rise.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that started Wednesday morning on Thursday afternoon concludes with a statement on U.S. monetary policy. Fed Chairman Powell will also hold a press conference Thursday afternoon. No major changes in U.S. monetary policy are expected, but as usual the marketplace will be looking for guidance on future actions from the Fed.

Friday the U.S. employment situation report for October from the Labor Department is out. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen up 530,000 and the unemployment rate is seen at 7.7% versus 7.9% seen in September.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday include the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, preliminary productivity and costs, and the monthly chain store sales index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are sharply higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and are in striking range of hitting new highs. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,508.50 and then at the October high of 3,541.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,450.00 and then at the overnight low of 3,428.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 7.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are sharply higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,119.50 and then at the October high of 12,249.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,900.00 and then at the overnight low of 11,771.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Prices this week have scored a big and bullish reversal up, which is a solid clue that a market bottom is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 175 27/32 and then at 176 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 174 19/32 and then at 174 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Prices this week scored a big and bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart, to suggest a near-term bottom is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.08.5 and then at 139.14.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 138.30.5 and then at 138.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are still bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1850 and then at the October high of 1.18945. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1800 and then at 1.1750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading but have made a very strong recovery from Monday’s low of $33.64, to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $39.25 and then at $40.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $38.27 and then at $38.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are solidly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Better risk appetite in the marketplace is fueling upside action in the grains. The grain market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place in all three markets. On tap today will be weekly USDA export sales.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, November 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also set to open the New York day session mixed. The U.S. presidential election is a cliffhanger, with President Trump once again performing much better than the polls were forecasting. It could be days before a final result is seen and a winner declared. Trump has already said he will challenge the results if he loses. Markets could remain in limbo and languish until a winner is declared. Meantime, the Republicans appear to have kept control of the U.S. Senate, while the Democrats kept control of the House of Representatives.

Gold prices are solidly lower at mid-week, amid the so-far orderly U.S. elections and despite no winner yet in the race for president. Despite the very tight presidential race that could take days, or longer, to determine a winner, traders and investors are presently not exhibiting keen risk aversion Wednesday. The marketplace was somewhat assuaged by the fact that so far there has been no major civil unrest in the U.S. streets.

In other overnight news, the Euro zone September producer price index rose 0.3% from August and was down 2.4%, year-on-year. There are still no signs on the horizon of problematic inflation in the major world economies, even though many economists and analysts have been predicting such will occur at some point.

It’s also a week in which the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets starting Wednesday morning and on Thursday afternoon issues a statement on U.S. monetary policy. Fed Chairman Powell will also hold a press conference Thursday afternoon. No major changes in U.S. monetary policy are expected, but the marketplace will be looking for guidance on future actions from the Fed.

And on Friday the U.S. employment situation report for October from the Labor Department is out. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen up 530,000 and the unemployment rate is seen at 7.7% versus 7.9% seen in September.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are higher early today and presently trading around $38.50 a barrel. Crude oil has seen a strong rebound after hitting a five-month low Monday. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is 0.78% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the international trade report, the U.S. services PMI, the ISM report on business services, the global services PMI, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,400.00 and then at the overnight high of 3,432.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,350.00 and then at the overnight low of 3,319.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen 11,600.00 and then at the overnight high of 11,768.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,350.00 and then at the overnight low of 11,230.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are sharply higher in early U.S. trading, and in a massive daily trading range, after hitting a contract low overnight. Prices today have scored a big and bullish “key reversal” up, which is a solid clue that a market bottom is now in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 174 28/32 and then at 175 even. Shorter-term support lies at 173 even and then at 172 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher after hitting a five-month low in early U.S. trading. Prices are scoring a big and bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.30.0 and then at last week’s high of 139.03.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 138.16.0 and then at 138.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a 3.5-month low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are still bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1782 and then at 1.1800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1650 and then at the overnight low of 1.1612. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading and have made a very strong recovery from Monday’s low of $33.64, to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are still bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is  below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $39.00 and then at $40.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $38.00 and then at the overnight low of $37.26. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Like most other markets at mid-week, the grains are pausing to see how the U.S. presidential election turns out. The grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place in all three markets.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, November 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session solidly higher. Today is the day—arguably the most contentious U.S. presidential election in U.S. history is at hand in a bitterly divided nation. So far this week the stock and financial markets are not showing keen risk aversion. Gold is seeing a bit of safe-haven demand. Contender Joe Biden has a sizeable lead over President Donald Trump in most polls. However, the polls were wrong in the last U.S. presidential election in 2016. Some businesses in some cities are boarding up their windows in case of civil unrest following the elections. There are so many uncertainties regarding the election results and how the American public and even the standing U.S. government reacts in the aftermath of the voting results. It is a bit surprising to this longtime market watcher that the marketplace presently appears so calm and is not exhibiting much risk aversion.

The second big market element is the pandemic. Covid-19 cases continue to rise in the U.S. and Europe, with the U.K. and France locking down many businesses. U.S. Covid-19 cases are hitting daily records, with some health experts saying the U.S. will experience a “dark winter.”

In overnight news, Australia’s central bank cut its key interest rate by 0.15%, to 0.1%.

It’s also a week in which the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets starting Wednesday and on Thursday issues a statement on U.S. monetary policy. Fed Chairman Powell will also hold a press conference Thursday afternoon. No major changes in U.S. monetary policy are expected, but the marketplace will be looking for guidance on future actions from the Fed.

And on Friday the U.S. employment situation report for October from the Labor Department is out. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen up 530,000 and the unemployment rate is seen at 7.7% versus 7.9% seen in September.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher early today and presently trading around $38.00 a barrel. Crude oil is seeing a strong rebound after hitting a five-month low Monday. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is 0.87% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the ISM New York report on business, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, and domestic auto industry sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading, on more short covering and bargain hunting after hitting a five-week low last Friday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,370.00 and then at 3,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,301.25 and then at this week’s low of 3,243.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher on more short covering and bargain hunting after hitting a five-week low last Friday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last Friday’s high of 11,281.25 and then at 11,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 10,942.25 and then at 10,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 172 28/32 and then at 173 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 171 29/32 and then at the October low of 171 22/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a five-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.11.0 and then at 138.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 138.02.5 and then at 138.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are solidly up in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a five-week low Monday. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1729 and then at 1.1769. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1700 and then at the overnight low of 1.1648. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading and have made a very strong recovery from Monday’s low of $33.64, to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are still bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is  below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $38.30 and then at $39.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $37.00 and then at the overnight low of $36.57. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are solidly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, on short covering and bargain hunting. The strongly rebounding crude oil market and less risk aversion in the commodity markets, on this day, are also bullish for grains.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, November 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight, boosted by upbeat purchasing managers reports out of Asia and Europe. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session solidly higher. It’s a huge trading week as the U.S. election is Tuesday. Joe Biden has a sizeable lead over President Donald Trump in most polls. However, the polls were wrong in the last U.S. presidential election in 2016. Also, Covid-19 cases continue to rise in the U.S. and Europe, with the U.K. joining France in having to lock down many businesses. U.S. Covid-19 cases are hitting daily records. Still, overall trader and investor risk appetite is upbeat to start the first week of November. It could be that the market place is viewing the U.S. presidential election as win-win for the U.S. stock market–at least for the near term. A Biden victory would likely open up the spigots of massive government spending that would boost the U.S. economy. A Trump victory would keep corporate and individual taxes lower and keep in place business-friendly regulations that Trump put in place during his presidency.

In overnight news, the Euro zone October manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 54.8 versus 53.7 in September. A reading above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector. EU workhorse Germany’s manufacturing PMI was 58.2 in October. Meantime, China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI came in at 53.6 in October versus 53.0 in September, and at a multi-year high. China’s “official” manufacturing PMI, which is a more complete survey, showed a reading of 51.4 in October versus 51.5 in September.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are lower early today and hit a five-month low overnight, and presently trading around $34.75 a barrel. Crude oil has been hit by demand concerns amid the renewed lockdowns in Europe that could be a precursor to the U.S. locking down more businesses. The breakdown in crude oil prices is a significantly bearish omen for the entire raw commodity sector. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is 0.86% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business and manufacturing, construction spending, and the global manufacturing PMI.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading, on some short covering and bargain hunting after hitting a five-week low Friday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still fully bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,350.00 and then at 3,370.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,275.00 and then at the overnight low of 3,243.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly higher on short covering and bargain hunting after hitting a five-week low on Friday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still fully bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 11,281.25 and then at 11,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,000.00 and then at last week’s low of 10,944.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 172 20/32 and then at 173 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 171 31/32 and then at the October low of 171 22/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.12.0 and then at 138.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 138.03.5 and then at 138.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading and did hit a five-week low overnight. Bulls are fading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is belowe the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1700 and then at 1.1750. Shorter-term support is seen at the September low of 1.1630 and then at 1.1600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a five-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is  below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $35.28 and then at $36.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $34.00 and then at the overnight low of $33.64. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. The tanking crude oil market and risk aversion in the commodity markets are hitting the grain futures. Profit taking and weak long liquidation are being featured in the grains. This argues for more sideways-to-lower trading in the near term. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff