Daily Morning Report

Friday, January 19–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open higher when the New York day session begins. A late-week rally has the major U.S. stock indexes at or near 12-month highs. Risk aversion has receded despite high tensions in the Middle East. Just like the Russia-Ukraine war, it appears that after three months of the Israel-Hamas war, traders and investors have become numb to the matter, from a markets perspective.

There was no major, markets-moving news overnight, which has allowed some better risk appetite in the marketplace to end the trading week.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $74.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.128%.

U.S. economic data due out Friday includes existing home sales, Treasury international capital data and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and very close to the contract and 12-month high scored in December. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,841.50 and then at 4,875.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,800.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,746.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit a contract and 12-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,350.00 and then at 17,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 17,107.25 and then at 17,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting a five-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 121 even and then at 122 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 119 18/32 and then at 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a five-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 111.21.0 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 111.00.0 and then at 110.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are up a bit in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0950 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0871 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $75.25 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Thursday’s low of $72.18 and then at this week’s low of $70.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were slightly up overnight. Tepid short covering was featured. Charts remain fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, January 18–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open modestly up when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ratcheted up another notch as Pakistan launched retaliatory airstrikes inside Iran, killing at least 9 people. The strikes follow Iran’s attack Tuesday on Pakistani soil that killed two. The risk of escalation remained Thursday as Iran began a planned air defense drill from its port of Chabahar near Pakistan. Meantime, the U.S. has launched more air strikes against Iranian-backed Houthi rebel targets in Yemen.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index down a bit after hitting a four-week high Wednesday. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $72.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching around 4.09%.

U.S. economic data due out Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, new residential construction and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,823.00 and then at the contract high of 4,841.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,746.25 and then at 4,725.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 17,057.00 and then at the contract high of 17,165.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,689.25 and then at 16,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 122 even and then at this week’s high of 123 3/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 120 12/32 and then at 120 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 112.01.5 and then at this week’s high of 112.18.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the January low of 111.06.5 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are up a bit in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0950 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0871 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $73.56 and then at the January high of $75.25. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $70.50 and then at the January low of $69.28. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Not much new this week. Charts remain fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, January 17–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open lower when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, China reported its economic growth was the slowest in decades in 2023 (save for the Covid lockdown years), amid weakening consumer confidence and the slumping property sector. China’s gross domestic product expanded by 5.2% in the fourth quarter and for the year 2023. China’s Premier Li Qiang mentioned the weak GPD data in a speech in Davos, Switzerland on Tuesday. While below market expectations, the 4Q GDP number did meet the Chinese government’s expectations for economic growth in 2023. Today’s numbers helped to pressure commodity markets, including crude oil, as China, the world’s second-largest economy, is a voracious consumer of raw commodities.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady after hitting a four-week high Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $71.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.04%.

U.S. economic data due out Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, retail sales, import and export prices, the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, manufacturing and trade inventories and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,823.00 and then at the contract high of 4,841.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,750.00 and then at 4,725.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 17,057.00 and then at the contract high of 17,165.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,753.00 and then at 16,657.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 122 even and then at this week’s high of 123 3/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 120 27/32 and then at 120 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.01.5 and then at this week’s high of 112.18.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 111.19.5 and then at the January low of 111.06.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0950 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0850 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $72.05 and then at this week’s high of $73.56. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at the January low of $69.28. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Not much new. Charts remain fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, January 16–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open weaker when the New York day session begins. As U.S. traders get back from a long holiday weekend (U.S. markets were closed Monday for the Martin Luther King holiday.) they find elevated risk aversion in the marketplace following weekend Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, and U.S. and U.K. retaliatory air strikes in Yemen. That has helped to push the U.S. dollar index sharply higher today.

In other news, China’s central bank leaving its monetary policy unchanged disappointed those looking for more stimulus amid recent downbeat economic data from the world’s second-largest economy.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index sharply higher. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $73.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.012%.

U.S. economic data due out Tuesday is light and includes the Empire State manufacturing survey.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,841.50 and then at 4,875.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,772.75 and then at 4,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 17,057.00 and then at the contract high of 17,165.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,753.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 16,657.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 123 even and then at last week’s high of 123 15/32. Shorter-term support lies at the January low of 121 9/32 and then at 121 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower in lower in U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.18.5 and then at the January high of 112.26.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 112.00.0 and then at last week’s low of 111.15.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are solidly lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0950 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support at 1.0900 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $74.00 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $71.23 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Charts remain fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff