Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, January 17–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open lower when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, China reported its economic growth was the slowest in decades in 2023 (save for the Covid lockdown years), amid weakening consumer confidence and the slumping property sector. China’s gross domestic product expanded by 5.2% in the fourth quarter and for the year 2023. China’s Premier Li Qiang mentioned the weak GPD data in a speech in Davos, Switzerland on Tuesday. While below market expectations, the 4Q GDP number did meet the Chinese government’s expectations for economic growth in 2023. Today’s numbers helped to pressure commodity markets, including crude oil, as China, the world’s second-largest economy, is a voracious consumer of raw commodities.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady after hitting a four-week high Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $71.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.04%.

U.S. economic data due out Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, retail sales, import and export prices, the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, manufacturing and trade inventories and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,823.00 and then at the contract high of 4,841.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,750.00 and then at 4,725.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 17,057.00 and then at the contract high of 17,165.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,753.00 and then at 16,657.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 122 even and then at this week’s high of 123 3/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 120 27/32 and then at 120 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.01.5 and then at this week’s high of 112.18.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 111.19.5 and then at the January low of 111.06.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are near steady and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0950 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0850 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $72.05 and then at this week’s high of $73.56. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at the January low of $69.28. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Not much new. Charts remain fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, January 16–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open weaker when the New York day session begins. As U.S. traders get back from a long holiday weekend (U.S. markets were closed Monday for the Martin Luther King holiday.) they find elevated risk aversion in the marketplace following weekend Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, and U.S. and U.K. retaliatory air strikes in Yemen. That has helped to push the U.S. dollar index sharply higher today.

In other news, China’s central bank leaving its monetary policy unchanged disappointed those looking for more stimulus amid recent downbeat economic data from the world’s second-largest economy.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index sharply higher. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $73.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.012%.

U.S. economic data due out Tuesday is light and includes the Empire State manufacturing survey.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,841.50 and then at 4,875.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,772.75 and then at 4,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 17,057.00 and then at the contract high of 17,165.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,753.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 16,657.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 123 even and then at last week’s high of 123 15/32. Shorter-term support lies at the January low of 121 9/32 and then at 121 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly lower in lower in U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.18.5 and then at the January high of 112.26.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 112.00.0 and then at last week’s low of 111.15.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are solidly lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0950 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support at 1.0900 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $74.00 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $71.23 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Charts remain fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, January 12–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly weaker when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion is keener late this week as the U.S. and U.K. militaries bombed more than a dozen military sites used by the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen Friday. It was a retaliatory strike using warship and submarine-launched missiles and fighter jets, U.S. officials said. Yemen’s rebel Houthis said the airstrikes killed at least five people. Gold prices spiked sharply higher on the news, while crude oil prices pushed sharply higher. The Red Sea Houthi attacks on shipping vessels have impacted global commerce. Tesla announced it is halting production of its automobiles at a German factory due to supply chain disruptions.

Meantime, China got some more dour economic news Friday as the world’s second-largest economy is sinking deeper into deflation, “spelling trouble for the whole world as demand falters,” reported Dow Jones Newswires today. China’s December consumer price index fell 0.3%, year-on-year. Meantime, China’s December exports were up 2.3%, year-on-year, while imports were up 0.2%. Those numbers were slightly better than expected. China reported its 2023 exports fell 3.6% on the year, while imports dropped 5.5% in the same period.

Following Thursday’s slightly higher-than-expected U.S. consumer price index report for December, today comes the U.S. producer price index report for December. The PPI is forecast up 0.1% from November versus an unchanged reading in November from October. The Federal Reserve has been generally pleased with cooling U.S. inflation—to the point of hinting of no more interest rate increases and possibly interest rate cuts in 2024. The Fed would like to see annual U.S. inflation rates of around 2%.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are sharply up and trading around $75.25 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.986%.

Other U.S. economic data due out Friday includes the USDA monthly supply and demand and quarterly grain stocks reports.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the December contract high of 4,841.50 and then at 4,875.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,772.75 and then at 4,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 17,057.00 and then at the contract high of 17,165.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 16,753.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 16,657.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are a bit lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 123 15/32 and then at 124 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 121 15/32 and then at last week’s low of 121 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in lower in U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 112.16.0 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 112.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 111.15.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1040 and then at the January high of 1.1078. Shorter-term support at the January low of 1.0908 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $76.18 and then at $77.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $72.90 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s USDA monthly supply and demand and quarterly grain stocks reports. Charts remain fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, January 11–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly firmer when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls have rebounded this week, following selling pressure the first week of the new year, and are now back near their contract and 12-month highs.

Traders are awaiting the U.S. data points of the week: the December consumer price index report on Thursday morning and the December producer price index report on Friday morning. U.S. inflation has cooled in recent months, which has allowed the Federal Reserve to back off on its tighter monetary policy. The CPI report is seen up 3.3%, year-on-year versus a rise of 3.1% in the November report.

In other news, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission voted Wednesday to allow bitcoin to be traded as an exchange traded fund (ETF).

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $72.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.988%.

Other U.S. economic data due out Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, real earnings and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up and very close to the recent contract and 12-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the December contract high of 4,841.50 and then at 4,875.00. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 4,786.00 and then at 4,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and not far below the recent contract and 12-mont high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 17,048.05 and then at the contract high of 17,165.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 16,801.57 and then at Tuesday’s low of 16,657.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 123 even and then at 124 even. Shorter-term support lies at 122 even and then at last week’s low of 121 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 112.09.0 and then at 112.20.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 111.28.0 and then at this week’s low of 111.15.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1031 and then at the January high of 1.1078. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 1.0953 and then at the January low of 1.0908. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $74.24 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $71.00 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Charts remain fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means their path of least resistance remains sideways to lower. Traders are looking ahead to Friday’s USDA monthly supply and demand and quarterly grain stocks reports.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff