Daily Morning Report

Monday, January 29–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian stock markets were mostly up and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open mixed when the New York day session begins.

Risk aversion is keener to start the trading week after an Iran-backed Houthi drone strike against U.S. troops in Jordan killed three U.S. soldiers. President Biden said the U.S. would respond.

In other overnight news, reports said a Hong Kong court has issued a liquidation order on China’s Evergrande Group after the property development company failed to reach an agreement with its creditors. The liquidation will be closely watched by the marketplace. Bloomberg reported most of Evergrande’s assets are located in mainland China with the order to test the legal reach of Hong Kong courts.

The U.S. economic data point of the week is the Open Market Committee meeting of the Federal Reserve that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC is not expected to change U.S. monetary policy at this meeting but will likely give fresh guidance on futures policy plans.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $78.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.107%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract and record high Friday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,934.25 and then at 4,950.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,874.25 and then at 4,841.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a contract and record high last week. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 17,793.50 and then at 17,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 17,409.50 and then at 17,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a six-week low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 121 5/32 and then at 122 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 119 23/32 and then at last week’s low of 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 111.19.5 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 111.05.0 and then at the January low of 110.26.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading and near Friday’s six-week low. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0872 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0834 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting a two-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $79.29 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $77.00 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Charts are bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, January 26–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open a bit weaker when the New York day session begins. The S&P and Nasdaq indexes have hit record highs this week as risk appetite in the general marketplace has up-ticked recently.

The U.S. data point of the day, if not the week, is the personal income and outlays report for December, including its inflation components. Personal income is seen up 0.3% from November. Consumer spending is forecast up 0.5% from November. The PCE core price index is seen up 3.0%, year-on-year. The PCE inflation numbers are said to be the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauges.

In other news, the Wall Street Journal reports China is accelerating its monetary-policy-easing steps. “Chinese officials have signaled deepening concerns about the economy by unleashing a burst of measures aimed at reviving growth and steadying markets,” said the WSJ story.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $76.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.118%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes pending home sales.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract and record high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,933.25 and then at 4,950.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,874.25 and then at 4,841.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker after hitting a contract and record high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 17,793.50 and then at 17,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 17,409.50 and then at 17,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a six-week low Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 121 5/32 and then at 122 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 119 even and then at 118 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.19.5 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the January low of 110.26.0 and then at 110.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0956 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0834 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a seven-week high Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $77.51 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Thursday’s low of $75.16 and then at Wednesday’s low of $73.94. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. Charts are fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, January 25–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian shares mostly up and European shares mostly down. U.S. stock index futures are set to open mixed when the New York day session begins. The S&P and Nasdaq indexes have hit record highs this week as risk appetite in the general marketplace has up-ticked recently.

Part of the better risk appetite is due to China easing its monetary policy this week. Wednesday’s surprise 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut for banks in China “has seen buyers step into an illiquid market on expectations of a revival in construction activity,” said broker SP Angel today. Metals markets in China rallied across the board overnight “as optimism in China takes over after a seasonal lull,” said the broker. Tin rallied 1%, copper hit monthly highs and iron ore pushed higher. Premier Li Qiang called for further steps to support the economy, following the recent move to buy Chinese shares.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $76.25 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.157%.

It’s a very busy slate of U.S. economic data due out Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, the Chicago Fed national activity index, the advance fourth-quarter GDP estimate and its inflation readings, the advance economic indicators report, durable goods orders, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey and new residential sales.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract and record high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,933.25 and then at 4,950.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,874.25 and then at 4,841.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher after hitting a contract and record high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 17,793.50 and then at 17,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 17,409.50 and then at 17,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a six-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 120 even and then at this week’s high of 121 5/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 119 even and then at 118 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.19.5 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the January low of 110.26.0 and then at 110.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0956 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0845 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a two-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $77.50 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of $73.94 and then at this week’s low of $72.56. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly up overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Charts are fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, January 24–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open higher when the New York day session begins. The S&P and Nasdaq indexes have hit record highs this week as risk appetite in the general marketplace has up-ticked recently.

In overnight news, China’s central bank eased its monetary policy Wednesday, announcing it would cut the reserve requirement ratio for its commercial banks by 50 basis points, according to officials. The move is expected to inject 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) of liquidity into Chinese markets. China and Hong Kong stocks rallied on the news. Some analysts said the move by China’s central bank is not enough and more government spending is needed to shore up the world’s second-largest economy.

In other news, the Euro zone composite (services and manufacturing) purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 47.9 in January, which was below expectations. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $74.50 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.105%.

U.S. economic data due out Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the U.S. flash and services manufacturing purchasing managers indexes (PMI) and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,950.00 and then at 4,975.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,874.25 and then at 4,841.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit a contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 17,750.00 and then at 17,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 17,409.50 and then at 17,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 121 5/32 and then at 122 even. Shorter-term support lies at the January low of 119 10/32 and then at 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.19.5 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 111.04.0 and then at last week’s low of 110.26.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0940 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0845 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

March Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $75.46 and then at $76.31. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $72.56 and then at last week’s low of $70.62. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were up overnight. Not much new lately. Charts are fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff