Daily Morning Report

Friday, January 5–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open lower when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite in the marketplace is not robust this first week of 2024, amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. Also, bond yields are on the rise again, with the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield back above 4% for the first time in almost a month. That suggests the marketplace has backed off a bit on its dovish expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts in the coming months. A Wall Street Journal headline today reads: “Stock forecasters are on edge over weak start.”

Traders are looking ahead to Friday morning’s U.S. employment situation report for December. The key non-farm jobs number in the report is expected to come in up 170,000 and compares to a rise of 199,000 seen in the November report. A big miss on the consensus forecast is likely to move the markets.

In overnight news, the Eurozone consumer price index in December came in at up 2.9%, year-on-year, versus up 2.4% in the November report. Eurozone producer prices in November were reported down 8.8% year-on-year.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher, continuing this week’s solid rebound. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $72.50 a barrel. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.040%.

Other U.S. economic data due out Friday includes the ISM report on business services and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading to start 2024. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 4,766.50 and then at 4,800.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,700.00 and then at 4,675.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 16,587.25 and then at Wednesday’s high of 16,737.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,300.00 and then at 16,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 122 29/32 and then at 124 even. Shorter-term support lies at 121 24/32 and then at 121 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.01.0 and then at 112.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 111.10.0 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded a bit. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 1.1004 and then at this week’s high of 1.1078. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0926 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are modestly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $74.00 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Thursday’s low of $71.06 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace this week has the grain market bulls timid. Charts are fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means their path of least resistance remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, January 4–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open a bit higher when the New York day session begins, following two sessions of solid losses. Risk appetite in the marketplace is not robust this week, amid heightened tensions in the Middle East.

Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC minutes offered the marketplace nothing substantially new on the trajectory of Fed monetary policy. A Wall Street Journal headline today reads: “Fed minutes offer no timetable on cuts.”

In overnight news, China got some upbeat economic news as its Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for December came in at 50.8 versus 50.7 in November and 50.3 expected. The Caixin Services PMI was 52.9 versus 51.5 in November and 51.6 forecast. China’s Caixin Composite PMI was 52.6 compared to 51.6 in November.

Meantime, the Euro zone reported its December services PMI at 48.8 versus 48.7 in the November report. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector and above 50.0 suggests growth.

Traders are starting to look ahead to Friday’s U.S. employment situation report for December. The key non-farm jobs number in the report is expected to come in up 170,000 and compares to a rise of 199,000 seen in the November report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker on a corrective pullback following two days of solid gains. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $73.50 a barrel. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.959%.

U.S. economic data due out Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the ADP national employment report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the U.S. services PMI, the global services PMI, the monthly retail store sales index, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,800.00 and then at the contract high of 4,841.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,741.00 and then at 4,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 16,737.25 and then at 16,850.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,522.00 and then at 16,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 124 5/32 and then at this week’s high of 124 21/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 122 25/32 and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.19.0 and then at this week’s high of 112.26.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 111.28.0 and then at 111.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1004 and then at this week’s high of 1.1078. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0926 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.18. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace this week has the grain market bulls timid. Charts are fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means their path of least resistance remains sideways to lower.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, January 3–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open lower when the New York day session begins. There is some keener risk aversion in the marketplace at mid-week as Israel is on higher alert for a military escalation with Hezbollah after one of the top leaders of Hamas was killed in a drone strike in Beirut that is widely blamed on Israel. The killing of the Hamas leader has heightened the risk of a broader Middle East conflict.

The U.S. data point of the day Wednesday is the afternoon release of the minutes from the December FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve.

Traders are starting to look ahead to Friday’s U.S. employment situation report for December. The key non-farm jobs number in the report is expected to come in up 170,000 and compares to a rise of 199,000 seen in the November report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher, on follow-through strength from Tuesday’s solid gains. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $70.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.972%.

U.S. economic data due out Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the ISM report on business manufacturing, the JOLTS report, domestic auto industry sales and the minutes from the last FOMC meeting.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,800.00 and then at the contract high of 4,841.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,765.50 and then at 4,743.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 16,737.25 and then at 16,850.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,622.50 and then at 16,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 124 even and then at this week’s high of 124 21/32. Shorter-term support lies at 123 even and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.12.0 and then at this week’s high of 112.26.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 111.24.0 and then at 111.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at this week’s high of 1.1078. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $72.00 and then at this week’s high of $73.64. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $69.28 and then at the December low of $67.98. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mildly weaker overnight, following solid losses Tuesday. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace this week has the grain market bulls standing on the sidelines. Charts are now fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, January 2–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open lower when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite in the marketplace is less robust on this first trading day of 2024. Reports say merchant ships in the Red Sea are still coming under attack from Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. The U.S. Navy sunk three Houthi boats on Sunday, killing its occupants.

In other news, there was more weak economic data coming out of China, as its official purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.0 in December from 49.4 in November. The services sector PMI was unchanged at 49.3 in December. Readings below 50.0 suggest contraction in the sector.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $73.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.948%.

U.S. economic data due out Tuesday includes the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), the global manufacturing PMI and construction spending.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading but not too far below last week’s contract high and high for last year. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,841.50 and then at 4,875.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,743.25 and then at 4,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a contract high and new 2023 high last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at overnight high of 17,038.50 and then at the contract high of 17,165.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,758.50 and then at 16,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 124 21/32 and then at last week’s high of 125 30/32. Shorter-term support lies at 123 even and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.26.5 and then at last week’s high of 113.12.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 112.00.0 and then at 111.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1078 and then at 1.1119. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0950 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.18. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $71.25 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

There was no grain futures trading overnight due to the holiday Monday. Not much new recently. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent price action in wheat markets suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are bearish for soybeans and fully bearish for meal and soybean oil, as all the soy markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, December 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Note: I am on vacation late this week. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen is producing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken’s format is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his work.

The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight and sets the stage a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October’s low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16,670.67 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 17,165.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16,670.67. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,985.14.

The March S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October’s low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4738.96 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 4841.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Wednesday’s low crossing at 4743.25. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4738.99.

INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October’s low, the June high crossing at 128-16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 122-01 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 125-23. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 128-16. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 124-08. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122-01.

March T-notes were lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October’s low, June’s high crossing at 114.190 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.262 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the crossing at 113.140. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 114.190. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 112.216. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.262.

ENERGIES: February crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week’s decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $72.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If February renews the rally off December’s low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $76.33 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $76.33. Second resistance is the November 30^th high crossing at $79.67. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $72.33. Second support is December’s low crossing at $67.98.

CURRENCIES: The March Dollar was slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November’s high, the 87% retracement level of the July-October rally crossing at $99.783 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.301 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $101.453. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.301. First support is the 87% retracement level of the July-October rally crossing at $99.783. Second support is July’s low crossing at $98.786.

The March Euro was slightly higher overnight but remains below the 75% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 1.11710. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the the rally off December’s low, the 87% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 1.12734 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.09573 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 1.11710. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 1.12734. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.10433. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.09573.

Precious Metals: February gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the December 13^th low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off the December 13^th low, December’s high crossing at $2152.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2046.20 would signal that the rally off the December 13^th low has come to an end. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at $2098.20. Second resistance is the December 4^th high crossing at $2152.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2046.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2024.90.

Grains: March corn was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Tuesday’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month’s decline, psychological support crossing at $4.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.85 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.85 3/4. Second resistance is December’s high crossing at $4.93 3/4. First support is December’s low crossing at $4.68 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at $4.50.

March wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight and sets the stage for a fractionally higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November’s low, the 38% retracement level of the July-November decline crossing at $6.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.05 1/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the July-November decline crossing at $6.53. Second resistance is the August 23^rd high crossing at $6.68 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.05 1/4. Second support is November’s low crossing at $5.56 1/4.

March soybeans were slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off the December 12^th high, the 50% retracement level of the May-July rally crossing at $12.87 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.43 1/2 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.43 1/2. Second resistance is the December 12^th high crossing at $13.60. First support is the 50% retracement level of the May-July rally crossing at $12.87. Second support is the October 11^th low crossing at $12.82 1/2.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff