Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, January 3–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open lower when the New York day session begins. There is some keener risk aversion in the marketplace at mid-week as Israel is on higher alert for a military escalation with Hezbollah after one of the top leaders of Hamas was killed in a drone strike in Beirut that is widely blamed on Israel. The killing of the Hamas leader has heightened the risk of a broader Middle East conflict.

The U.S. data point of the day Wednesday is the afternoon release of the minutes from the December FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve.

Traders are starting to look ahead to Friday’s U.S. employment situation report for December. The key non-farm jobs number in the report is expected to come in up 170,000 and compares to a rise of 199,000 seen in the November report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher, on follow-through strength from Tuesday’s solid gains. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $70.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.972%.

U.S. economic data due out Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the ISM report on business manufacturing, the JOLTS report, domestic auto industry sales and the minutes from the last FOMC meeting.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,800.00 and then at the contract high of 4,841.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,765.50 and then at 4,743.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 16,737.25 and then at 16,850.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,622.50 and then at 16,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 124 even and then at this week’s high of 124 21/32. Shorter-term support lies at 123 even and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.12.0 and then at this week’s high of 112.26.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 111.24.0 and then at 111.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at this week’s high of 1.1078. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $72.00 and then at this week’s high of $73.64. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $69.28 and then at the December low of $67.98. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mildly weaker overnight, following solid losses Tuesday. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace this week has the grain market bulls standing on the sidelines. Charts are now fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, January 2–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open lower when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite in the marketplace is less robust on this first trading day of 2024. Reports say merchant ships in the Red Sea are still coming under attack from Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. The U.S. Navy sunk three Houthi boats on Sunday, killing its occupants.

In other news, there was more weak economic data coming out of China, as its official purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.0 in December from 49.4 in November. The services sector PMI was unchanged at 49.3 in December. Readings below 50.0 suggest contraction in the sector.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $73.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.948%.

U.S. economic data due out Tuesday includes the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), the global manufacturing PMI and construction spending.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading but not too far below last week’s contract high and high for last year. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,841.50 and then at 4,875.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,743.25 and then at 4,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a contract high and new 2023 high last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at overnight high of 17,038.50 and then at the contract high of 17,165.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,758.50 and then at 16,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 124 21/32 and then at last week’s high of 125 30/32. Shorter-term support lies at 123 even and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.26.5 and then at last week’s high of 113.12.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 112.00.0 and then at 111.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1078 and then at 1.1119. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0950 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.18. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $71.25 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

There was no grain futures trading overnight due to the holiday Monday. Not much new recently. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent price action in wheat markets suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are bearish for soybeans and fully bearish for meal and soybean oil, as all the soy markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, December 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Note: I am on vacation late this week. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen is producing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken’s format is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his work.

The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight and sets the stage a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October’s low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16,670.67 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 17,165.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16,670.67. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,985.14.

The March S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October’s low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4738.96 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 4841.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Wednesday’s low crossing at 4743.25. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4738.99.

INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October’s low, the June high crossing at 128-16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 122-01 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 125-23. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 128-16. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 124-08. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122-01.

March T-notes were lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October’s low, June’s high crossing at 114.190 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.262 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the crossing at 113.140. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 114.190. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 112.216. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.262.

ENERGIES: February crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week’s decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $72.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If February renews the rally off December’s low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $76.33 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $76.33. Second resistance is the November 30^th high crossing at $79.67. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $72.33. Second support is December’s low crossing at $67.98.

CURRENCIES: The March Dollar was slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November’s high, the 87% retracement level of the July-October rally crossing at $99.783 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.301 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $101.453. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.301. First support is the 87% retracement level of the July-October rally crossing at $99.783. Second support is July’s low crossing at $98.786.

The March Euro was slightly higher overnight but remains below the 75% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 1.11710. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the the rally off December’s low, the 87% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 1.12734 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.09573 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 1.11710. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 1.12734. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.10433. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.09573.

Precious Metals: February gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the December 13^th low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off the December 13^th low, December’s high crossing at $2152.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2046.20 would signal that the rally off the December 13^th low has come to an end. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at $2098.20. Second resistance is the December 4^th high crossing at $2152.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2046.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2024.90.

Grains: March corn was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Tuesday’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month’s decline, psychological support crossing at $4.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.85 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.85 3/4. Second resistance is December’s high crossing at $4.93 3/4. First support is December’s low crossing at $4.68 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at $4.50.

March wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight and sets the stage for a fractionally higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November’s low, the 38% retracement level of the July-November decline crossing at $6.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.05 1/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the July-November decline crossing at $6.53. Second resistance is the August 23^rd high crossing at $6.68 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.05 1/4. Second support is November’s low crossing at $5.56 1/4.

March soybeans were slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off the December 12^th high, the 50% retracement level of the May-July rally crossing at $12.87 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.43 1/2 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.43 1/2. Second resistance is the December 12^th high crossing at $13.60. First support is the 50% retracement level of the May-July rally crossing at $12.87. Second support is the October 11^th low crossing at $12.82 1/2.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, December 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Note: I am on vacation late this week. My friend and fellow analyst Ken Seehusen is producing my morning and afternoon reports. Ken’s format is a bit different than mine, but I think you will enjoy and benefit from his work.

The STOCK INDEXES

The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight and sets the stage a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October’s low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16,627.59 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 17,158.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16,627.59. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,948.44.

The March S&P 500 was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October’s low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4728.52 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4841.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Wednesday’s low crossing at 4743.25. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4728.52.

INTEREST RATES 

INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October’s low, the June high crossing at 128-16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 121-21 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 125-23. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 128-16. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 124-05. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121-21.

March T-notes were lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October’s low, the 87% retracement level of the crossing at 113.140 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.220 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 113.120. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the crossing at 113.140. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 112.219. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.220.

ENERGY MARKETS

ENERGIES: February crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December’s low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $72.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off December’s low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $76.62 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $76.62. Second resistance is the November 30^th high crossing at $79.67. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $72.60. Second support is December’s low crossing at $67.98.

CURRENCIES  

CURRENCIES: The March Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off November’s high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November’s high, the 87% retracement level of the July-October rally crossing at $99.783 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.387 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $101.478. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.387. First support is the 87% retracement level of the July-October rally crossing at $99.783. Second support is July’s low crossing at $98.786.

The March Euro was slightly higher overnight as it tested the 75% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 1.11710. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the the rally off December’s low, the 87% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 1.12734 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.09515 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 1.11710. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 1.12734. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.10410. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.09515.

GRAINS 

Grains: March corn was slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.86 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month’s decline, psychological support crossing at $4.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.86 1/2. Second resistance is December’s high crossing at $4.93 3/4. First support is this month’s low crossing at $4.68 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at $4.50.

March wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November’s low, the 38% retracement level of the July-November decline crossing at $6.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.04 1/2 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the July-November decline crossing at $6.53. Second resistance is the August 23^rd high crossing at $6.68 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.04 1/2. Second support is November’s low crossing at $5.56 1/4.

March soybeans were slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.44 1/4 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off the December 12^th high, the 50% retracement level of the May-July rally crossing at $12.87 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.44 1/4. Second resistance is the December 12^th high crossing at $13.60. First support is the 50% retracement level of the May-July rally crossing at $12.87. Second support is the October 11^th low crossing at $12.82 1/2.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, December 27–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open narrowly mixed when the New York day session begins. It’s been a fairly quiet trading week so far, what with the Christmas holiday on Monday and no major economic data points up to mid-week.

Israel has stepped up its offensive in Gaza, which has the international community very concerned about the heavy loss of innocent lives. The Russia-Ukraine war is close to its second year of conflict, with Ukraine stepping up its attacks on Russian military assets.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $75.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.87%.

U.S. economic data due out Wednesday is light and includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report and the Richmond Fed business survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below Tuesday’s contract high and high for the year. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,834.50 and then at 4,875.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,800.25 and then at last week’s low of 4,743.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract high and new yearly high Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 17,111.25 and then at 17,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,964.50 and then at week’s low of 16,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and near last week’s four-month high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 124 30/32 and then at 126 even. Shorter-term support lies at 124 even and then at last week’s low of 123 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s four-month high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 113.04.5 and then at 113.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 112.16.0 and then at last week’s low of 112.06.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The March Euro currency futures are higher and hit a 4.5-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1150 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1048 and then at 1.1000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $76.18 and then at $77.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $74.00 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker in overnight trading. Not much new recently. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent price action in wheat markets suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are bearish for soybeans and fully bearish for meal and soybean oil, as all the soy markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff