Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, October 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares slightly down and Asian shares modestly up. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session slightly lower. The marketplace is seeing less risk aversion early this week as President Trump left the hospital Monday evening and appeared to be in good spirits amid his battle with Covid-19. Ironically, a very big lead for Democrat Joe Biden in presidential election polls is also somewhat comforting the markets. Reason: A decisive Biden win would likely mean Trump would have a harder time contesting the results, to possibly suggest a smoother transfer of power. The markets may also be looking at a Biden win as meaning bigger government financial aid packages for U.S. businesses and citizens. Just remember, its 2020, so expect the unexpected.  

A feature in the marketplace just recently has been rising government bond yields. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.76% today.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivers a speech to a meeting of the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) today.

The U.S. Congress continues to discuss a second big financial aid package to deal with the negative economic impact of Covid-19. However, a deal between Democrats and Republicans still does not appear close.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index slightly weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $39.50 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the international trade report, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 3,400.00 and then at 3,420.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at Monday’s low of 3,346.50 and then at 3,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,500.00 and then at 11,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 11,267.50 and then at last week’s low of 11,140.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering following recent selling pressure. Bulls have faded. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 174 8/32n and then at 175 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 173 22/32 and then at the August low of 173 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a five-week low Monday. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 139.00.0 and then at 139.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 138.24.0 and then at the August low of 138.18.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices did hit a two-week high overnight. Bulls have gained some momentum. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1816 and then at 1.1850. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.1725 and then at 1.1700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $40.00 and then at $40.80. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $39.00 and then at $38.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are steady to higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain market bulls remain in firm technical control amid price uptrends in place. That means the path of least resistance for prices will remain sideways to higher. Focus is on U.S. harvest results, which are coming in varied. Traders are looking ahead to Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, October 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session higher. To start the trading week, traders and investors are focused on the aspect of President Trump’s condition improving following him testing positive for Covid-19 last week and entering the hospital Friday. Reports said Trump could be released from Walter Reed hospital today. Also, some are arguing that former vice president Joe Biden’s widening lead in the presidential polls that could provide a more decisive outcome of the election is a positive for trader and investor sentiment. However, others would argue a Biden presidential victory would not be good for the stock market, given his pledge to raise taxes and roll back some of Trump’s decrees to free up restrictions on U.S. business and industry. Still, most agree Trump’s Covid condition is still very fluid and could change quickly.

Meantime, in other overnight news, the Eurozone reported upbeat retail sales data for August—up 4.4% from July and up 3.7% year-on-year. The Eurozone September composite purchasing managers index (PMI) was also a bit better than expected at 50.4 versus expectations for a reading of 50.1. A reading above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher and trading around $38.50 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.71% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. services purchasing managers index (PMI) the employment trends index, the ISM report on business services, and the global services PMI.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 3,388.00 and then at 3,420.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at last week’s low of 3,287.50 and then at 3,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,400.00 and then at 11,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,267.50 and then at last week’s low of 11,140.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 175 25/32n and then at 176 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 175 1/32 and then at 174 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.14.5 and then at 139.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 139.09.0 and then at last week’s low of 139.06.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have gained some momentum. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1787 and then at 1.1800. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1725 and then at 1.1700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering from last week’s losses. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $39.00 and then at $40.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $38.00 and then at the overnight low of $37.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain traders this week will look to the outside markets for direction, given Trump being in the hospital for Covid. Focus is also on U.S. harvest results, which are coming in varied. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, October 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. Some Asian markets were closed for a holiday. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session solidly lower. News that President Trump and his wife have tested positive for Covid-19 has rattled the marketplace. Trump’s re-election campaign has been thrown into turmoil when he was already well behind in the polls. The bottom line on this matter: even more marketplace uncertainty in an already very uncertain U.S. presidential election atmosphere. Trump’s positive Covid test puts the spotlight back on a resurgence of infections in many major countries that could turn into a “second wave” that again damages economies that have just begun to recover from the first lockdown.

Traders and investors are also awaiting the U.S. economic data point of the week, which is Friday morning’s monthly jobless report for September from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast at up 875,000 and the unemployment rate is forecast at 8.2%. Trump’s Covid-19 news will likely overshadow the impact of the jobs report—unless it is a major miss from forecasts.

In other overnight news, the Euro zone September CPI came in at -0.3% versus -0.2% in August. Year-on-year, the Euro zone CPI was up 0.2% in September. Once again, the data coming from most major world economies is not pointing to a resurgence of inflation anytime soon.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower, hit a three-week low and are trading around $37.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.66% today.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the ISN New York report on business, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,388.00 and then at 3,420.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at this week’s low of 3,287.50 and then at 3,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,500.00 and then at the overnight high of 11,604.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,290.50 and then at this week’s low of 11,140.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 177 even and then at this week’s high of 177 12/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 176 6/32 and then at 175 28/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.24.0 and then at 139.29.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 139.16.0 and then at 139.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending lower on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1765 and then at 1.1800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1700 and then at 1.1650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $38.00 and then at $39.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the September low of $36.58 and then at $36.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on risk aversion after Trump tested positive for Covid-19. Also, markets are due for a correction and consolidation following this week’s solid gains. Focus is on U.S. harvest results, which are coming in better than expected so far.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Thursday, October 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session higher. Many Asian stock markets were closed for a holiday, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange had to halt stock trading due to technical problems. The stock and financial markets are half-way through what can be turbulent months of September and October. A glance across the markets spectrum shows no serious shocks or major volatility during September, although some markets did experience moderate rises in volatility—but also which can be considered not unusual. The U.S. stock indexes did get a bit wobbly during September but prices now appear to have stabilized.

Slight hopes for a new U.S. financial stimulus package for American citizens and businesses faded Wednesday after the Democrats and Republicans had a flurry of discussions earlier this week. Many doubt any plan will be agreed upon before the U.S. elections in early November.

In overnight news, the Euro zone September manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was reported at 53.7 versus the August reading of 51.7. The September PMI was right in line with market expectations. A reading above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector.

Traders and investors are awaiting the U.S. economic data point of the week, which is Friday morning’s monthly jobless report for September from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast at up 875,000 and the unemployment rate is forecast at 8.2%.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $40.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.68% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, personal income and outlays, the ISM report on business manufacturing, the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the global manufacturing PMI, construction spending, and domestic auto industry sales.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,400.00 and then at 3,420.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at the overnight low of 3,343.25 and then at this week’s low of 3,287.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,600.00 and then at 11,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,375.00 and then at this week’s low of 11,140.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading late this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 176 8/32 and then at 177 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 175 14/32 and then at 175 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.17.0 and then at this week’s high of 139.26.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 139.11.0 and then at 139.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending lower on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1776 and then at 1.1800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1700 and then at 1.1650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $40.47 and then at this week’s high of $40.80. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $39.00 and then at this week’s low of $38.41. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mostly up in early U.S. pre-market trading, on follow-through buying from Wednesday’s surprising and strong gains following a bullish USDA quarterly stocks report that shocked many long-time market watchers. Corn, soybean meal and wheat futures pushed to multi-month highs and closed out the month with technically bullish monthly and quarterly high closes. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Focus now returns to U.S. harvest results, which are coming in better than expected so far.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff