Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, October 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session near steady levels. Featured in the stock markets this week is third-quarter earnings reports from major companies. The worrisome spreading of the Covid-19 virus in major industrialized countries and elsewhere has traders and investors tentative at mid-week. Microsoft founder Bill Gates, who has been studying pandemics for many years, said in a CNBC interview today that the U.S. should expect a “rough” next several months regarding the Covid-19 virus.

The approaching U.S. presidential election and doubts of any new U.S. stimulus package for Americans before the end of the year are also unknowns that have paused the stock indexes at mid-week.

From a charts perspective, the U.S. stock indexes have had a good run just recently and are due for normal, corrective pullbacks.

In overnight news, the Euro zone August industrial output came in at up 0.7% from July but down 7.4%, year-on-year. Those numbers were in line with market expectations.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index slightly firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $40.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is 0.71% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the producer price index.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a six-week high Monday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,541.00 and then at the September high of 3,576.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at this week’s low of 3,464.25 and then at 3,425.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker on a corrective pullback after hitting a six-week high on Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,178.00 and then at this week’s high of 12,248.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,000.00 and then at 11,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on more short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 175 25/32 and then at 176 even. Shorter-term support lies at 175 even and then at Tuesday’s low of 174 8/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 139.12.0 and then at 139.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 139.05.5 and then at 139.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1800 and then at last week’s high of 1.1847. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1734 and then at 1.1700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of $40.53 and then at last week’s high of $41.47. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $39.04 and then at $38.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Markets this week are seeing a normal pause and downside corrections. Grain market bulls remain in firm technical control. This is normally a time of year when U.S. harvest pressure caps price gains. Such could continue to limit the upside in the near term. Remember that a bull market needs to be fed fresh, positive fundamental news very often, and the recent surge in demand for U.S. grains could be factored into prices.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, October 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session mixed. Featured in the stock markets this week will be third-quarter earnings reports from major companies.

Many major industrialized countries, including the U.S., just can’t tamp down the Covid-19 infection spread. Johnson and Johnson has now paused its Covid vaccine trials, in what was hoped to be a promising vaccine.

In overnight news, China’s imports in September were up 13.2% after falling 2.1% in August. Exports were up 9.9% in September. Both imports and exports beat market expectations and underscore how China’s forced and nearly complete lockdowns for its Covid-19 hotspots have put that country’s economy back on track much sooner than most of the free world’s economies.

Following the U.S. government holiday on Monday, the marketplace gets its first data point of the week Tuesday, with the consumer price index in focus. CPI for September is seen at up 0.2% from August, versus up 0.4% the month prior. The U.S. CPI is seen up 1.4%, year-on-year versus up 1.3% in August. These numbers are certainly not problematic on the inflation front.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $40.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is 0.75% today.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the NFIB small business index, the IMF world economic outlook, real earnings, and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading after hitting a six-week high Monday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 3,541.00 and then at the September high of 3,576.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at 3,500.00 and then at Monday’s low of 3,464.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly higher and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,300.00 and then at 12,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,023.00 and then at 11,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are modestly higher in early U.S. trading on more short covering after hitting a four-month low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 174 25/32 and then at 175 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 174 even and then at last week’s low of 173 10/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.01.5 and then at 139.04.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 138.25.5 and then at last week’s low of 138.20.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1847 and then at 1.1900. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1773 and then at last week’s low of 1.1725. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $40.45 and then at last week’s high of $41.47. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $39.04 and then at $38.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading, following Monday’s what are so far just normal corrective price pullbacks in solid uptrends. Grain market bulls remain in solid technical control. This is normally a time of year when U.S. harvest pressure caps price gains. Such could limit the upside in the near term. Remember that a bull market needs to be fed fresh, positive fundamental news very often, and the recent surge in demand for U.S. grains could be factored into prices now.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Monday, October 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session mixed to firmer. The U.S. Treasury markets and U.S. government are closed Monday for the Columbus Day holiday, while Canadian markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Three weeks before the U.S. elections former vice president Joe Biden is widening his lead in the polls over President Donald Trump. Also, there is now talk in the marketplace that the Democrats could take the Senate—possibly having all three branches of government be Democrat-controlled. This possibility has not rattled the stock market despite such a scenario likely meaning higher taxes for citizens and businesses. The tone of the marketplace at present suggests traders and investors may be more relieved that a suspected solid loss by Trump would make for a less uncertain exchange of power, as opposed to a very close election result that Trump could more easily contest if he lost.

In other news, the U.S. Congress does not appear to be getting closer to a Covid-19-related stimulus package for Americans.

Covid-19 continues to spread at an alarming rate in parts of Europe, including the U.K.

China has relaxed its rules on the trading of its currency, the yuan—specifically shorting it, suggesting China wants to slow the appreciation of its currency, which hit a 1.5-year high against the U.S. dollar on Friday.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $40.00 a barrel.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,500.00 and then at 3,525.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at the overnight low of 3,464.25 and then at Friday’s low of 3,445.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,900.00 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,687.75 and then at Friday’s low of 11,552.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a four-month low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 174 14/32 and then at 175 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 173 10/32 and then at 173 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 139.00.0 and then at 139.04.5. Shorter-term technical support last week’s low of 138.20.5 and then at the September low of 138.18.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1847 and then at 1.1900. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 1.1773 and then at last week’s low of 1.1725. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $40.45 and then at last week’s high of $41.47. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $39.80 and then at $39.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain market bulls are on a run and remain in solid technical control amid price uptrends in place. Speculators are becoming more interested in grain futures on the long side, as technical have become much more bullish this week. Focus is on U.S. harvest results, which are coming in varied but mostly good.     

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Friday, October 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session higher, on follow-through strength from Wednesday’s and Thursday’s gains. Stock index bulls are having a very good week. China’s main stock markets reopened Friday after an eight-day holiday.

U.S. congressional discussions on a stimulus package for American citizens and businesses are reportedly seeing late-week progress as President Trump has apparently agreed to a larger stimulus package that the Democrats have been seeking. There are still likely hoops to jump through for U.S. lawmakers and most market watchers still any Covid-19 relief checks could be in the mail before the early-November election.

In other overnight news, China’s Caixin services purchasing managers index (PMI) for September rose for a fifth straight month, coming in at 54.8 versus 54.0 in July, and beat expectations for a reading of 54.3.

Gold prices are sharply up Friday morning, partly on the reopening of China’s markets following a long holiday and the upbeat Chinese economic data that will likely prompt better consumer demand for the precious metal.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $40.85 a barrel. The oil market bulls have had a good week, as a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico has shut in oil installations. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently trading around 0.77%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes monthly wholesale trade.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit a five-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,475.00 and then at 3,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at Thursday’s low of 3,405.50 and then at 3,375.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the October high of 11,604.75 and then at 11,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 11,469.75 and then at 11,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a four-month low Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 174 16/32 and then at 175 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 173 22/32 and then at this week’s low of 173 10/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a five-week low Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 139.00.0 and then at Wednesday’s high of 139.04.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 138.24.5 and then at this week’s low of 138.20.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1825 and then at 1.1850. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1773 and then at this week’s low of 1.1725. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $41.47 and then at $41.72. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Thursday’s low of $39.76 and then at $39.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are solidly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain market bulls are on a run and remain in solid technical control amid accelerating price uptrends in place. On tap today is the monthly USDA supply and demand report, which is expected to be neutral to friendly. Speculators are becoming more interested in grain futures on the long side, as technical have become much more bullish this week. Focus is on U.S. harvest results, which are coming in varied but mostly good.     

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff