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Daily Morning Report

Global equities weaker after U.S. presidential debate rancor

September 30, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, September 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session lower. The first U.S. presidential debate between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden that took place in Cleveland, Ohio Tuesday night produced unprecedented acrimony but probably did not move the needle much regarding changing voters’ minds. Still, the rancor from both sides that included President Trump saying he did not trust the mail-in voting process and not committing to urge his supporters to remain calm if he lost the election served to inject more uncertainty into an already unsettled marketplace.

Rising Covid-19 infections in major countries heading into colder weather and more inside activities in the Northern Hemisphere have raised more concerns about a second wave of the virus again shutting down businesses and damaging economies.

The U.S. government slapped a $920 million fine on investment bank JP Morgan Tuesday, as the firm admitted to manipulating precious metals and Treasury markets. That’s the largest fine ever levied by the U.S. for the manipulation, called “spoofing,” in which big trading orders are entered but then quickly cancelled. This news can be seen as at least a partial redemption for a vocal group of metals market watchers who have claimed for many years that JP Morgan has had a heavy hand in manipulating the gold market.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index firmer after being under pressure Monday and Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $38.85 a barrel, as the oil market bulls are fading this week. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.65% today.

The U.S. economic data point highlight of the week will be Friday morning’s monthly jobless report for September from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast at up 875,000 and the unemployment rate is forecast at 8.2%. Traders will closely examine today’s monthly ADP national employment report.

Today is the last trading day of the month and of the quarter, making it a more important day from a technical chart perspective.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, revised corporate profits and the third estimate of second-quarter GDP. Also on tap is the ISM Chicago business survey, pending home sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have stabilized prices at mid-week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,363.00 and then at 3,385.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at this week’s low of 3,287.50 and then at 3,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,448.75 and then at 11,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,140.25 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls were working on a near-term price uptrend. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 177 12/32 and then at 178 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 176 19/32 and then at 176 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 139.26.0 and then at the September high of 139.29.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 139.20.5 and then at this week’s low of 139.16.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1773 and then at 1.1800. Shorter-term support is seen at last 1.1680 and then at week’s low of 1.1630. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $39.25 and then at $40.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $38.41 and then at $38.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. On tap today is the USDA quarterly grain stocks report, which is not expected to be bullish, but will not likely be a bit markets mover. Grain market bulls have faded a bit recently but still have the overall near-term technical advantage in all three markets. Focus remains on U.S. harvest results, which are coming in better than expected so far. Grain traders, keep a close eye on the crude oil market, because if that market falters then such would be a bearish omen for the grains.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Markets pause ahead of U.S. presidential debate

September 29, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday, September 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session slightly lower. Risk appetite is a bit more upbeat early this week. The first U.S. presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden takes place in Cleveland, Ohio Tuesday night. Most agree the debates will change very few voters’ minds. Still, the marketplace remains a bit skittish ahead of the debate, which is likely to produce some fireworks.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index down again on a corrective pullback after hitting a two-month high late last week. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $40.40. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.65% today.

The U.S. economic data point highlight of the week will be Friday morning’s monthly jobless report for September from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast at up 875,000 and the unemployment rate is forecast at 8.2%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook reports, the weekly chain store sales index, the S&P-Core Logic home indexes, and the consumer confidence index. Several Federal Reserve officials also speak today.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have stabilized prices early this week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,363.00 and then at 3,385.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at 3,325.00 and then at 3,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,500.00 and then at 11,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,300.00 and then at 11,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls were working on a near-term price uptrend. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 177 9/32 and then at 177 14/32. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 176 19/32 and then at 176 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 139.23.5 and then at the September high of 139.29.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 139.16.5 and then at last week’s low of 139.12.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are a bit higher in early U.S. trading, on more short covering. Prices are trending lower on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1716 and then at 1.1750. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.1630 and then at 1.1600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $40.80 and then at $41.72. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $39.78 and then at $39.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls have faded a bit recently but still have the overall near-term technical advantage in all three markets. Focus is on U.S. harvest results, which are coming in better than expected so far, and export demand, as many wonder how long China will continue its buying binge, as seen in the daily USDA export sales announcements. New speculators coming into the long side of the grain futures markets are helping to keep price uptrends alive in all three grains.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Greenback bulls gain momentum

September 28, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

See on the daily bar chart for the December U.S. dollar index that prices are starting to trend up. The jury is still out regarding the sustainability of this new uptrend, as the longer-term USDX charts still favor the bears, or are neutral. Remember that the greenback is still a safe-haven asset. Don’t be surprised if the U.S. dollar remains supported the next few weeks by the keener uncertainty and anxiety in the marketplace. Stay tuned!– Jim

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Global stock markets firmer to start trading week

September 28, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

Monday, September 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session lower and also set to score a fourth week in a row of declines. Risk aversion remains keener to end the trading week. “As we go into the fourth quarter, risks are starting to pile up,” said one analyst. Covid-19 cases are on the rise in many major industrialized countries, with no proven vaccine on the horizon. Questions about the U.S. presidential election and the smooth transfer of power if President Trump loses the electoral college vote count also are unsettling to traders and investors. Heightened trade and political tensions between the world’s two largest economies—the U.S. and China—are also dampening marketplace attitudes.

U.S. House of Representative Democrats are pushing a revised and smaller stimulus package for Americans and U.S. businesses, but Republicans say they doubt any deal before election day will occur.

Gold and silver bulls have been perplexed this week by their metals’ prices plunging despite the keener trader and investor anxiety that history suggests should support the precious metals markets. One FXTM analyst in this morning’s email dispatch laid out this bullish scenario: “Gold prices (are) likely to rise again as debt markets struggle with new issuance. Demand for debt in Southeast Asian markets falls (Bloomberg). If corporates and governments are not able to borrow then new equity will need to be raised. If governments are not able to issue more debt, then more cash may be printed or interest rates raised. Raising interest rates is not good for economic development and printing cash is normally viewed as inflationary. Either way gold prices look likely to rise.” Many market watchers would argue this thesis is an outlier.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index up and near this week’s two-month high. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $40.30. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.66% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes durable goods orders.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending lower on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,350.00 and then at 3,375.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at the overnight low of 3,287.50 and then at 3,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,400.00 and then at 11,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,250.00 and then at the overnight low of 10,140.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls were working on a near-term price uptrend. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 177 9/32 and then at 177 14/32. Shorter-term support lies at 176 16/32 and then at 176 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 139.23.5 and then at the September high of 139.29.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 139.12.0 and then at 139.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bulls are fading as prices are trending lower. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1700 and then at 1.1739. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.1630 and then at 1.1600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $41.00 and then at $41.72. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $39.78 and then at $39.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls have faded a bit recently but still have the overall near-term technical advantage in all three markets. A strong U.S. dollar has weighed on the grains. Focus is on U.S. harvest results, which are coming in better than expected so far, and export demand, as many wonder how long China will continue its buying binge, as seen in the daily USDA export sales announcements. Traders will closely examine today’s weekly USDA export inspections report.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Risk aversion still keener to end the trading week

September 25, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

Friday, September 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session lower and also set to score a fourth week in a row of declines. Risk aversion remains keener to end the trading week. “As we go into the fourth quarter, risks are starting to pile up,” said one analyst. Covid-19 cases are on the rise in many major industrialized countries, with no proven vaccine on the horizon. Questions about the U.S. presidential election and the smooth transfer of power if President Trump loses the electoral college vote count also are unsettling to traders and investors. Heightened trade and political tensions between the world’s two largest economies—the U.S. and China—are also dampening marketplace attitudes.

U.S. House of Representative Democrats are pushing a revised and smaller stimulus package for Americans and U.S. businesses, but Republicans say they doubt any deal before election day will occur.

Gold and silver bulls have been perplexed this week by their metals’ prices plunging despite the keener trader and investor anxiety that history suggests should support the precious metals markets. One FXTM analyst in this morning’s email dispatch laid out this bullish scenario: “Gold prices (are) likely to rise again as debt markets struggle with new issuance. Demand for debt in Southeast Asian markets falls (Bloomberg). If corporates and governments are not able to borrow then new equity will need to be raised. If governments are not able to issue more debt, then more cash may be printed or interest rates raised. Raising interest rates is not good for economic development and printing cash is normally viewed as inflationary. Either way gold prices look likely to rise.” Many market watchers would argue this thesis is an outlier.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index up and near this week’s two-month high. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $40.30. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.66% today.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes durable goods orders.

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and set to close at a technically bearish weekly low close and at a seven-week low close. Prices are trending lower on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,258.75 and then at 3,300.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at this week’s low of 3,198.00 and then at 3,175.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending down on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 10,976.50 and then at 11,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 10,660.25 and then at 10,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are modestly firmer in early U.S. trading but poised for a technically bullish weekly high close. Bulls were working on a near-term price uptrend. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 177 14/32 and then at 178 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 176 20/32 and then at 176 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and poised for a bullish weekly high close. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 139.24.0 and then at the September high of 139.29.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 139.10.5 and then at 139.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading, near this week’s two-month low and poised for a technically bearish weekly low close today. Bulls are fading fast as prices are trending lower. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance the overnight high of 1.1650 and then at 1.1706. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1645 and then at 1.1600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $40.64 and then at $41.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $38.87 and then at $38.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed to lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls have faded a bit this week but still have the overall near-term technical advantage in all three markets. A strong U.S. dollar and wilting raw commodity sector, overall, are weighing on the grains. Focus remains on U.S. harvest results, which are coming in better than expected, and export demand, as many wonder how long China will continue its buying binge, as seen in the daily USDA export sales announcements. There were none on Thursday—the first no-show by China in over two weeks.   

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

Gold bulls staggered and now on the ropes

September 24, 2020 by Jim Wyckoff

December gold futures this week hit a two-month low and also fell below the last “reaction low” (the August low of $1,874.20) in what was a near-term price uptrend that had been in place since March , to negate it. Now, prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. While the technical news for gold is grim on a near-term (daily chart) basis, the longer-term (weekly chart) technical posture remains friendly as prices are still in a two-year-old uptrend. On the weekly continuation chart for nearby Comex gold futures, prices would have to drop below $1,700 to produce serious longer-term chart damage, including negating the uptrend on the weekly chart. Stay tuned!– Jim

Filed Under: Blog News, Jim's Morning Report, Uncategorized

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There is a risk of financial loss in futures and options trading. Futures trading is neither easy nor an easy way to make money. It takes hard work to have success. Please use sound money management when trading futures. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing on this website is intended to be a trading recommendation to buy or sell futures or options. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Readers are solely responsible for how they use the information on this website.

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