Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, June 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes on Monday made a strong recovery from sharp early-day losses, due in part to the Federal Reserve announcing it has started buying corporate bonds, in an extension of an existing program that had only purchased corporate bond exchange traded funds. Reports also said the Trump administration is planning to spend $1 trillion on U.S. infrastructure improvements.

There is growing agreement the Federal Reserve will continue to deploy more firepower to support the U.S. economy. Such is ultimately bearish for the U.S. dollar as the U.S. government’s debt obligations continue to bulge. The U.S. dollar index is presently in a steep downtrend on the daily bar chart.

The U.S. economic highlight of the week will be Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s two days of congressional testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday for his semi-annual economic report to Congress. He may provide more clarity and perspective on the Fed’s bond buying and other monetary policy moves. Traders will monitor to see if his comments expand on his sober assessment of the U.S. economy last week.

In other news, North Korea is ramping up its bellicose activities, as it blew up a meeting facility with South Korea that was just inside the North Korean border. Many look for North Korea to become more provocative with the U.S. as the U.S. presidential election approaches in November.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $37.75 a barrel. The International Energy Agency said Tuesday global oil demand in 2020 will decline by 8.1 million barrels per day. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently around the 0.75% level.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, and manufacturing and trade inventories.

–Jim
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See on the daily bar chart for the September e-mini S&P futures that a price uptrend line has been negated with recent strong selling pressure. The bulls need to step up early this week and show power, to restart the price uptrend. More price pressure this week would strongly suggest a market top is in place.–Stay tuned! Jim

Monday, June 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly down in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are risk averse to start the work week, as there are growing signs that the Covid-19 pandemic is making a resurgence. Reports said parts of Beijing are on lockdown again, with cases in some U.S. states also on the rise as businesses reopen and American citizens become more lax on social distancing. Reported cases in the U.S. have now risen above 2 million.

There are also growing notions that the global stock market rebounds have come too far, too fast, given the actual economic conditions in the major industrialized countries at present. The general and even many in the investing public are asking, “How could the Nasdaq stock index hit a record high last week when U.S. unemployment has surged to around 15% and much of the economy remains crippled?”

The U.S. economic highlight of the week will be Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s two days of congressional testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday for his semi-annual economic report to Congress. He may provide more clarity on the Fed’s bond buying and other monetary policy moves. Traders will monitor to see if his comments expand on his sober assessment of the U.S. economy last week.

In other overnight news, Euro zone April exports were reported down 24.5% and imports were down 13%.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. The greenback remains in a steep downtrend. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $35.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently around the 0.68% level.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey and Treasury international capital data.

–Jim
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Friday, June 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading, with Asian stocks mostly down and European stocks mostly up. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly higher openings when the New York day session begins, but the overnight gains are only about one-third of Thursday’s very sharp losses. Risk aversion has returned to the marketplace late this week, on a surge in Covid-19 cases in some major global economies after they started to reopen businesses, which in turn increased human interaction. It could be that the rise is due to more testing that is prompting more cases to be reported. Traders and investors also got a reminder from the Federal Reserve this week of just how bad is the U.S. and global economic situation at present, and the tough road ahead. President Trump on Thursday criticized the Fed for being too dour in its predictions.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin on Thursday said the government is mulling a second round of cash payments to American taxpayers who qualify.

In overnight news, the U.K. reported its economy contracted by 20.4% in April. Meantime, Euro zone industrial output for April was reported down 17.1% from March and down 28% year-on-year—for the largest drop ever recorded.

The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index slightly weaker. The greenback is in a steep downtrend and the USDX hit a three-month low this week. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $36.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently around the 0.7% level.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export prices and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim
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A potential “green shoot” for the raw commodities markets is a bullish technical signal coming from the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI), which is a basket of several major commodity futures markets rolled into one composite price index. The weekly GCSI chart shows prices in April careened to a 17-year low, including producing big gaps down on the bar chart in March. However, in May price action on the weekly chart reversed course, including producing a big gap to the upside. The price action in April and May created a very significantly bullish “island bottom” reversal pattern, to strongly suggest a major low is in place for the GSCI, and that prices are now likely to trend higher in the coming weeks and months, or even longer.–Stay tuned! Jim

Thursday, June 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion has returned to the marketplace following a wake-up call delivered by the Federal Reserve following its two-day FOMC meeting Wednesday afternoon. The Fed made no changes in U.S. monetary policy but leaned dovish, saying the U.S. economy could take years to fully recover from its recent damage inflicted by the Covid-19 pandemic. The central bank also painted a bleak picture of the present state of the U.S. economy, including forecasting U.S. GDP at minus 6.5% this year and unemployment above 9% by the end of the year. Those numbers were not a shock to the marketplace, but a grim reminder to traders and investors who had just pushed the Nasdaq stock index to a new record high Wednesday morning and the S&P 500 to a three-month high Monday.

Said one market analyst in an email dispatch Thursday morning: “The Fed is now committed to keeping interest rates near zero until at least the end of 2022 and using all its tools to support the economy. This could translate into further speculative bets and push the rally in equities and corporate debt higher. However, without real economic recovery the market will have to deal with a more significant challenge, which is debt insolvency. That’s why the disconnect between asset performance and economic fundamentals cannot run forever and investors will need to become more rational with their investment approach.”

There are also growing worries in the global marketplace about a “second wave” of the Covid-19 pandemic hitting many countries. There is some evidence such may be occurring in some regions of some countries, including the U.S.

The important outside markets see the U.S. dollar index firmer on a bounce after hitting a three-month low Wednesday. The greenback is in a serious swoon. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are lower on a corrective pullback after hitting a three-month high above $40.00 Monday, and are trading around $38.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently around the 0.7% level. Gold is solidly up Thursday morning and bulls are having a good week as safe-haven demand has returned to the marketplace.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and the producer price index. Jobless claims in the latest reporting week are seen up 1.6 million.

–Jim
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