Daily Morning Report

Friday, June 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Equities investors on Friday are being buffeted by the competing forces of easy central bank money that has been flowing into stock markets, countered by rising concerns this week about a “second wave” of Covid-19 infections again squelching major economies. The Texas governor has stopped the reopening of businesses in his state as the Covid infection rate spikes and hospitals are filling up. Other U.S. states are also seeing alarming rises in infections.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $39.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly down early today. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently around the 0.68% level.

The important U.S. economic data release of the day Friday is personal income and outlays for May. Income is seen down 7.0% and outlays (spending) is seen up 8.7% in the month, compared to April. The marketplace wants to see if today’s numbers beat expectations on the upside. The other data point in the U.S. today is the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

–Jim
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See on the daily bar chart for the September Euro currency that the recent price uptrend has stalled out and price action has turned sideways and choppy. The bulls are fading. See, too, at the bottom of the chart that the MACD indicator recently produced a sell signal when the blue MACD line crossed below the red trigger line.–Stay tuned! Jim

Thursday, June 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mixed to lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to weaker openings when the New York day session begins, following strong losses Wednesday. The Covid-19 pandemic appears to be spreading at a more alarming rate again in many countries, including the U.S. That has sapped trader and investor confidence late this week.

Many health experts are saying two months of progress in the U.S. has been thrown out the window because businesses opened up too early and Americans are not being vigilant enough because they got “Covid-fatigue.” It seems unlikely the U.S. will get locked down to the degree seen in the spring. Still, the worrisome rise in infections the past couple weeks could bring a halt to the rapid U.S. economic recovery seen since businesses started reopening. That is what has the U.S. stock indexes selling off.

Another concern for the marketplace is rumblings the U.S. could implement more trade tariffs against the European Union and the U.K. The U.S. and China (the world’s two largest economies) already have strained relations on trade and other matters.

There is also trader talk the marketplace is beginning to sense President Trump is in real danger of losing his re-election bid in November. A win by the Democrat, Joe Biden, would probably see corporate and wealthy American tax increases as well as more regulations on businesses—bearish for the stock market.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $37.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is up early today. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently around the 0.68% level.

It’s a busy day for U.S. economic data Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, the third estimate for first-quarter gross domestic product, the advance economic indicators report, durable goods orders and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

–Jim
!–more Continue Reading–>
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading as trading has been sideways recently. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,056.00 and then at 3,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at the overnight low of 3,005.00 and then at 2,975.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls remain in firm technical command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 10,150.00 and then at the record high of 10,296.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 9,843.50 and then at 9,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are up and hit a four-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 178 17/32 and then at 179 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 178 1/32 and then at 177 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage as prices trade sideways at higher levels. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 139.03.0 and then at 139.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 138.27.5 and then at 138.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage but the bulls have stabilized the market. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral to bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 97.700 and then at 98.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 97.135 and then at 97.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback after hitting a nearly four-month high on Tuesday. Bulls are fading a bit. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $38.46 and then at $39.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $37.00 and then at $36.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Grain market bears are firmly in control to suggest sideways to lower price action in the near term. The only thing that will rescue the bulls is a weather market developing in the U.S. Corn Belt in the coming weeks, which the long-term weather forecasts are not seeing at this time.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

Wednesday, June 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

European stock markets were down in overnight trading, while Asian bourses were mixed. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk sentiment is less upbeat at mid-week, amid a troublesome rise in Covid-19 infections in some parts of the world, including some U.S. states. This has intensified the debate on whether the rise in infections will result in a renewed lockdown of businesses that would mean further damage to recovering economies.

Gold prices hit a 7.5-year high overnight, on safe-haven demand amid the uptick in Covid cases recently and on notions the easy-money-infused major economies of the world are presently only on “sugar high” rebounds and a reckoning will occur down the road.

In other overnight news, Germany’s closely watched Ifo business sentiment index rose by a record amount in June, coming in at 86.2 from 79.7 in May. “German business sees light at the end of the tunnel,” said the Ifo report. This is just the latest piece of data suggesting major global economies are healing much faster than most economists had expected.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $40.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly up early today. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently around the 0.68% level. For perspective, the 10-year German government bond (the bund) is presently yielding -0.44%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the house price index, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report. Also today the International Monetary Fund issues its world economic outlook report.

–Jim
!–more Continue Reading–>

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been sideways recently. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,128.50 and then at this week’s high of 3,145.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at Tuesday’s low of 3,060.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,027.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker on profit taking after hitting a record high on Tuesday. Bulls remain in firm technical command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight record high of 10,242.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of 10,296.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 10,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 9,843.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 178 1/32 and then at 178 14/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 176 13/32 and then at 176 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage as prices trade sideways at higher levels. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 138.30.5 and then at 139.03.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 138.12.0 and then at 138.07.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral to bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 97.215 and then at this week’s high of 97.700. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 96.320 and then at 96.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback after hitting a nearly four-month high on Tuesday. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $40.54 and then at this week’s high of $41.63. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $39.00 and then at $38.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

US grain futures are a bit firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls are fading this week. Wheat bears are firmly in control. Grain market bulls need a weather market to soon develop in the U.S. Corn Belt. Otherwise, grain futures prices will languish at best, or trend down and set new for-the-move lows at worst.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff

See on the daily bar chart for August gold futures that prices are starting to trend higher and are now not far from the multi-year high hit this spring. Bulls have gained good momentum and new for-the-move highs are likely in the near term. Fundamentally, the rise in Covid-19 infections around the world are providing a safe-haven bid for the yellow metal.–Stay tuned! Jim

Tuesday, June 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

Global stock markets were mostly up in overnight trading. U.S. stock markets are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Equities markets were lifted in part overnight following a tweet from President Trump that said the U.S.-China Phase 1 trade deal is still very much in place. This comes following and after-hours sell off after one of Trump’s top economic advisors, China-hawk Peter Navarro, on Monday evening suggested in a TV interview that the trade deal was off. Trump’s tweet a bit later prompted the rebound.

Trader and investor sentiment is also mostly upbeat amid recent data from major world economies that shows they are rebounding from the Covid-19 pandemic shutdowns much more rapidly than most expected. Overnight the Euro zone June flash composite purchasing managers index (PMI) was reported at 46.9 versus expectations for a reading of 40.0 and compares to May’s 31.9. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction.

However, a disturbing rise in Covid infections in some parts of the world, including some U.S. states, is being watched very closely by the marketplace and could soon dent risk appetite. If the rates of infections continue to increase, the debate will intensify regarding shutting businesses back down. Such would deal a catastrophic blow to the now-recovering economies and would likely send stock markets careening lower. The gold market is presently getting a safe-haven bid on these notions.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $41.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker early today. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently around the 0.68% level.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the U.S. flash manufacturing and services PMIs, the Richmond Fed business survey, and new residential sales.

–Jim
!–more Continue Reading–>
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 3,156.25 and then at the June high of 3,179.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at the overnight low of 3,060.00 and then at Monday’s low of 3,027.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit a record high in early U.S. trading as the bulls are in firm control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight record high of 10,204.50 and then at 10,300.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 10,000.00 and then at Monday’s low of 9,843.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 178 1/32 and then at 178 14/32. Shorter-term support lies at 176 even and then at 175 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 138.30.5 and then at 139.03.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 138.12.0 and then at 138.07.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral to bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 97.215 and then at Monday’s high of 97.700. Shorter-term support is seen at 96.500 and then at 96.250. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a nearly four-month high in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend on the daily chart has restarted. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $41.57 and then at $42.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $40.00 and then at Monday’s low of $39.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

US grain futures are weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls are fading this week and need a fresh spark. Wheat bulls are already on the ropes, seeing serious technical damage to also suggest that corn and soybeans will find it hard to sustain rallies. Grain market bulls need a weather market to develop in the U.S. Corn Belt and the clock is ticking as the most critical part of the growing season approaches for corn—early July.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff