The U.S. stock market bulls are on a roll as the major indexes this week hit contract and record highs and continue to see prices trend higher. The Nasdaq and S&P e-mini futures markets have recently seen bullish upside “breakouts” from sideways trading ranges at higher levels on the daily bar charts. This suggests another solid leg up in prices in the coming weeks, or longer. There are no early technical clues the U.S. stock indexes will peak out anytime soon. Remember, “the trend is your friend” in trading markets. Stay tuned!–Jim
Daily Morning Report
U.S. Stock Market Hovers Near Record Highs at Mid-Week
Wednesday, November 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed in uneventful trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.
Trader and investor risk appetite remains upbeat at mid-week, amid no major developments on the U.S.-China trade front and no geopolitical flare-ups. The sense of the marketplace now is that a partial U.S.-China trade deal will be signed soon. The Chinese currency, the yuan, hit a three-month high versus the U.S. dollar this week and dropped back below the key 7-per-dollar level, as Chinese traders also reckon a signed trade deal is close.
In overnight news, the Euro zone October services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) came in at 52.2 versus expectations for a reading of 51.8.
The Euro zone economic workhorse Germany got a better manufacturing report on Wednesday. September manufacturing orders were up 1.3% from August, which handily beat expectations for a rise of just 0.1%. However, manufacturing order in September were down 5.4% from the same time last year.
The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $57.15 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, preliminary productivity and costs, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, and the global services PMI.
–Jim
U.S.-China Trade Deal Inching Closer; Risk Aversion Low
Tuesday, November 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Asian and European stock indexes were mostly up in trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modest gains and new all-time highs when the New York day session begins.
Risk sentiment worldwide remains upbeat amid ideas the U.S. and China are very close to a partial trade deal, called “Phase 1.” There are reports China is now pushing the U.S. to roll back some more tariffs on Chinese imports, with the U.S. possibly agreeing to such to get the deal sealed.
In overnight news, the Euro zone September producer price index was reported up 0.1% from August and down 1.2%, year-on-year. The report is a reminder that very low inflation in most of the major world economies is still a problem.
The OPEC oil cartel has issued a report saying booming U.S. shale oil production will likely keep the cartel constraining its own oil output for at least the next five years. I have covered the energy markets for 35 years and the U.S. shale oil production technology coming on line about 10 years ago has been the most fundamentally game-changing development of all the markets I have followed the past three decades.
The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $57.00 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the international trade report, the U.S. services PMI, the ISN non-manufacturing report, and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index.
–Jim
Crude Oil Hits 6-Week High, Prices Trending Up
The Nymex crude oil bulls are back in business in early November as prices have just hit a six-week high and they are trending up from the October low. There is some stiff overhead resistance just above the market, as seen by the line on the chart. If bulls can push prices above that resistance line, then look for a challenge of key resistance at $60.00 to be the bulls’ next upside objective. Stay tuned!–Jim
U.S. Stock Market Hits Record High Amid Little Risk Aversion
Monday, November 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Asian and European stock indexes were mostly up in trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and new all-time highs when the New York day session begins.
Trader and investor risk appetite remains upbeat at present, amid no major geopolitical hotspots that are flaring up to rattle the world marketplace. Adding to upbeat attitudes are the latest reports on the U.S.-China trade front that say a partial deal is close to being signed.
China is set to launch new cryptocurrency backed by gold, reports over the weekend said. Said one analyst: “It may take some time for the investing public to trust China’s backing of the new gold cryptocurrency.
In other news, the Euro zone reported its October manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) was 45.9 versus 45.6 in September and expectations for an October reading of 45.7. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector. The German manufacturing PMI was reported at 42.1 in October.
The key “outside markets” find Nymex crude oil prices firmer in early U.S. trading today and trading around $56.80 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly up.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the ISM New York report on business, the employment trends index, the global manufacturing PMI, and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.
–Jim
Upbeat China Manufacturing Data Boosts Asian Shares; U.S. Jobs Report on Deck Friday A.M.
Friday, November 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Asian and European stock indexes were mostly up in trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins.
In overnight news, China’s Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 51.7 in October versus 51.4 in September and 51.0 forecast. The October reading was the strongest since February of 2017. This news supported buying in equities markets in Asia.
The European Central Bank has a new president starting Friday—Chritine Lagarde, the former director of the International Monetary Fund. Mario Draghi was the previous ECB president.
The marketplace is awaiting the U.S. employment situation report for October from the Labor Department that is due out this morning. That’s arguably the most important U.S. economic report of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast up a modest 75,000 jobs.
The key “outside markets” find Nymex crude oil prices firmer in early U.S. trading today and trading around $54.50 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly lower.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM manufacturing report on business, domestic auto industry sales and construction spending.
–Jim