The Euro currency is one of the most popularly traded futures markets in the world. See on the daily bar chart for the March Euro that bulls had faded last week but are working this week to restart a price uptrend. It will take a move above the resistance line at the October high to give the bulls the technical power to suggest a price uptrend can be sustained. A drop in Euro prices below chart support at this week’s low would give the bears fresh power to suggest more selling pressure. Stay tuned!–Jim
Daily Morning Report
U.S.-China Trade Agreement Doubts Resurface, Denting Investor Risk Appetite
Thursday, October 31–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed in trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.
Risk appetite has been dented Thursday on reports the U.S.-China trade talks have taken a step backwards. This should not really be a surprise to anybody. Over the past many months traders and investors have been on a rollercoaster ride regarding progress or lack thereof in the trade negotiations between the two largest economies in the world. The latest reports are coming out of China, whereby Chinese officials Thursday expressed doubts about a complete trade deal with the U.S. ever being completed.
In other overnight news, the Euro zone reported its third-quarter GDP at up a paltry 0.2% from the second quarter and up 1.1%, year-on-year.
Meantime, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) was reported at 49.3 in October versus 49.8 in September and a forecast of 49.8. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector.
Hong Kong’s third-quarter GDP was reported down 2.9%, year-on-year, amid that city-state’s ongoing civil unrest.
The world marketplace is today digesting Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC decision to lower U.S. interest rates by 0.25%. That move was expected, but market watchers deemed the wording of the FOMC statement and Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference as suggesting the Fed is now on hold for further interest rate reductions.
The key “outside markets” find Nymex crude oil prices weaker in early U.S. trading today and trading around $54.75 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is solidly lower.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the employment cost index, personal income and outlays, and the ISM-Chicago business survey.
–Jim
FOMC Conclusion Wed. PM Awaited; U.S. Rate Cut Expected
Wednesday, October 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Asian and European stock indexes were mostly weaker in trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.
Focus of traders and investors today is squarely on the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. It’s widely expected the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.25%. What is not so clear is the glide path the Fed will issue on future monetary policy moves in this afternoon’s statement and the follow-up press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Look for active trading in the markets, including the metals, in afternoon trading Wednesday following the FOMC statement.
Also on Wednesday morning the first estimate of third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product is out, and is seen at up 1.6% on an annual basis.
The U.S. ADP national employment report is also out Wednesday morning, expected to show a rise of 100,000 jobs in October. This report precedes the more important jobs report from the Labor Department out Friday morning.
In overnight news, the Euro zone issued its October economic sentiment indicator and it came in at the lowest level in 4.5 years.
The key “outside markets” find Nymex crude oil prices near steady in early U.S. trading today and trading around $55.50 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly lower.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
Bullish Upside “Breakouts” for S&P, Nasdaq Stock Indexes
The S&P and Nasdaq stock index futures markets have this week produced bullish upside “breakouts” above what was strong support at the recent highs. Both indexes also hit contract and record highs this week. The bulls have now gained good technical power to suggest another solid leg up in prices in the near term. Stay tuned!–Jim
FOMC Meeting on Deck; Many Markets in Pause Mode, Awaiting Fed Decision
Tuesday, October 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Asian and European stock indexes were mostly weaker in quieter trading overnight, as the FOMC meets today. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes scored record highs on Monday. Trader and investor optimism remains elevated early this week amid reports from China and the U.S. that their Phase 1 part of a trade deal is nearly ready for signing.
It’s a very big U.S. economic data week, highlighted by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that starts Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. It’s widely expected the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.25%. What is not so clear is the glide path the Fed will issue on future monetary policy moves.
On Wednesday the gross domestic product report is out and on Friday comes the employment report from the Labor Department. Other key reports are also out this week.
The key “outside markets” find Nymex crude oil prices weaker in early U.S. trading today and trading around $55.00 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is higher.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, pending home sales, and the consumer confidence index.
–Jim
Big U.S. Data Week Lies Just Ahead
Monday, October 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Asian and European stock indexes were mostly up overnight and are now at or near their highs for the year. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor optimism remains elevated as weekend reports from China said the Phase 1 part of the U.S.-China trade deal is nearly ready for signing.
The markets are not reacting to the weekend news the U.S. military eliminated the world’s top ISIS terrorist leader.
There was more downbeat economic data coming out of China, as the world’s second-largest economy over the weekend reported its industrial sector profits declined significantly in September.
It’s a very big U.S. economic data week, highlighted by the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meets that starts Tuesday and the important U.S. jobs report that’s out Friday morning. It’s also the busiest week of the U.S. corporate earnings reports season.
Metals traders will see one of the bigger weeks of the year for their markets, as its LME Week in London.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices slightly weaker in early U.S. trading today and trading around $56.50 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly down.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index, advance economic indicators and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.
–Jim