The Nymex crude oil bulls are back in business in early November as prices have just hit a six-week high and they are trending up from the October low. There is some stiff overhead resistance just above the market, as seen by the line on the chart. If bulls can push prices above that resistance line, then look for a challenge of key resistance at $60.00 to be the bulls’ next upside objective. Stay tuned!–Jim
Daily Morning Report
U.S. Stock Market Hits Record High Amid Little Risk Aversion
Monday, November 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Asian and European stock indexes were mostly up in trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and new all-time highs when the New York day session begins.
Trader and investor risk appetite remains upbeat at present, amid no major geopolitical hotspots that are flaring up to rattle the world marketplace. Adding to upbeat attitudes are the latest reports on the U.S.-China trade front that say a partial deal is close to being signed.
China is set to launch new cryptocurrency backed by gold, reports over the weekend said. Said one analyst: “It may take some time for the investing public to trust China’s backing of the new gold cryptocurrency.
In other news, the Euro zone reported its October manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) was 45.9 versus 45.6 in September and expectations for an October reading of 45.7. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector. The German manufacturing PMI was reported at 42.1 in October.
The key “outside markets” find Nymex crude oil prices firmer in early U.S. trading today and trading around $56.80 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly up.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the ISM New York report on business, the employment trends index, the global manufacturing PMI, and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.
–Jim
Upbeat China Manufacturing Data Boosts Asian Shares; U.S. Jobs Report on Deck Friday A.M.
Friday, November 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Asian and European stock indexes were mostly up in trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins.
In overnight news, China’s Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 51.7 in October versus 51.4 in September and 51.0 forecast. The October reading was the strongest since February of 2017. This news supported buying in equities markets in Asia.
The European Central Bank has a new president starting Friday—Chritine Lagarde, the former director of the International Monetary Fund. Mario Draghi was the previous ECB president.
The marketplace is awaiting the U.S. employment situation report for October from the Labor Department that is due out this morning. That’s arguably the most important U.S. economic report of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast up a modest 75,000 jobs.
The key “outside markets” find Nymex crude oil prices firmer in early U.S. trading today and trading around $54.50 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly lower.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM manufacturing report on business, domestic auto industry sales and construction spending.
–Jim
Euro Currency Bulls Work to Restart Price Uptrend
The Euro currency is one of the most popularly traded futures markets in the world. See on the daily bar chart for the March Euro that bulls had faded last week but are working this week to restart a price uptrend. It will take a move above the resistance line at the October high to give the bulls the technical power to suggest a price uptrend can be sustained. A drop in Euro prices below chart support at this week’s low would give the bears fresh power to suggest more selling pressure. Stay tuned!–Jim
U.S.-China Trade Agreement Doubts Resurface, Denting Investor Risk Appetite
Thursday, October 31–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed in trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.
Risk appetite has been dented Thursday on reports the U.S.-China trade talks have taken a step backwards. This should not really be a surprise to anybody. Over the past many months traders and investors have been on a rollercoaster ride regarding progress or lack thereof in the trade negotiations between the two largest economies in the world. The latest reports are coming out of China, whereby Chinese officials Thursday expressed doubts about a complete trade deal with the U.S. ever being completed.
In other overnight news, the Euro zone reported its third-quarter GDP at up a paltry 0.2% from the second quarter and up 1.1%, year-on-year.
Meantime, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) was reported at 49.3 in October versus 49.8 in September and a forecast of 49.8. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector.
Hong Kong’s third-quarter GDP was reported down 2.9%, year-on-year, amid that city-state’s ongoing civil unrest.
The world marketplace is today digesting Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC decision to lower U.S. interest rates by 0.25%. That move was expected, but market watchers deemed the wording of the FOMC statement and Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference as suggesting the Fed is now on hold for further interest rate reductions.
The key “outside markets” find Nymex crude oil prices weaker in early U.S. trading today and trading around $54.75 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is solidly lower.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the employment cost index, personal income and outlays, and the ISM-Chicago business survey.
–Jim
FOMC Conclusion Wed. PM Awaited; U.S. Rate Cut Expected
Wednesday, October 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Asian and European stock indexes were mostly weaker in trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.
Focus of traders and investors today is squarely on the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. It’s widely expected the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.25%. What is not so clear is the glide path the Fed will issue on future monetary policy moves in this afternoon’s statement and the follow-up press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Look for active trading in the markets, including the metals, in afternoon trading Wednesday following the FOMC statement.
Also on Wednesday morning the first estimate of third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product is out, and is seen at up 1.6% on an annual basis.
The U.S. ADP national employment report is also out Wednesday morning, expected to show a rise of 100,000 jobs in October. This report precedes the more important jobs report from the Labor Department out Friday morning.
In overnight news, the Euro zone issued its October economic sentiment indicator and it came in at the lowest level in 4.5 years.
The key “outside markets” find Nymex crude oil prices near steady in early U.S. trading today and trading around $55.50 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly lower.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim