The Euro currency futures is one of the most popularly traded futures market in the world. See on the daily bar chart for the March Euro currency that prices are starting to trend higher and the bulls have gained some strength to suggest a market bottom is in place. It will take a move above chart resistance at the 1.1300 level to give the bulls fresh power to suggest the price uptrend can be sustained. A drop below the support line seen on the chart would negate the fledgling price uptrend and give the bears renewed power. Stay tuned!–Jim
Daily Morning Report
World Stock Markets Mixed Friday; No Geopolitical Hot Spots at Present
Friday, October 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite remains mostly upbeat as U.S. stock indexes are hovering not far below their all-time highs scored earlier this year.
The Russian central bank on Friday cut its main interest rate by 0.5%, to 6.5%. The move pressured the Russian currency, the ruble.
In other overnight news, the European Central Bank lower its expectations for Euro zone economic growth in the coming years, at 1.1% in 2019, at 1.0% in 2020, and at 1.3% in 2021. The ECB forecast inflation for the same three years at 1.2%,1.2% and 1.4%, respectively.
Reports say the U.S. and China continue to hash out “Phase 1” of their trade agreement reached a couple weeks ago. The U.S. is pushing China to purchase more U.S. ag products in exchange for the U.S. eliminating some of its tariffs on Chinese imports. While it appears the trade talks have made progress, veteran market watchers know “the devil is in the details.”
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices slightly weaker in early U.S. trading today and trading around $56.00 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is near steady.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
Central Bank Meetings in Focus Thursday, as Draghi Departs
Thursday, October 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Focus in the U.S. stock market is on a heavy slate of corporate earnings reports this week.
The European Central Bank is holding its regular monetary policy meeting Thursday, which is the last one for outgoing ECB chief Mario Draghi. No major changes in ECB monetary policy is expected at this meeting.
The central bank of Indonesia cut its interest rates today, with Turkey expected to do the same today. The central banks of Sweden and Norway held their interest rates steady at meetings today.
The Euro zone October composite purchasing managers index (PMI) came out at 50.2, which was slightly below expectations. The manufacturing PMI in October was 45.7. A reading below 50.0 suggests contraction in the sector. Germany, the workhorse of the Euro zone economy, had a manufacturing PMI reading of 41.9 in October.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices weaker in early U.S. trading today and trading around $55.50 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly up on a mild corrective bounce from recent selling pressure that drove the index to a nine-week low earlier this week.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, durable goods orders, the U.S. flash manufacturing and services PMIs, new residential sales and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.
–Jim
Nymex Crude Oil Prices Stabilize, Suggesting Choppy Trading
The Nymex crude oil futures market has stabilized and rebounded a bit from strong chart support levels below the market. This suggests prices in the coming weeks will likely chop in a sideways range–barring a major geopolitical event in the Middle East that would spike prices higher for at least a short period of time. Longer-term, I see crude oil prices trading in a range between $50 and $60 in the coming months, or longer. Stay tuned!–Jim
Brexit Uncertainty Featured at Mid-Week, Creating a Bit of Risk Aversion
Wednesday, October 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed but mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Caterpillar reported a big earnings miss to the downside this morning, which is pressuring U.S. stock indexes.
The Brexit uncertainty is still weighing on European equities and even some global stock markets, to a lesser degree. The British Parliament is wrangling with U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson on the timing of the U.K. leaving the European Union. Johnson wants a resolution to the matter and a Brexit sooner. Parliament is divided on the topic. Right now, October 31 is the official Brexit date.
The Indian Diwali festival begins Friday. Gold demand from Indian consumers usually rises during the festival. However, reports say Indian consumer gold demand could decrease up to 50% this year due to higher gold prices and an increase the country’s gold import duty.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices higher in early U.S. trading today and trading around $54.20 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly up on a mild corrective bounce from recent selling pressure that drove the index to a nine-week low earlier this week.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the monthly house price index and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
Trader/Investor Attitudes Still Mostly Upbeat Tuesday
Tuesday, October 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. stock indexes are close to their all-time highs scored earlier this year.
Trader and investor attitudes worldwide remain generally upbeat early this week. The U.S.-China trade negotiations appear to be progressing. President Trump said Monday afternoon the talks are “coming along very well,” suggesting a trade agreement between the world’s two largest economies could be signed as early as next month.
The Brexit situation remains in limbo this week, after a hoped-for weekend deal between the U.K. and the European Union fell through. The British Parliament is moving to again delay a vote to seal the Brexit deal. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants a resolution to the matter sooner. The uncertainty of the matter is prompting some risk aversion from European traders.
European Union officials have warned five countries about the EU budget constricts not being met, which is also causing some concern among European market watchers.
A heavy slate of U.S. corporate earnings reports this week is the focus of U.S. stock market traders, amid no fresh geopolitical flare-ups at present.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices firmer in early U.S. trading today and trading around $53.50 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly up on a mild corrective bounce from recent selling pressure that drove the index to a nine-week low on Monday.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the Richmond Fed business survey, and existing home sales.
–Jim