The Nymex crude oil futures market this week hit a four-month high and in doing so restarted a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. This suggests more sideways-to-higher price action in the near term, including a challenge of major technical resistance at $60.00 per barrel. Stay tuned!
Daily Morning Report
Traders, Investors Remain Upbeat to End the Trading Week
Friday, March 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Asian and European stocks were mostly higher overnight, while U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.
The raw commodity sector has been given a boost by news that on April 1 China plans to further cut taxes on its businesses and citizens in an effort to stimulate the world’s second-largest economy and the world’s largest raw commodity importer. This news comes after China’s central bank recently eased its monetary policy following a few months of downbeat economic data, due in part to the U.S.-China trade war.
In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index in February rose 0.3% from January and was up 1.5%, year-on-year. Those numbers were in line with market expectations and continue a theme of low and non-problematic inflation in the major world economies.
The Brexit saga continues to play out with no “soft Brexit” deal in place, ahead of the March 29 “hard exit” (no deal) for the U.K. to leave the European Union. While this matter has the attention of the world marketplace, it is not impacting most markets in any significant way, save for the British Pound and U.K. equities.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices slightly up and trading around $58.70 a barrel. Oil prices did hit a four-month high overnight.
U.S. economic reports due for release Friday include the Empire State manufacturing survey, industrial production and capacity utilization, Treasury international capital data and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
Equity Markets Pause Amid Some “Speed Bumps” in the Road
Thursday, March 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Asian stock were lower overnight and and European stock markets were mostly higher. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.
British lawmakers voted late Wednesday on another Brexit plan that said the U.K. would not do a “hard Brexit” on March 29, the date for which the U.K. is set to leave the European Union. Now, the Parliament is expected to vote Thursday on a plan to delay Brexit. However, any extension of the Brexit date must get EU approval. The marketplace is reading this as positive that a “soft Brexit” will occur down the road. While somewhat impacting the European markets, the current Brexit uncertainty is not a major element moving world stock and financial markets.
In other overnight news, China’s industrial output fell to a 17-year low in February, at up just 0.43% from January. Year-on-year, the number was up 5.3%. This report could be weighing on the gold futures market today, which is scoring double-digit losses. China’s economy is the major metals consumer worldwide.
In the back-and-forth rhetoric on the U.S.-China trade war front, President Trump said Wednesday he is in “no rush” to ink a trade deal with China, and reiterated the deal must meet U.S. demands. The past few days had seen the marketplace more optimistic regarding a trade agreement between the world’s two largest economies getting completed soon.
The outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $58.32 a barrel.
U.S. economic reports due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, import and export prices, and new residential sales.
–Jim
U.S. Stock Index Bulls Make Strong Recovery This Week
The U.S. stock indexes last week saw their near-term price uptrends on the daily bar charts at least temporarily negated and the bears had gained some technical strength. However, at mid-week this week the S&P e-mini and Nasdaq stock index futures had made strong recoveries and the bulls are now working to restart the aforementioned price uptrends. More price gains in the U.S. stock indexes the rest of this week would put the bulls right back in the driver’s set to suggest more price gains in the next few weeks. Stay tuned!
World Stock Markets Mixed Overnight; Brexit in Focus, but Not a Major Markets-Mover
Wednesday, March 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. There are still no major geopolitical hotspots to roil the marketplace and dent the keener trader and investor risk appetite.
British lawmakers voted late Tuesday on another Brexit plan offered by Prime Minister Theresa May, but despite some last-minute concessions from the European Union, the U.K. Parliament voted down May’s plan. The British pound was pressured on the news, even though a no-vote was expected by the marketplace. The U.K. is scheduled to leave the EU at month’s end.
In other overnight news, the Euro zone industrial output in January rose 1.4% from December but was down 1.1%, year-on-year. Those numbers were better than expectations but they also underscore an anemic Euro zone economy.
Gold prices are solidly higher and hit a two-week high overnight on chart-based buying and perceived bargain hunting following losses in late-February and early March.
The U.S. economic data point of the day is the producer price index report for February, seen up 0.2% from January. Tuesday’s U.S. consumer price index report was also tame and did help to lift U.S. Treasury prices.
The outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower on a corrective pullback from recent gains that put the index at a new high for the year last week. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $57.50 a barrel.
U.S. economic reports due for release Wednesday include the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the producer price index, durable goods orders, construction spending and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
Not Much Market Risk Presently is Bullish for Equities
Tuesday, March 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.
There is not much trader and investor anxiety in the world marketplace at present, which is bullish for world stock markets.
Reports say U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lightizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Monday held talks with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He regarding key elements of the proposed U.S.-China trade agreement, according to China’s Xinhua News Agency. Marketplace attitudes are upbeat early this week on a trade deal getting done soon.
British lawmakers vote today on another Brexit plan offered by Prime Minister Theresa May. Despite some last-minute concessions from the European Union, the U.K. Parliament is expected to vote down May’s plan.
The key U.S. economic data point early this week is today’s consumer price index report for February, which is expected to come in at up 0.2% from January and up 2.2%, year-on-year.
The outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower on a corrective pullback from recent gains that put the index at a new high for the year last week. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around below $57.50 a barrel.
U.S. economic reports due for release Tuesday include the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, and the consumer price index.
–Jim