Daily Morning Report

Tuesday, May 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note sees its yield back above 3.0% today.

A downbeat economic growth report from the European Union helped to weigh on equities. First-quarter Euro zone GDP growth came in at up a paltry 0.4%–down from the 0.7% growth rate (quarter-on-quarter) seen in the fourth quarter of last year. Year-on-year 1Q GDP was up 2.5%.

There was a mixed bag of economic data coming out of China today. Industrial output was up more than expected, but retail sales were down more than expected.

Focus of the marketplace this week is on U.S. trade meetings with China that are scheduled to begin in the U.S. today, and a possible U.S. decision on the NAFTA trade agreement with Canada and Mexico.

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The grain market bulls have faded recently, as the U.S. planting and growing season is under way. Recent good planting progress, after some early-season delays, and good soil moisture conditions in the Corn Belt, are bearish elements for the grains at present. However, odds are high that a “weather scare” in the U.S. Midwest at some point this summer will goose grain prices higher. Such an event occurs nearly every year, to varying degrees. Keep reading my daily markets updates for the early clues on developing weather markets in the grains. Stay tuned!

Monday, May 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed in quieter trading overnight. European indexes were mostly weaker and Asian stocks were mostly higher. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

Focus of the marketplace this week will be on U.S. trade meetings with China that begin in the U.S. Tuesday, and a possible U.S. decision on the NAFTA trade agreement with Mexico.

The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices slightly lower and trading above $70.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker on profit taking after hitting a 4.5-month high last week.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday.

–Jim

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The U.S. dollar index is a basket of six major world currencies stacked up against the greenback. See on the daily bar chart that the USDX is in an accelerating uptrend and this week hit a 4.5-month high. The greenback bulls are in firm technical control, to suggest more gains for at least the near term. It’s also important to note that trends in the currency markets tend to be stronger and longer-lasting than trends in other markets. Stay tuned!

Thursday, May 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

The marketplace is not seeing a significant reaction from renewed Syria-Israeli military action, as both sides conducted air strikes against the other the past 24 hours. Still, it appears the Middle East has once again become a geopolitical flashpoint for the markets. That’s bullish for crude oil and safe-haven gold and silver.

Traders are awaiting the conclusion of the Bank of England’s regular monetary policy meeting today.

The U.S. economic highlight today will be the consumer price index for April, which is expected to come in up 0.3% from March, and be up 2.5% at an annual rate.

The “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices higher, at a new 3.5-year high, and trading near $72.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower on profit taking after hitting a 4.5-month high Wednesday.

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