Daily Morning Report

Thursday, April 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite has again quickly returned to the marketplace Thursday morning, as fears have somewhat eased regarding a potential U.S.-China trade war. Traders tend to initially factor in worst-case scenarios on expected events and then ratchet down those expectations. Still, there are no strong signs the U.S. and China will not proceed with their intended trade sanctions on each other. In the near term, look for more market volatility coming from this situation.

In overnight news, the Euro zone producer price index for February came in at up 0.1% from January and up 1.6%, year-on-year. Those numbers were just a bit higher than expected, but not considered problematic.

Traders are turning their attention to Friday morning’s important U.S. employment situation report for March from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to come in at up 178,000. Wednesday’s ADP jobs number came in much higher than expected, at up 241,000, which hints Friday’s job number may also come in hot.

The key “outside markets” on Thursday morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading just above $63.00 a barrel.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the international trade report, and the global services purchasing managers index (PMI).

–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Trading has been choppy but a downtrend line is still in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 2,667.00 and then at 2,680.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,644.00 and then at 2,625.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

June Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 6,654.50 and 6,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,574.00 and then at 6,500.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking from recent gains. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 145 16/32 and then at 146 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 144 27/32 and then at 144 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.23.5 and then at 121.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 120.18.0 and then at 120.12.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral to bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 90.025 and then at the March high of 90.490. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 89.415 and then at 89.250. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $63.86 and then at $64.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $62.50 and then at this week’s low of $62.06. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures were higher overnight. Fears of a U.S.-China trade war are still scaring grain traders a bit, but now the potential tariffs on U.S. ag products may be mostly factored into grain futures prices.

Wednesday, April 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward sharply lower openings when the New York day session begins.

Fears of a global trade war have ratcheted up a notch after China today announced a big list of U.S. products on which it intends to slap new tariffs. These products include cars, soybeans and airplanes. This action follows a U.S. announcement of new U.S. duties on Chinese imports on Tuesday. While the U.S. and China have said they will begin negotiations to resolve their trade dispute, this tit-for-tat action has the world marketplace experiencing significant anxiety as the world’s number-one and number-two economies square off.

Safe-haven assets gold, silver and U.S. Treasuries are rallying today on the keener risk aversion in the marketplace.

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The U.S.-China trade dispute is making world stock markets very wobbly, which in turn is boosting safe-haven U.S. Treasury bonds and notes prices. See on the daily bar chart for June U.S. T-Bonds that prices are in an accelerating uptrend. The bulls have upside technical momentum to suggest more price advances in the near term. Stay tuned!

Tuesday, April 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were lower overnight, following the sharp losses seen in the U.S. stock market on Monday that saw the indexes hit seven-week lows. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings, on corrective bounces, when the New York day session begins.

Fears of a global trade war have been stoked further by China’s retaliatory actions after the U.S. recently slapped the world’s second-largest economy with trade sanctions. While the U.S. and China have begun negotiations to resolve their trade dispute, the world marketplace is nonetheless rattled by the matter.

Gold prices, U.S. Treasury bonds and notes, and the U.S dollar index rallied Monday, on safe-haven demand.

The key “outside markets” on Tuesday morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading just above $63.00 a barrel.

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Thursday, March 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Still, world stock markets have become wobbly again, which favors the bears and still suggests major market tops are in place for the stock indexes.

The shaky global stocks markets this week have boosted safe-haven U.S. Treasury prices to multi-week highs. Yet, to the chagrin of gold bugs, their yellow metal has sold off. However, it’s my bias the gold and silver markets’ prices would benefit from continued higher volatility in world equity markets in the near term.

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This week has seen the U.S. stock indexes see the return of higher volatility, and that’s not bullish. See on the daily chart for the S&P e-mini June futures the high volatility that has been in place since the long price uptrend fizzled out in January. See at the bottom of the chart that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is in a bearish posture, as the blue trigger line is below the red MACD line and both lines are trending lower. It is my bias that the U.S. stock indexes have put in major market tops, due to the serious technical damage that has been inflicted over the past two months. Stay tuned!