Daily Morning Report

Wednesday, April 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly higher again overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Strong first-quarter corporate earnings reports are driving the bulls this week, while geopolitics has taken a back seat, for now. Risk appetite is keen so far this week, which is bullish for the stock market and bearish for safe-haven gold.

In overnight news, China effectively slightly eased its monetary policy Wednesday by lowering the reserve requirement ratio for its banks.

The Euro zone consumer price index for March was reported up 1.0% from February and up 1.3%, year-on-year. Those numbers were very close to market expectations.

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Tuesday, April 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is back in the marketplace early this week. Focus has turned from geopolitics to generally strong global corporate earnings reports.

In overnight news, China’s annual economic growth came in at 6.8% in the first quarter, which was slightly higher than expected and on pace with 2017’s gross domestic product growth rate.

The Group of Seven industrial nations (G-7) on Tuesday came out with a statement that supported the U.S.-led missile strikes on Syria and condemned the use of chemical weapons in warfare.

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The U.S. dollar index is a basket of six major world currencies weighted against the greenback. The USDX is an important “outside market” that can have a daily impact on many other markets. See on the daily bar chart for the USDX June futures that price action has been choppy and sideways for weeks. The direction in which the index breaks out of the trading range, defined by the support and resistance lines on the chart, will likely be the direction of the next trending move. Stay tuned!

Monday, April 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace mostly took in stride the U.S.-led missile attack on Syria on Saturday. The outcome is what most had expected to happen when they went home for the weekend on Friday. However, what is still uncertain is if more U.S. missile strikes are coming, and how Russia will react to the situation. The U.S. is preparing to slap more economic sanctions on Russia. Still, the sense of traders and investors at present is that the conflict will not escalate.

The key U.S. data point of the day will be the March retail sales report. Forecasters expect sales in March rose 0.3%.

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Friday, April 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. This week has seen a marked improvement in trader and investor risk appetite, despite rising tensions between the U.S., Russia and Syria. The perceived improving prospects for a negotiated trade agreement between the U.S. and China—the world’s two largest economies—have put the marketplace more at ease.

The key “outside markets” on Friday morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading above $67.00 a barrel. Crude oil prices hit a 3.5-year high overnight.

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The June e-mini S&P stock index futures prices are in a downtrend, as seen on the daily bar chart. The recent “collapse in volatility” in the index, which is defined by at least three price bars in a row being much smaller (smaller daily trading ranges), suggests a much bigger price move is on the horizon. Given that prices are in a downtrend, technical odds favor the bigger price move that is likely forthcoming being on the downside. Stay tuned!