Daily Morning Report

Monday, October 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

The war of words between the U.S. and North Korea flared up again over the weekend. After the U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson suggested there is some dialogue taking place with North Korea regarding its nuclear missiles, President Trump then tweeted “save your energy Rex.” So far, the world markets are not reacting strongly to the weekend developments on the geopolitical front.

As the month of October begins, the month of September turned out to be one of the least volatile months for the U.S. stock market in over 65 years.

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The U.S. Treasury bond and notes futures market bulls have run into a buzz saw the past couple weeks. See on the daily bar chart for December T-Bond futures that prices are in a solid downtrend and have hit a two-month low. Ideas of better world economic growth prospects and major central banks tightening their monetary policies in the near futures have helped to sink the U.S. Treasury markets. It’s likely going to take a geopolitical scare to ignite a U.S. Treasury market rally via flight-to-quality demand. Stay tuned!–Jim

Friday, September 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

Global stock markets were mostly firmer in quieter trading overnight. A lack of major news developments in the marketplace late this week is keeping equities subdued. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.

Gold prices are firmer today on short covering in the futures market and bargain hunting in the cash market, following this week’s selling pressure.

Friday is the last trading day of the month and of the quarter, which makes it an extra special day from a charting perspective. Monthly (or quarterly) high or low closes on the last trading day of the month (or quarter) are very technically significant.

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Thursday, September 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight, on hopes that a U.S. corporate tax-reform plan will boost economic growth not only in the U.S. but around the globe. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

Gold prices are slightly lower and hit a six-week low overnight. Better risk appetite in the marketplace this week, as well as a rallying U.S. dollar index, are bearish for the safe-haven metal.

World bond market yields are on the rise this week, on ideas that better world economic growth will prompt the major central banks to become less accommodative on their monetary policies. Odds are rising (now about 75%) that the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates in December.

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The U.S. dollar index is a basket of six major world currencies weighted against the greenback. See on the daily bar chart that the USDX hit a five-week high at mid-week. Also, a bullish head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily chart, to suggest the USDX has put in a market low. The greenback bears are having a very good week, but that’s been a bearish element for many raw commodity markets, which are priced in U.S. dollars on the world markets. Stay tuned!–Jim

Wednesday, September 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen delivered a speech Tuesday that sounded an arguably hawkish tone on U.S. monetary policy, and an upbeat tone on the U.S. economy. The world equity markets took this as a positive sign that a strengthening U.S. economy and rising inflation will help the other major industrialized countries’ economic growth prospects, as well as reignite some wanted inflation.

Gold prices are lower in pre-U.S.-day-session trading Wednesday. The surging U.S. dollar this week is a bearish element for the precious metals markets, as well as other raw commodity markets.

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